Member Info for Monty9

Sorry Rivaldo, no. The filed audited accounts to 30 Sept 2025 shows a pre tax loss of £340,000 and a profit of £18,000 the previous year. Hence my concern about the forecast £2.3 Million for the year to 30-9-26.

The half year earnings to 30-3-26 due on 25-5-26 will be a make or break one for me.

In the last results presentation of FY2025 on the Investor meet Company platform, management made a big deal of growing EBITDA and almost completely ignored the fact that pre tax profit had moved to a loss (Normalised EPS moved from +0.773p to -0.709p). I asked for an explanation of this and they basically dodged the question.

I also asked about the dramatic improvement in Normalised EPS forecast for FY2026 of 6.2p and for FY 2027 8.23p. Stockopedia show the analyst consensus is made up from just one broker, presumably the company's Broker and NOMAD, Singer Capital Markets. Mark Braund essentially stated it was nothing to do with management. In practice that is surprising and does not inspire confidence. I cannot believe Singer would leave such a forecast out there if the company's management don't believe it is achievable. If it is right, that would be a major achievement and a PE of about 7 and 6 in 2027! Possibly it is an error in Stockopedia's Refinitif data. All very strange.

Any clarification would be much appreciated!

I have held this stock since 2008 I think. Sold some at 80p on the way up and again around 80p on the way back down. So a satisfactory experience. I bought again when it dropped below 50p and thought I had just given some profit back to the market but kept on holding for one reason.

The reason is that, to me, the IP and existing manufacturing capacity seems fantastic. I think the 3D face recognition used by Apple uses their Gallium Arsenide wafers, for e.g.

Looking at the awful trading results since about 2020 I don't think the recent rise could be an improvement in trading outlook, at least not in such a short space of time. And the trading volumes suggest it is much more than PI's taking a punt, or even shorts covering. I don't know for certain, but suspect that two (or more) well funded organisations are buying, in effect, a share of the IP and operating assets. If that is correct we will see continuing fluctuation but a strong upward bias until, at some point, a deal is concluded. It could be very profitable for holders but will, of course, hand the interest in the future upside of the IP and assets to the acquirer.

In the meantime I am not buying more, nor top slicing what I have. I like to think that is how Charlie Munger would have played it...

Agree with all points you make. Indeed, despite showing a 50% loss on my original stake, I added recently. It has always struck me as a well run company with plenty of potential. It does, however, seem to be an extreme case of investors selling small companies unless the results are flawless. In REAT's case I think they suffered in the Pandemic but are now solidly cash positive and profitable.

I think their acquisition strategy could provide great growth potential from here too.

I also have a few IQE shares from an original purchase just over 9p in the naughties. I did manage to sell some at 80p on the way up and more at 80p on the way down, not a tenbagger but nevertheless a great punt. I still think the technology is potentially valuable hence the residual shareholding.

I agree with both Buz and JD about the quality of government over the last 25+ years but doubt that even a good government would have changed the fortunes of IQE much. If the tech does became world beating they would eventually move the manufacture to Asia or S America.

A lot of recent Director buying seems to have lifted price from 19.5 to 27 in the last two weeks.

So, crudely, an 11% drop for an 18% cash dividend.

As we reach the likely end of the Alphawave story as an independent company, I would like to express a big thank you to BlueRaphus for a regular supply of extremely useful information and opinion.

Personally, I am a little disappointed the story ended like this as I believe AWE had a lot to offer.

A chunky 7% + drop today. I am guessing it is in sympathy with the awful Revolution Beauty results announcement.

Well, the price has moved from 26p to 60p in the last 12 month period, latterly in a fairly straight line. News has been generally positive and trials, as far as I can see, universally successful. I hold and also use it in my car. I mostly drive in London's gridlocked streets so can't comment on mpg, but the MOT showed emissions dramatically lower than the prior year after just two tank-fills. The engine also feels progressively smoother - I started adding it at 51,000 miles.

Unsurprisingly I also hold the shares. There are many things that can go wrong for a small company in a big boy's market but it is also possible this could multi-bag massively.

The company's services could grow massively and fast. But the recent bull run and and increase just today of 15% smells more like a takeover brewing to me. Its specialisation in the DDOS protection market might make it a very useful add on to a large IT vendor.

It would be a shame; I have held for years hoping it would reach maturity without any major accidents. Even at say 50p its only a £250M Market cap. If it stays independent it still has multi bagger potential from here.

The IP will go with the operation and I suspect the opportunity to persue legal claims. More likely the company will simply collect what it can and return funds to shareholders. Surprising how expensive the professionals can make this sort of admin though :-(

I was also surprised by the almost 10% fall on announcement of pretty decent results, albeit without some of the stunning organic growth from previous periods. Even so, the PEG ratio is 0.3 so if they continue to deliver to expectations the company is seriously cheap.

Personally, to keep debt levels lower, I would prefer to see the fairly trivial dividend not paid while they continue with acquisitions. It may be that a number of the larger backers are keen to see some return, which is understandable. Provided they do keep the balance sheet tidy I think it will be OK.

Well, they certainly didn't soft soap it. Refreshing in a way - brutal but seemingly very accurate . I can't help feeling the medicine may have done more damage than good, a symptom of our bureaucratic approach to life these days I suppose. Too many incentives for the Skilled person to extend the assignment at an eyewatering hourly charge rate.

Having said that JIM does seem to have a strong business and should shortly be free to expand it. Hopefully they will be free of this process and leaner and meaner by year end.

"Retrospectively, the last year delivered an exceptional 122% gain to the company's bottom line. Still, EPS has barely risen at all from three years ago in total, which is not ideal".

Stockopedia shows EPS in 2121 as 3.69, 2022 as 8.11, 2023 as 18. 2024 forecast Normalised 22.8. That cannot be described as barely risen. The PEG is shown at 1.5 which means its growth is not far behind its PE 'return'. Given the quality of the business growth over the last few years that does not look demanding.

However I would expect some profit taking after a run like we have seen.

Aside from the technicals we wait to see how their new relationship with WallMart works out.... that could be substantial.

I sold on hearing the announcement. I doubt PI's will benefit from this because it is in the principle shareholders interest to keep the price as low as possible. The business is largely load financed anyway (which made the equity an interesting punt).

The way the whole thing was conducted smelled bad to me, so I took my gains and cried all the way to the bank.

It has only an £19M market cap now, so relatively small volumes will cause a decent price movement (both directions). I bought more recently as a punt; if they survive there is no reason I can see to prevent them recovering to trading on a level at least as good as it was prior to the pandemic.

Personally I think the company is very well run, with the China aspect necessary to meet the required price points. A lot of Apple phones are manufactured in China so the QA is likely a question of, again, effective management. Of course the market has become increasingly concerned about over-reliance on Asian and particularly Chinese production, so I think Warpaint are sensibly broadening their supply base.

I certainly support the de-risking. Not so much because of the quality of product - the big retailers will make sure they get what they require, but more the possibility of a worsening of the geo-political environment.

The 2022 Annual Report states that supply is from a mix of suppliers in Europe and China (P9).

The Risk section (P19) states on manufacturer provides about 22% of colour cosmetics (I imagine the biggest item offered) down from 24% in 2021. They state they intend to reduce this in future.

It would, I agree, to see a more detailed statement of sources of their manufacture somewhere in the report.

All points well made Oogle. Furthermore, I too would prefer to not receive interest (I do keep some cash with brokers for quick access should I want to trade). It gets taxed at your top rate but the resultant higher dealing costs are not relieved against tax. So more expense to me on a net basis, and the hassle of adding small amounts to my tax return.

So thanks for nothing Skilled Person(s) FCA and Government. It is you who are on the gravy train, not the private investment community who, I understand, are voting to leave is.

Surely in a free and supposedly advanced country a supplier and consumer should be allowed to contract as they wish, provided all is with in the law.

AND these jobsworths sit around declaring pompously that the reason for the falling interest in the UK stock markets is insufficient regulation and control. Have they never considered the effect of excessive overheads, lack of flexibility and avarice (stamp duty should be abolished as promised when the central share register was to go electronic under Thatcher).