RE: Fair value10 Nov 2022 16:31
Brent's contributions are always welcome and interesting. I also have been 'working my way through this report', and I'm encouraged by it, while also accepting that on the surface it all seems to be moving very slowly. The BOD at the presentation day did inform us that they were working on the permitting and environmental updates which are crucial to moving forward.
The risk profile ascribed by W H Ireland is extremely positive, and at this stage in the project couldn't realistically be any better in my opinion.
The Grangesberg evaluation is very interesting. The potential share value uplift is a good indicator of the importance this project is to our company. It must of course be understood that to achieve that value will incur cost to AYM to obtain 70% controlling interest. In 2014 AYM acquired 6% of Grangesberg for $145,000. Just applying some very crude and simple extrapolation for example in 2014: 1% = 145,000 / 6 = $24,166; therefore on that basis in 2014 70% would have been 24,166 x 70 = $1,691,666. If 10% per year compounded to 2023 is applied, a figure of $3,988,861 would be needed to acquire 70% of Grangesberg.
I must stress, (as you can tell), I have zero knowledge of how this business ascribes it's values, I'm just doing a simple exercise which might stimulate some debate from those more knowledgeable than me (Southwesterner your input would be welcome), to evaluate the risks and rewards of the Grangesberg project.
GLA