Member Info for Monkf6

Absolutely agree - the comment about 62MW costing £45m was not intended to suggest OPG overpaid - as you say, that's how much it costs. My intention was to highlight how the valuations we're seeing - for both OPG and MYT - are ridiculously low. The $1bn debt MYT has is to fund it through to completion of 1700MW (only 500MW of that is solar - all this year and most probably completed already). I'm sure we'll then see them take a similar approach to OPG in paying off a substantial amount of that debt. Wuffle - if you do have a look at payment terms, please do highlight any differences you notice - thanks. There won't be a tie-up with OPG and MYT, which is a good thing for both companies. MYT have positioned themselves as 100% renewable. The management style, strategy and culture seems to be very different too. Best for them just to have good relations and mutual respect for each other :) Ctw - I agree OPG is a compelling investment case and looks very undervalued and a good investment. OPG share price rising will be good for MYT and vice versa. I hope OPG is taking a lead - MYT will follow. Thanks to you all for putting forward your views. Learning about OPG has improved my understanding of MYT.

Oh and definitely agree about poor IR! Is it bad that I thought OPG were much better than MYT?! There are far more news posts on their website in 2017 than on MYT's. KSK definitely come last though. Having said, I think MYT were a little hamstrung this year by the auditors taking their time on the accounts because of the change to the new Indian accounting standards. The auditors didn't give them a timescale so they couldn't even tell us that the results would be out on June X. I'm informed that the results were ready months ago otherwise.

Great to have you join us holycustard! I was tempted to buy into OPG when researching so I'd own both too but, as one of the people said on the OPG message board, it's vanilla. Personally, I don't think it's a good strategy to "reflect the power mix of India" - that's not an actual quote but captures what OPG management have said. Far better IMO to focus - wind and solar are close enough, for me. It also gives MYT a brand. Debt vs. dividend! I agree: pay off the high interest debt rather than an early dividend. I didn't challenge it as I thought I might get called out for "trolling" - I'm aware I was talking up MYT on a competitors message board ;) We agree with you that it might be better if MYT tapped the brakes on the debt / speed of growth. I think it'll happen after the 700MW have been developed this year. IMO last year was more of a risk because it was all wind, which takes time to get the full benefit. This year, at least 500MW (of the 700MW) is solar so that'll start producing cash straight away. The wind assets will get a full run the following year, which means all those MW of wind built last year will have a full monsoon season this year and the total will take us close to $200m EBITDA.

FYI, I had some replies back on the OPG Power message board (when comparing to MYT). In short: OPG share price has followed a similar pattern down to MYT OPG nearly bought a company called Lanco Lanco were badly managed and it didn't help sentiment towards any of our share prices OPG are clearly undervalued like MYT (although more than 4x MYT value) OPG using cash flow to pay off debt and pay a dividend now OPG much slower growth now compared to MYT OPG invested £45m to build 62MW solar! More than our current market cap with 1300MW+ And IMO it seems coal price and coal transport / network creates a much greater risk than wind/solar on long-term PPAs. Now I don't know too much about coal plants but I do know they use a lot of water and so, for me, I want to avoid these kinds of investments as the preciousness of that resource could be a future risk. In comparison wind is as cheap as coal and becoming cheaper as well as more efficient: the taller towers and longer blades mean that we can now capture 2-4 times the wind that the slightly older turbines could - with the same footprint.

Interesting, Hounddog - I'll have a look at Greencoat over the w/e so I can add to your thoughts. The costs of turbines is much cheaper in India (for EXACTLY the same equipment). However the cost of electricity is about 1/3 of the UK and, like you say, the UK has a subsidy than India does not have / need. I'm sure you're right that interest on debt will probably have the biggest impact (India interest rates are 6.25% and I think the debt is closer to 10%). ReNew Power are not listed on any market - they're backed by Goldman Sachs. The $2bn valuation they were given (for 2000MW) was based on a recent finance deal with a Japanese fund. ReNew very similar to Mytrah.

Wuffle - interesting that you suggest / jest the cheapest way for OPG to expand into solar would be MYT shares as it certainly would be! OPG and MYT are getting into solar at about the same time - 186MW (OPG) vs 500MW (MYT) completed this year - and this just goes to show how cheap MYT is... OPG invested £45m last year to build 62MW of solar. That's more than MYT's market cap is today (£40m) yet MYT has 1000MW of wind with 700MW (solar and wind)! Incredible. Anyhow - it's been good to find OPG and your message board - thanks for the discussion. I'll head back to our message board but will keep an interesting eye on OPG.

I only came across OPG (and KSK) a couple of weeks ago when looking for MYT comparators. The graphs for OPG, KSK, and MYT have all followed a similar pattern so it seems the biggest impact has been India or Indian Power specifically falling out of favour over the past year - possibly due to falling prices / increased competition / fear of lower returns. I don't mean to mention the "L" word (Lanco) but maybe that has something to do with it too. I'm sure we'll all follow a similar pattern up so pleased to see the buys in OPG - I just think MYT will be much better ;)

The strange thing with both OPG and MYT is that their share prices are suppressed. OPG have had nothing but buys today - decent buys too - yet the share price hardly moves. MYT have had a similar problem, albeit with less volume. I've noticed that on the LSE website a lot of the "sells" have actually been "buys" - and almost all of my purchases have shown up as sells on this website. It'll move on a few big buys though! If I wasn't invested in MYT, thinking about long-term profit and cash, I'd happily buy some OPG for today's profit and cash and a more patient growth strategy.

Despite OPG and MYT being very similar it's still very difficult to compare because they're both growing fast; they report at different times of the year; in different currencies; and MYT adopted the Indian accounting changes earlier than needed (I think OPG are waiting until 2018). Wuffle - the reason for MYT appearing to have interest payments greater than operating profit is a $6m exceptional refinancing charge (huge long-term benefit) and the change in Indian accounting, which allows different rates for depreciation and amortisation - resulting in approx. $20m difference on just DA. Underlying PBT was $4.76m (with new Indian accounting standards) or $10.59m (using previous European accounting standards). OPG's PBT should be a healthy +£20m. So OPG definitely wins here! And on that measure I can understand the 4x market cap. over MYT. On new Indian accounting standards, MYT had $362m revenue and $128m EBITDA. On the previous measure it would be $122m revenue and $112m EBITDA. So OPG will get a nice headline when it adopts the new standards! I can only guess at OPG's full year figures. I have very crudely based them on 2x the half year or 30% increase on 2016 based on increased electricity sales in the recent trading update. Please shoot me down for this if you disagree. If I take the higher of the two (to be as fair to OPG as possible) I get much higher revenue for OPG than MYT but lower EBITDA. Current net cash generated from operating activities would also be £80m (if converted from $) for MYT compared with £77m for OPG. Again, please do challenge me on this. OPG would have approx. 30% more cash & cash equivalents than MYT though. This is clearly a very rough estimate. I think my point is that I agree: OPG are undervalued and a bargain at this price - especially with the value today and the dividend. So I'm certainly not trying to put down this share. But I REALLY think MYT is undervalued - especially when it is 1/4 of OPG's market cap. And at the end of 2017/18, MYT will have 1700MW compared with OPG's 940MW. OPG may have a better average tariff though.

Thanks for your replies, Wuffle and Ctw. As I've been looking into OPG more to compare it with MYT, I can certainly see the attractiveness now. I also see a lot of similarities between the two. I think MYT are a little behind OPG in seeing the benefits of the cash flow through (assets built last year need a full monsoon season this year) but they are investing that to race ahead in terms of growth - which brings more debt and more risk. OPG seem to have chosen to deleverage and pursue slower growth. I suppose it depends on the appetite for risk. MYT have always met or exceeded targets so I have every confidence in them reaching 1700MW this year. But I hope they tap the brakes a little after that.

Those are just my recent buys that I've got lucky with (and didn't expect) - I ended up paying 27p on results day. I've bought everything in between since in the 26s and 25s too. And I'm still happy with my buys at 33p at the back end of last year too. I expect that the differences in price will be insignificant in a few years - and probably as soon as the seller has finished. Of course, I could be wrong - it does happen from time to time ;) - and there are plenty of risks (I think we've covered most of them). But, for me, I'm just letting my logic override my feelings. We'll see - I've been very open on here so will either do well or be embarrassed.

Oh - and for the record - I have again bought MYT today and yet the screen on this website shows it as a "sell" instead of a buy. What I've been doing every day is setting a buy with a very low purchase price (just in case I can tempt the seller). Yesterday it was 10000 shares at 24p (showed up as a sell). Today it was 10000 shares at 23.5p (showed up as 2x 5000 sells). All of these were actually buys. I actually think most of the trades we see on this website for MYT have been buys - especially when you see a value amount like £999 or a round number quantity like 5000 shares. You can often see looking at the bid/offer and what the transaction actually was too. I use HSBC and the last time I saw my buys actually show up on this website as buys was on the day the results were announced.

Absolutely! I've written on the chat board for OPG to ask anyone on there why they chose OPG over MYT. No-one has replied yet but my guess is that, as we've discussed before, their numbers look better. OPG also pay a dividend now at 800MW and are only just getting into solar. They won't be able to grow like MYT. And the Indian government just cancelled a couple of coal power stations as renewables are now a better option. It seems OPG got a bounce after being featured in Shares Magazine. Just goes to show that it'll only take a little media coverage.

From my research I think the big seller/s in OPG, MYT and KSK may be different. I can see the positives in OPG - cash flow, profit and paying a dividend. But what about the future? The Indian government just cancelled some coal power stations because renewables (especially solar) have become more attractive. I know OPG are into solar now but IMO if they want to catch-up they're going to have to sacrifice that dividend to reinvest for growth. Will investors be happy with that or will they be happy with a dividend and slower growth? Don't get me wrong, I'd quite like Mytrah to slow down and let the cash flow through to a healthy dividend - so I'm not saying OPG's strategy is necessarily wrong. But... Mytrah are now over 1GW and expect to add another 700MW this year alone (almost the size of OPG last year). Yet Mytrah is currently valued at just 1/4 of the market cap of OPG. Instead of paying a dividend at the moment they are reinvesting into more wind and solar. This isn't me trying to persuade anyone to buy MYT - I'm just putting forward some of why I chose MYT over OPG and interested in why you'd take OPG instead of MYT? Is it the dividend today? Thanks (I haven't mentioned KSK because they don't interest me).

The MYT profile page on the FT website shows recent institution buyers and sellers but I don't trust their data as I think I've identified approx. 1.5m shares by one institution that have been sold (TBC) that the FT website does not show. However it could be that they have been sold over May/June and this is the seller we're trying to identify. The FT website does show Premier and Henderson buying this year shares and we know Premier have bought a lot as they're in the top 5 holders of MYT now (shown on MYT website as of end of April 2017). If I keep going the way I am, I'll be breaking into the top 5 soon!

Glad to see you back saintpeter! You must be right - it's got to be a big seller like Capital - I'll see what I can find out.

Hi all - I don't own any shares in OPG but I do own shares in MYT. I was wondering why you chose OPG over MYT or KSK? I notice that the share prices of all 3 Indian power companies have fallen together since the back end of last year. I wonder if the big seller/s has been the same?

I'm intrigued that it's not just MYT that has suffered since Oct/Nov last year. The share prices of other Indian power companies, OPG Power and KSK Power, have both fallen over the same time period. The various online chat boards for these companies show people equally puzzled about the fall in these share prices. They also seem to be aware of a big seller in the market - and suspect that the selling has finished. So I wonder whether the seller/s of OPG and KSK are the same as MYT (in my mind, probably). Rather than there being any concerns over MYT, it could just be someone wanting out of India / Indian energy companies. I contacted a hedge fund that had a large stake in MYT and they confirmed that they do still own the shares and did not understand why it was as low as it is. OPG and KSK have often had much lower volume than MYT. June has seen OPG bounce with their results. I think we'll see all 3 recover together but IMO MYT is better managed. For the record, I don't hold (and won't buy) shares in OPG or KSK.

I hadn't heard of Fusionex. It seems very rare for a company to do this - with most delistings due to a takeover or insolvency. My first thought (based on the headlines) was what a disaster. But I looked into the CEO, read the proposal on their website and looked into matched bargain services. I'm now even a little tempted to buy some shares just to see what happens post-delisting! The company does appear to be hugely undervalued. Still, as much as I'm curious to see what happens, I won't buy shares because (a) I haven't followed this company; (b) it's fashion / tech that I don't understand; and (c) I'd rather buy more MYT. Like you say, hopefully it would be unlikely and difficult for MYT to delist in the same way. And the damage to personal and company reputation for doing so is a big risk to take (especially after seeing the fall out of another company doing it). But a hypothetical that they did... I would feel confident that my shares bought over the past few weeks/months would be worth considerably more in a couple of years time through a matched bargain service.

Thanks as always, Hounddog. And great job on GKO. Interestingly, even during that time of uncertainty it sounds like GKO market cap would have bottomed out around £80m - and MYT currently sits at £40m with more MW and assets! I saw a report last summer valuing GKO at $1bn based on the finance that they raised (a bit like Renew being valued at $2bn).