Chris Heminway, Exec-Chair at Time To ACT, explains why now is the right time for the Group to IPO. Watch the video here.
CEO says "...so to be clear, we're gonna go from 16 where we are now to 40 in total, and we expect to be able to conclude those contracts in the next 12-18 months. How can he be sure? Smelling over confidence again.
CEO also talked about the INHC market share. I searched online and found that healthcare communications claim to be the market leader, 'The #1 patient engagement platform is contracted to 38 UK trusts and delivers digital appointment letters instantly to patient’s smartphones. Patients can access all appointment information from the palm of their hand, anytime and anywhere!' This company did not get a mention in the CEOs presentation. Can anyone reading this shed some light on the difference between INHC product and this? It sounds like the same thing as their zesty platform to this old dinosaur.
A little more online searching found that the healthcare communications promote east lancashire hospitals, who use Oracle Cerner, and United Lincolnshire hospitals, who use System C.
The partnership agreements that INHC have signed are non exclusive so presumably a hospital can choose any of the other suppliers, and have done so. It seems the CEO is counting his chickens before they've hatched.
System C gives them a link into 28 acute hospitals in the UK. The Oracle Cerner partnership covers 24 acute hospitals in the UK and 1 (that I could find) acute hospitals in Ireland.
I wonder if Oracle have signed similar partnership agreements elsewhere in the world. Website says they have over 2000 hospitals using the Cerner system and over 1000 are outside the US.
Oracle Cerner have a similar agreement with WELL Health / Artera so forget US expansion. Artera are rumoured to be heading for an IPO and so it quite possible that INHC would become a future takeover target.
I am not why the CEO said he still expects ARR of nearly £4m for the zesty platform by the end of FY23. The RNS said many of these expected contracts would now complete in FY24. It would be a remarkable achievement to go from over £1m at H1. Will this be an overconfident prediction too?
Cash position up to £9m from £7.5m at FY22 and expect to be £6m at FY23 instead of £10m in the guidance. That was over confident. Can we presuppose they are now burning £1.5m of cash annually?
CEO predicts to be cash positive by the end of FY24. Old CFO said the same for FY23 back in 2021. That was over confident. CFO leaving with one month notice after only a year into the job. CEO did not say much about him in the update. One could read all sorts into that.
What do people think about the results? There was already an expectation of significant revenue increase with the acquisitions. It didn't take much selling (a couple of trades) to hammer the share price! Someone can correct me but I read the results as though it's really a £2m cash loss, which is better than last year. With £7m+ cash on the balance sheet, they can go for another 4 years if the cash burn stays the same. Do any of you expect it to have gone up in the last 6 months? Reading between the lines, I see them selling the low revenue software they have for clinical use to focus on the software for patient use. That'd bring in more cash. I don't know the products well enough to judge.
No need to execute a trade - it'll all go through automatically, Luke. You'll log in to your account in a few weeks and the cash will be there instead of the shares. It hasn't happened to me very often: the first time was WaterLogic. Surprisingly, the MYT letter didn't give a date when responses were needed by or a date for when it will happen!? Just soon, I guess, and as Hounddog says, before the end of year results are required to be released.
Yep - and we'd probably do the same in this situation. Bittersweet for what MYT is really worth. 50% on a 3 month average seems reasonable - just very cheap. Some updates about progress through the year would have helped the share price. I held MYT for 5 years (fortunately averaged down). I hope MYT continue to do well and will keep an eye out for the no-doubt excellent full year results.
An article in IC compared the company's bi-annual promises of a brighter future to consistently "rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic". Although I'm broadly in favour of Glaxo's recent reinvention and high-level strategy, the analogy stuck with me. I had an amateur review of the annual reports and finances from when the efficiency programme began nearly 10 years ago. It's left me questioning whether the endless cost-cutting programme has / will ever make a difference to the bottom line - or at least a difference worthy of the cost of the cost-cutting (billions of "one-off" items by this point). And despite my support of the strategy, I have the same concern about the Novartis asset swap - especially there doesn't seem to be a lot of "brand" in Novartis' old brands - although the sales numbers must have appealed to Glaxo management. I know free cash flow / dividend cover is a constant talking point but we assume management's high-level strategy pays off and the dividend cover returns - a brighter future is coming! Management seem confident but how many times (and for how long) have management seemed confident!? If this was my business I'd be genuinely concerned that, after all these years of "efficiency" and "change" to simplify and strengthen, I'm left with eps that hasn't improved in a decade, less cash, much more debt, poor working capital management (IMO, despite what management say), a year-on-year growing pension deficit, and a dubious increase in "assets" to conveniently offset most of this (IMO, the value added to the balance sheet seems too good to be true). And despite all that... I still own Glaxo shares for the promise of a brighter future! ;) Any thoughts?
This is better than an IPO for-show, in my opinion. Interesting - as always - that selling part of the company will raise $500m while we have a current market cap of �50m. Maybe the deal will be structured in a similar way to the GE deal a couple of years ago? Or, for the first time, it could be dilutive? Either way, a re-reating is long overdue. It shouldn't be long until the end of year results are out now. As an aside: I'm surprised MYT haven't (yet) made an opportunistic approach to buy General Electric's 5% share of Tungabhadra as GE are "divesting" all sorts of assets at the moment to raise cash. Unless I'm wrong, that was $23m for 5% of just one wind project (200 MW). I know we've been there before with valuation so I won't use that as a reliable guide to estimate the company's present value!
Looks like it's 1600 MW operational right now with 400 MW completing over next 4 months. MYT will sell part of the company to raise $500m for 3000 MW and beyond: http://www.livemint.com/Industry/2jeeU8uhPTbqwLfPiWB3DN/Mytrah-to-raise-500-million-through-equity-stake-sale.html Thoughts?
My thoughts exactly. They said it'd be March, which seemed overly optimistic to me. It could be that Vikram was caught off guard by the interviewer and just called what's in development (he does seem to hesitate). But the question is asking what the current installed capacity is now. Here's the link: https://www.bloombergquint.com/in-the-news/2018/02/26/2019-to-be-a-dull-year-for-wind-energy-says-mytrah-energy If the link's been removed / doesn't work, you can find it as the most recent post (yesterday) on their Twitter feed. Outstanding achievement if they've achieved the milestone already. You'd think they'd issue a press release!?
Vikram on video today confirming MYT now at 2GW wind and solar and will add another 1GW in the year.
Completely agree, Hounddog. Overall, I'm just pleased no other skeletons were found, which I almost expected. This is assuming the lawyers and auditors did their job properly, of course ;)
Hi Eddie - yes, this is what I'm thinking - we probably won't ever see the 15x value but I'd think they'd offer something like 50-100p to voluntarily delist rather than just steal the company away. This could be coming and someone in the know is hoovering up all the sells we're seeing recently (as the share price isn't falling much, considering). All speculation and I accept there's a big risk of being shafted though. Maybe worth a look at Greenko who were forced to delist as they got tangled up in convertible loans - and still offered shareholders a 98p per share settlement that, I think (from memory) was 100% higher than market close (after a big fall) and valued the company at approx. �160m - and it was smaller than MYT at the time. I could be wrong. Does anyone have any good / bad experience of owning shares in a company that's delisted before?
I wonder whether someone's mopping up shares as there's mostly selling but the share price has generally held. It's very different from earlier in the year when it didn't take much selling for the price to drop.
Here's my current thinking... the value of the shares not in public hands is approx. �10m right now - less than �6m if you take away the two biggest institutions. Now again, I may be being naive here, but I think it's far more likely that management would want shareholders who own the �10m or �6m worth of shares do OK from any delisting / IPO scenario - even if they never get to benefit from a $1-2bn valuation (it's be great if we do though). It would make no sense to me if, for the sake of a few million, people who are about to make hundreds of millions would risk both their personal reputations and MYT's reputation, which could see it list at a lower valuation than what it would have cost to see shareholders right in the first place.
Oh and another nugget to suggest the press speculation about delisting isn't due to the BOD reacting negatively to the corporate governance scrutiny... they spent best part of $250k on auditors last year and have often highlighted every year how important this is to them. It's funny though how with very little communication, it doesn't take much to start seeing things very differently. I still can't decide if I'm being wet behind the ears and falling victim to confirmation bias OR if I'm actually being measured and balanced. I just can't see Ravi trading in his reputation for a few more million when he stands to make a fortune in any scenario. Maybe I need a towel.
Eddie - Esrano might not be controlled by Kailas. Hounddog knew a little about this (see an earlier post a few months ago). It was the investment vehicle for Angad Paul who committed suicide last year in London when the family steel business collapsed. We're not sure what relationship (if any) there is between the families or if there was a fall out years before when the company changed its name to Mytrah and Angad left the Board. If anyone knows more, please do share. After your post, I went to MYT website to have a look too and we finally now know who the big seller has been over the past several months: Henderson Global Investors. They owned approx. 20% of the publicly traded shares but appear to have sold all 8.5m between May and Sep. I'm not sure what impact the share options granted could / would have in any desire to delist. It appears Ravi transferred 11.5m options to his Trust last year. It also looks like there were 300,000 employee (not directors) share options granted in the Indian company. This is all new territory for me and my only experience is in small Ltd companies. There's one class of ordinary share, each holding one vote so wouldn't Ravi stand to lose the most if the holding company's shares became worthless? Go easy.
I agree ZENGAS - I'd like to see MYT issue a statement. They can stay quiet and say we'll update the market when decisions are made but I feel their hand is forced here. Just a thought that came to me today... a possible future IPO of the Indian company is nothing new - maybe 9-12 months old now - and the potential to delist to do this is also not a new possibility either. So why now? It seems a little too coincidental, to me, that this story comes out now two weeks after the "loan" RNS casts a shadow over the integrity of Ravi / management. If it's not coincidental, then it could be as Skid says: management don't like the scrutiny so want to leave AIM. Or could it be an outside force with an interest in the share price suffering (like it has over the past year). I don't know. I can see both sides. Like we've said before the education and experience of key people is good. Ravi's exited businesses before without spilling investor blood. They've had an excellent track record with MYT over the past 5 years. They've not diluted shareholders when raising money (although maybe that would have been a good thing in hindsight). If there was bad intent here, why would investors trust them with an IPO next time - the internet is already full of these delisting rumours - and they'd probably suffer in valuation because of it. I'm just not seeing it. But then I accept I'm probably being blind. I just have a feeling the press speculation on delisting would never have come out if the unauthorised loan RNS had not preceded it.
I'll add my thoughts on the likely IPO and possible delisting... we discussed a few months ago as MYT have been quite open about "exploring the option" of an IPO in India. It's always been said that, if they went ahead, the Indian company would be listed in India, which is 100% owned by the already-listed UK company. There seems to be an appetite for raising money this way as others (ACME, ReNew, IREDA) are already ahead of MYT here. The problem - and an understandable one - is who's going to buy shares valuing the Indian company at, for the sake of argument, $300m-$1bn, when you could buy shares in the UK company who now that business at just �40m. I don't imagine MYT on AIM will be a ten-bagger overnight either. I wouldn't want MYT to delist for the same fears shared by everyone else - no market and annual dilution. Although if it is to delist for the purpose of listing again in India soon after at a re-rated valuation, could it be a good thing for us? Maybe it means we won't realise the value once thought but we know it's massively undervalued at present and so could still sell at a very decent profit. Any thoughts? Is delisting all bad? I've followed FusionEx a little since their very controversial delisting in the summer. I think you mentioned this one, Hounddog, when you raised a concern of MYT doing the same. From what I've seen so far there haven't been many shares bought / sold yet but those that have have been above the final share price. A lot of people holding shares at delisting said they would hold for future performance / a future IPO. And I haven't commented on the "loan" yet so... This situation's a real mess - whether Ravi stays or goes because of it. I'm trying not to prejudge because when I've seen him speak or read what he's written over the past few years, it's always given me an impression of a honourable man, with a decent track record and a sense of purpose and pride in what MYT was doing. We all make mistakes and can all succumb to greed (maybe that's a little too forgiving) but I just can't see how taking money out of the business as a "loan" at the expense of shareholders can be done with an innocent mind. Still, you never know. It'll say a lot with how much (or little) Ravi decides to explain to shareholders about this situation. I'd like to think he'd talk us through his thinking at the time, give details or the transaction, and apologise for the damage done (reputation, financial, cultural). That would show character and fit with my up-to-now positive impression of him. However if it's a generic statement from the company only, that says a lot too. It's that old adage about reputation.