Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
Or they can let those holding shares to wallow - not make a further offer and eventually delist the company. Good luck with your bet. The best play both before the first deadline and after was to sell into the market. With oil prices now low you could have used the IAE funds to buy better companies at a much lower cost.
If Delek decides to force out the remaining 5.8% of shares ((around 25Million) then they have to offer the $1.95 that was the original offer. However, given that they have 94.2% of the company, they don't have to force out anyone now. One could wait to see if another $1.95 offer is made to the remaining shares with the possibility that it doesn't happen or sell now with a 20% discount on the original offer. I got out in February on the first morning that the offer was made. My thinking was that with the oil market so weak and the NS out of favour that $1.95 CND would be as good as it would get AND IF the bid failed then the share price would plummet. If I were sitting with shares now then I would get out now and learn the lesson that a bird in the hand is worth more than two in the bush. Good luck on your decision. And so long to all. Its been a slice.
Investors who have held on waiting for Delek to increase their bid have held dead money for almost three months. In that time the price of oil has risen and fallen three times with each time providing an opportunity to generate profits. Holding out for Delek to increase the bid was never the correct play given all the other investments out there. If you have played the ebbs and flows of the price of oil you would have generated the equivalent of 200p on your initial IAE investment. This was a case of falling in love with a stock rather than recognizing that cash could be allocated elsewhere to generate more profit at less risk. For those who are thinking of not tendering their share, you may just end up with your wish of Delek NOT getting the 90%. If that happens, don't expect Delek to play nice. It really is time to let it go and move on. Just saying.
Sounds like they are going to get the votes. Les makes reference to Cavendish and Artimus as being in the minority and that IAE management will be having another talk with them now that the circular is in shareholders hands. Below is a link to the interview http://www.bnn.ca/video/ithaca-s-deep-water-output-up-as-management-supports-buyout-offer~1084919
If you hold and the bid is accepted you will get $1.95 CND. If you hold and the offer is rejected then the share price will plummet as it did back in 2012. If you sell now and the bid is accepted then you will have lost nothing. However, if you sell now and the bid is rejected you will be able to buy back into the company at a considerable discount. It is clearly foolish to be holding this stock at this point.
The value of this company is now crystal clear. It is somewhere around 120p which was the value offered by Delek. The sooner you get your heads around this the sooner you will be able to move on to other more lucrative investments. There will not be another bid.
Enjoy your profits and good luck. Monkey_Spank out.
My understanding is that IF Delek does not get 50% of the non-Delek shares then THEY can walk away from the deal - not the other way around. In other words, if Delek only gets 38.75% of the remaining 80% non-Delek shares they can remain as the controlling shareholder with an overall stake of 51% of all the shares (including the 20% they currently own). If my understanding is correct, which I'm sure it is, then in the scenario where Delek gets 51% control of the company, those investors who do not tender their shares can remain in the company and it will continue to trade on the UK and NA markets. However, if that were to happen I believe that Delek, over time, will force the remaining shareholders to sell, but at a bid much lower than $1.95CND. They could do this in a number of ways and I will leave those possibilities to your imagination. Point is, this is the most that we will get from Delek and those waiting for more will be sadly dissappointed. And for those who don't wish to hear this well, reality can be a pain, no doubt. But that's the way this will play out. Anyway, you heard it here first and if you choose to ignore then you will get what you deserve. Good luck to all in whatever decision you make.
Delek will not increase the bid because they have no need to do this. As pointed out on the CND board, all Delek has to get is another 31% of the total shares or 38.75% of the remaining 80% of the non- Delek shares to get complete control of the company. Once they have 51% of the company, they will squeeze any remaining shareholders out with further lower bids. You will never see $ 1.95 again. Hold on if you like but Delek has absolutely no reason to increase the bid. I believe that they already had commitments from enough large funds to give them the 51% ownership before they even announced the offer. This is a done deal. Good luck in any future investments and may you all find safe harbour.
Trust me, they already have the votes in the bag to get this done. $1.95 CND it is. This silliness about management getting some kind of sweat deal by continuing on is absolutely meaningless and arises from people not knowing their arse from a hole in the ground. Delek already owns 20% of the company, that's why they are buying the other 80%. Is it lower than we might have liked, well yes it is, but this is now done and for me it couldn't have come soon enough. So much for the 300 - 500p eh Dougie. Jesus, we barely got half of that. HA!! NIce call.
SomeKind, I think your post points to the greatest weakness in IAE and that is the lack of reserves. I believe IAE is still under 60M barrels correct. If this were in the 200M+ range then we would no doubt see a much higher sp and could be quite sure of a takeout offer. Austen is still unknown to a large extent and that's not to knock it. It simply is what it is. Until IAE can capture significantly greater reserves, the sp will languish in my opinion and suggestions that we might see 200 - 500p and just nonsense.
We really don't know, and never will, what the true Saudi motivation for agreeing to production cuts was or is. But this new read on the Saudis' motivations for agreeing to the deal has the benefit of explaining why Al-Falih is looking for a six-month time line and why the kingdom has been prepared to make such a deep cut in its production. Its surplus will have disappeared by that time, at which point it can start to boost production again in order to get exports back to the level it wants to maintain. Such a move could easily be the catalyst for the whole deal to fall apart by June. And there's no way the global backlog of inventory will be dealt with at that time. This seems a situation designed to antagonize the rest of the group and create a raft of bad feeling. If maintaining exports is more important to Saudi Arabia than balancing the market, then so is a willingness to back out on a hard-won deal that took the kingdom and its partners a lot of political capital to achieve.
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-01-22/why-saudi-arabia-may-walk-away-from-opec-deal-by-june Jan 22, 2017 3:00 AM EST OPEC's big drama may well be just a one-act light opera. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid Al-Falih says it may not be necessary to extend the deal reached by the group and some non-member nations to cut oil supply by around 1.8 million barrels a day beyond its initial six months, and that doing so could create a shortage. That seems a very quick and painless solution to an oversupply problem that has bedeviled the oil market for the past two years, brought several producers to the brink of collapse and tipped others over it. It took a lot for the Saudis to agree to this deal in November, but the rationale seemed at least to make sense. Brimming supply had created financial difficulties for the kingdom, and also complicated the forthcoming IPO of a small part of Saudi Aramco. Saudi Crude Exports Crude oil exports hit a 13-year high in November, as OPEC met to agree output cuts Sources: JODI, Bloomberg The latest numbers from the Joint Organisations Data Initiative offer a different, and compelling, narrative. It turns out that, as the deal was being thrashed out, Saudi Arabia was enjoying a 35-year high in total oil exports. One big factor was a huge drop in the amount of oil the country needs to burn to generate electricity. The punishing Saudi summers boost demand for electricity -- mostly to run air-conditioners -- to a level that previously required vast amounts of oil-fired generating capacity to be brought into use. The direct burning of crude oil in power stations would roughly double to about 900,000 barrels a day at the height of the season. Burning Crude Saudi oil usage has dropped as natural gas replaces around a third of what it uses for power generation Source: JODI, Bloomberg But that changed last year. The start-up of the Wasit gas plant allowed the kingdom to slash the use of crude in power generation by as much as a third -- freeing that oil up for export. In addition, the kingdom cut fuel subsidies, pushing down oil consumption by 2 percent year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2016. That's the first dip since at least 2003, when JODI records begin. This left Saudi Arabia with an embarrassment of riches as the OPEC negotiations were underway last year. Unless it cut output, it would start flooding the market during the first half of 2017. The stars were aligned for it to solve the problem by persuading others to share the burden in a way that has not been seen since the financial crisis of 2008, while at the same time restoring its credentials as a team player within OPEC.
We can all fantasize about being taken out by a Total or BP or even better a Shell, but that kind of takeover is not going to be happening to IAE for the simple reason that the fields that they have are simply not large enough. If you read the article you will clearly see that the M & A that are shown as examples are all companies and fields that are many times larger than what IAE has under its control. Now this is not to say IAE will not be acquired sometime soon, but it it won't be from any of the kinds of companies that are referred to in that article. But hey, at least the industry in general seems to be moving in the right direction. Here's hoping something happens sooner rather than later because Trump is about to take office and lord knows where the markets are going to end up by the end of this year. "Much uncertainty, Sad!!" (in my best Trump voice).
I suggest you read the information that management has made available and then calculate the in crease from 9.6K to 20K. Once Stella is fully functioning production will double NOT triple. Production is not capacity. And if you wish to confuse production with capacity then at circa 38,000 boepd then it will quadruple. You aren't calculating your fantasy properly. Ha!! Come on BB let's get the math right. You should be stating producto on is doubling then quadrupling. And why stop there? Who knows maybe somewhere down the line they add capacity 10 fold. So double then 10 fold. I mean if we are dreaming let's dream BIG!!! LOL!! Bwhatever, once production gets to 20,000 we are on our way.
I suggest you read the information that management has made available and then calculate the in crease from 9.6K to 20K. Once Stella is fully functioning production will double NOT triple. Production is not capacity. And if you wish to confuse production with capacity then at circa 38,000 boepd then it will quadruple. You aren't calculating your fantasy properly. Ha!! Come on BB let's get the math right. You should be stating producto on is doubling then quadrupling. And why stop there? Who knows maybe somewhere down the line they add capacity 10 fold. So double then 10 fold. I mean if we are dreaming let's dream BIG!!! LOL!! Bwhatever, once production gets to 20,000 we are on our way.
IAE has been very clear that production will be closer to 20K per day. This idea t production will triple is fantasy and will not be found in any news. It's nonsense and based on wild speculation. There is zero evidence that production will triple.
Cheers monkey, i'll have a look -------------------------------------------------- Mostyn, I should have mentioned that the info on SEDI is a tad scrambled, BUT all the information is there, but you have to work for it a bit (sometimes a lot). Good Luck.
All options by individual can be seen on SEDI. Simply go to SEDI and type in the Director or Managers name and you can see how many options they hold, when they were granted, when they are completed and the price per share per option.