Member Info for Monkey70

"I personally reckon we're getting some kind of big announcement tomorrow after the markets close at lunchtime, a nice Christmas present from Santa Christian, with a webinar following next week. Everyone could then spend 4-5 days digesting it while bathing in Champagne all weekend."

If Carlsberg did RNS releases (wink).

I am of the opinion that if there was going to be no news this year, we would have been told before now. Also, I continue to hold and quietly accumulate as I have been doing since the war started.

By the way, when WK is running at a full 64k/oz (it is around half that at present) it would pay us a circa 2.8p annual dividend at current metal prices and MT when running at a full 1m/oz capacity would, quite simply, be extremely profitable.

Ignore the negative noise (a basher never bashes a bad share, remember) and just wait for the RNS. A Merry Christmas to all genuine LTH's.

It is very easy to base an offer for the company as multiples of our depressed (and, IMO, manipulated) SP.

I prefer to use NPV. It is not unreasonable to say we are worth at least $2bn if one of the pits at NPV is worth $1.2-1.7bn as per the WA report. WK alone is worth $350m based on the WK Update RNS, IMO.

The combined MT/NKT DFS (which will add extra value from the already boosted MT DFS and eliminate single asset risk) will give the NPV a big boost too.

Then we have the small matter of value from the Trav licence and Nyud entitlement.

From all of that I would put NPV at $3bn minimum.

This would translate to £2.26bn hence a bid of 76.5p based on 2.95bn shares.

However, let us be conservative and give a discount of a third off fair value.

51p is the bare minimum the BOD will accept for our assets, IMO. We have at least one Tier 1 assets and the WK Flanks have yet to be explored.

Good luck to all genuine investors, as always :)

Well done to those who kept the faith (and ignored the naysayers).

This is the beginning of the end-game. Enjoy the ride.

Happy with the RNS and look forward to the webinar summary (I'll be at the dentist, unfortunately).

Big positives for me are no further dilution when dual listing on the Astana International Exchange - the SP will move up quickly, IMO, on buying as we have a small free float. The other is the cash pot till H2 2026. Wonder if that includes the VAT money owed to us and the monies from the Russian court case win.

A good day to all genuine holders.

They do it for a reason. To take attention away from this share. Disruption.

I green box them which helps.

@ Montmuzard - A few months ago I could not see the BOD accepting less than $1bn (£800m) for all our assets especially considering NPV is $3.5-4bn or so (maybe a bit more with the MT DFS). This equates to around 26.5p.

@Montmuzard - Fantastic, well done, mate. Had roughly 500k myself when the Russo Ukrainian War began. Have almost septupled my holding so pretty happy with that.

Excellent post, Montmuzard.

I concur with all that you said especially about the time has long passed for a fire-sale valuation. The BOD kept their nerve and will now profit handsomely from their steadfast belief in our assets.

It will be an interesting next few months, IMO. Maybe even less than that.

The SP exceeded my average yesterday so I have stopped accumulating when I could so now it is feet up and just wait for the long overdue finale.

A good day to all genuine investors.

All the best for 2025 to all genuine investors.

I have a feeling the Russo-Ukraine conflict will end next year. Plus, I also believe we will get our long-awaited asset sale/company sale/MBO.

Off to go for a beer early doors.

Bliadhna Mhath Ùr!

Was valued at $1bn in December 2022. Implies this deal carried a 68% discount to fair value.

If our NPV is, say, a conservative $2.5bn and using the same metrics, we would be $800m (19.1p) assuming 10% dilution from AIX secondary listing.

Carlsberg has sold via a MBO after being released from temporary State ownership. $322m deal according to the FT.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/12/03/danish-brewer-carlsberg-sells-russian-business-a87213

No news to chat about. Yet.

I continue to accumulate and hold in the background.

GLA.

Bought a few more and added to the ISA earlier.

Average down to just under 4.5p. Not concerned about the suspension. Fundamentals remain unchanged and asset sale news can drop any time (yes, even during suspension).

Remain confident of a positive outcome. If I didn't, I would sell up and stay off this BB :)

Have a good weekend, genuine LTH's.

Great post, LB.

Thanks for sharing your technical artistry. It is nice to have some positivity on the BB after a long while.

A good day for all genuine LTH's. I particularly liked the 'measured' ascent today with moments of consolidation.

Not been on today up till now and started from page 16. Had to green box a few chatterbox traders and neg-heads before I got to page 1 :)

Have a good evening all and look forward to tomorrow.

JTMacs got me in here via the AML BB too.

Top guy - rest in peace.

Yes, Ian - I have an extra 'i' :)

Take care and catch you soon.

Good to see you, Admiral.

Have a great weekend!

Tripled my holding to 2.2m since the war started. Averaged down to 4.6p.

Quietly confident we will get something in the range of 15-35p - more if Artem works his magic and/or the DFS gets a significant boost.

Another good day but there is a way to go before we even see fair value (haircuts or no haircuts). Have a great weekend all genuine LTH's. Cheers.

I think it will be a consortium of NN, Citic and SinoSteel, Jarvs.

Be interesting to see where the Japanese come into it.

I do and remain confident of that.

15-35p is my conservative estimate allowing for a worst case scenario (geo-politics/buyers market/lower prices of metals) - the last one is a moot point as a buyer would look at the medium term 5-10 years and, having said that, the same could apply to the former but it would be a moot point when the buyer is from Russia/HK/BRICS.

DS is a big shareholder. and wants a good ROI. He and Artem are well-connected in Russia and I have faith in them to pull off a sale for us. I also expect the State to take into account we are a 'good company from an unfriendly country' but the most important thing I feel here is our relationship (or rather former relationship) with Rosgeo. Their former senior employee is running WK now and is Country Company Manager (or something of that ilk) plus all sale-related stuff goes through him. This was mentioned in a previous RNS - 2022, I believe.

Japan office and directors are here for EUA2. In what capacity, I do not know. Be interesting to find out once we appoint a new CEO post-asset sale :)

These are just my thoughts and opinions, of course.