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So you ventured out of your fall-out shelter for a look-see, eh?

I agree, mate.

called your son HBOS so you are obviously crackers.

Dow Jones is at 9470 and this has come down with it.

Regarding DJ, the MA is 9430, it closed on Friday at 9440 but the current market assumes that it will re-open above 9500! I am foreseeing a very broad correction in the next hour as Europe (I include FTSE) is pulled into line - a reality check, if you will.

also from that article "If Kraft proposes paying too high a price to catch up, shareholders may revolt." Who wants to follow in Fred Goodwin's shoes. ABN Amro is another, much more recent and very relevant, example of how historical valuations are bad guides for now or the future.

"Cadbury’s biggest shareholder, Legal & General Investment Management, joined with management in rejecting Kraft, saying it noted “the valuations of other recent food transactions.”" http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=aP4b_.BTAJyk It's funny, people are talking about Mars’ $22.6 billion bid for Wrigley at 19.5 x EBITDA and even the 1988 Rowntree deal. These 'benchmarks' may serve as some kind of a guide but who is going to refuse an offer on their house, citing what the neighbours got 2 years ago (when the market was booming)?! I remember when Lastminute.com was floated and on day 1 you had to pay £5 a share. The value wasn't there and the market soon corrected (LMI was eventually snapped up by the competition for a few pennies per share). Saying that Cadbury is worth £9 just days after it was worth 570p is insane. The madness of crowds...

don't talk back

If you believe that, you should have bought it at 570p last week. Of course, if it's not your belief, and you are simply impressionable, I would suggest that getting in after the surge is rather risky.

Well, I shall settle for a retrace of just one of the two pounds it leapt 'overnight' (okay, weekend)! I would think that some of the slow-motion Cadbury's holders will get a call from their brokers and they'll lend some selling pressure to this. It would certainly be worth selling half of what you've got to lock in this good profit.

I see that 54m shares have traded today. With 1366m shares in issue that is only, well you do the maths. I would guess that a lot of these are in the hands of some conservative investors who may take a day or two to action a sell after seeing the news on TV tonight or reading tomorrow's newspaper.

Yes, it is interesting. I am reading all the news about Cadbury with interest today and some of it smells like disinformation. If Panmure Gordon and all of these other eminent analysts (sarcastic tone) REALLY value Cadbury at £10 per share, we can only wonder how many shares they each own as they have been readily available for less than £5.50. CBRY is today at an all-time high and yet these clowns reckon there is 25% more to go!

Do you ever go here - http://www.lse.co.uk/general-chat-topics.asp?CatCode=li2viz - to discuss the indices? Just click on the last post to contribute your thoughts.

You are quite correct when you say that the level of FTSE (and Dax) is unsustainable. I am pretty sure that when America gets back online it will spoil the party, they may go along with the vibe for a few hours but will wreck it when they realise that nothing has changed to warrant almost 2% up in a day.

That is about the size of it and, unless your SL is guaranteed, you are still exposed to significant jumps or overnight news. Many will disagree but the stop loss is no friend of mine, they only ever caught me out because as soon as my trade was automatically unwound, the price came back towards my target. If you want, you could set the SL at 850p in this case as that may mean that your broker will require less margin than with no SL. You then follow it fairly closely and close the short manually if things go against you. Of course, it is more tempting to take a profit than a loss. I can tolerate big red numbers on my screen but when they turn significantly positive, I am itching to close. ATB, Monaco

at £8 was nearly £11bn. Where does the market think that Kraft is going to get that from? It follows that if people were paying £8 a share, they thought it would appreciate from there. Sky's the limit, eh? Even if Kraft offer of 740p is accepted, it is half shares and half cash and will take AT LEAST a month to come through. Hence, I reckon this will go back to £7 or less in the next couple of days.

A good guy I met on here (and subsequently in real life) persuaded me that not doing shorting is like fighting with one hand behind your back or only having a hammer in your toolkit. A hammer's great but sometimes you need a screwdriver.

1366.4 m shs x £7.80 gives a market cap of almost £10,658m. Kraft approach was £10,200m so I consider this overbought. A bird in the hand etc would suggest that one should sell when or before the mkt cap reached the discussed £10.2bn... so my target is under 740p if the offer is really on the table or under £7 if it's not much more than hot air.

If I was in, and I meant to be, I would take this morning's price for the reasons you mention. In fact, I am tempted to short CBRY like I shorted DGO a few weeks ago. They were approcahed for a takeover but the investor interest faded a couple of days later.

higher birthrates in the UK and the strength of the Euro to combine to have a positive effect on MTC sales and this SP.