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We have current production of 140bopd. We lose 30bopd from Dino and T45. Bits let's be pessimistic and take off 40 good.

So 1000 bopd less 100 means we are looking for 900.

So each of the wells needs to do average of 300bopd.

That does nor sound too ambitious to me if they do zone 9 or turn up the choke or have 4 wells averaging only 225
bopd.

And that is based on information in RNS.

Rant away, rant away it makes no difference except put in the shop window doubt to anyone else who sees the podcast and then reads your posts.

One factor not talked about here that I think is relevant given the trading that does happen is the changes to margin on spread bets. The drop here will have put alot of pressure on leveraged positions and with the new rules in place it will probably cause closing positions quckly......

Tarbani only had 10 wells that flowed oil. The plan is to fan out so there is also a well spacing consideration so the wells just might not be in the right location whether the bore is usable or not. If they are going eldari b then you would think the old soviet wells as opposed to old Frontera wells are simply not the answer. Funders might also prefer clean wells to reduce risk a bit.

Times change. If we have a team that can drill quickly and competently a new well which in future could be used to go right down into lower formations then that is the way to go. The old wells will always limit what you can do.

Reusing unreliable soviet wells might be ok to get at zone 9 but lower than that the current campaign has demonstrated the advantage of modern oil drills and ud2 has definitively proved that below 2000m the wells can't take the pressures needed to frac. Zaza confirmed in that call what I suspected the frac went back up the weak point not out into the geology.

Its a good sign that the company can consider going from make do and mend to drill new.

Chris listen again.

On the gas there are three elements to consider

1. Mtsare gas. We currently produce from the higher intervals. But the CPR shows the larger gas volumes lower down. Ud2 has validated the gas presence but the old well is not a platform that can be used to commercials. They have not wasted money on it. The next visit to the play does so with all the information learnt to date. It does not change the CPR. They will go back in 2019 and it remains entirely possible that could be with a partner.

2. We have gained this week a previously unannounced gas play in the eldari b which is now being actively investigated for how to monetise.

3. We still have the deep gareji gas in taribani to visit in 2019/20. That would be after you have addressed the gas in the eldari b in same area.

So gas has changed emphasis and is by no means off the table from a prospective jv. Indeed you could argue a JV in taribani has become more plausible and a JV the more likely road to progress in mtsare if capital is deployed on taribani.

I take that to mean T39 needs more time. T45 and Dino I can't see any reason not to release when ready. If they are ok and stable there is no advantage to holding them unpublished that I can see. If they are not stable then fair enough it would need more time to demonstrate the decline. If they go the way they seem to be you would end up with 2 wells testing eldari a and 2 eldari b in 2018.

They need to sort out processing for gas at taribani before they do more deep wells and that includes Niko if they intend to monetise. He intimated that they were now looking at the processing infrastructure for taribani. So I think they will leave T45 and Dino alone to prove zone 14 and 15 before possibly revisiting to mingle zone 9 and maybe 13. That serves the purpose of metering each zone accurately to get the profile.

One thing that caught my ear was that he confirmed better permeability and porosity in zone 19 which is what we suspected given no need to stimulate or frac.

He does not say that at all.

On Dino and T45 he simply declined to say anything as he has not issued RNS. Where has 3 to 4 weeks come from? As I said yesterday I think you could get 2 sets of results. Eldari a for T45 and Dino and at a later date eldari b for T39.
Eldari b is now arguably more important if it forms the basis of the commercial development sequence it needs to be demonstrated to fulfill finance and reserve lending requirements. That is why Niko is funded as a one off with the hedge fund.

When talking about operations he talked about days and weeks. So I'm not seeing 3 to 4 weeks here. And tend to agree with coggy the operational cost cover and paying ya cash indicates the flows sent that bad as I reckon in the past they need 500 bopd to do that.....

A very good well structured podcast.

The current campaign is doing a number of important things.
1. It has proved the technical solution to drill and complete from zones 9 to 19.
2. They are getting measured results from each zone.

The field is commercial and they are seeking the next round of funding for 2019 using a mixture of convertible debt (probably EBRD I think as that would help resolve some of the friction with the government but would like to know more on terms if we end up down that root) and RBL borrowing once the campaign plugs numbers into a revised upwards CPR. With good economics it's easier to fund. They are putting together a business plan to present to funders for 2019. Confidence growing and getting ready for the larger programme. That is why they need the detailed work done which does take time to borrow the $25m I suspect they are looking for. The removal of the debt from the balance sheet since 2017 is also key precursor to that.

Note he said days and months on T39, T45, Dino. Flows stabilised gas increasing at T39. So the 250bopd is a stable flow on limited choke.

Gas it looks like taribani associated gas is the immediate focus. He said they were looking at that now. Ud2 they will go back there in 2019 having evaluated results to decide between sidetrack or new twin. Mtsare gas would be before taribani deep gas which makes sense to me.

Happy with that.

Boulevard what is he supposed to do?

The news from taribani has been consistently good for the whole campaign. The finances continue to improve with YA being managed out if the way. Yet people focus solely on ud2 flow rates and conveniently forget it has further validated that there is deep gas in mtsare to be exploited.

On a balanced scorecard card basis he has done a good job over the past year.

People complain that the communications have gone quiet. So you get a couple of podcasts. The RNS for the taribani campaign will come.

It's probably boring and mundane to many understanding the long term economics of the campaign that is about to get going but if the flow rates are being sustained then this is a very good business that can and I believe will be grown sustainably from here.

If he had said the long standing 1000 bopd target was unlikely to be met rather than setting us up for failure you would have seen huge speculation that tarbani does not flow!

Prod I think a deal or deals will come. But waiting for the deal and as many have done this year I feel betting on the timing of one is a different thing all together. The assets and results of the work programs will do the talking and when one comes along it needs to happen when we are financially stable. There will be a right time and a right price for deals but I just don't find it helpful to chase that rainbow. I'd prefer to be surprised when the rainbow comes out after enduring several years of storm, tempest and trolls.

The share price does not reflect the progress made over the past year. Thank god Zaza is paying YA in cash as I would not like to see any YA selling pressure from this level.

All in all a good day with a bit of blue.

Sonny flip over and read page 14 next. Pretty sure the well economics there are based on zone 9/14/15. I need to do some digging into the history of the flows and profiles from the deeper zones as to get to 1m barrels (from the 520k in the model) must involves not just zone 19 but deeper horizons as well. But if you really can drill a deeper well into eldari b for an increment above the cost of eldari a well and have access to all the zones then the long term economics on the wells will be significantly higher.

And that is why if you focus on the asset and there is a credible plan (technical and financial) to deliver it the current share price starts to look significantly disconnected. For the past few years we have lacked the capacity to fund the campaign we have just executed. Consider also the technical side alone is the culmination of over 15 years learning through expensive false starts - for which I'm sure both Block and Schlumberger will befit from greatly.

Starrage and its worth remembering that is of course just the plan for taribani. You can do similar at Mirzani and then you have Basin Edge and the Mtsare and Taribani deep Gas as separate plays.

The first step to stabilising the company has always been revenue generation. I think we will hear that shortly and I'm not sure we will have to wait for T39. For me no logical reason why the zone 14/15 Eldari A result from T45 and Dino can't come on its own ahead of T39 Eldari B.

Page 11 of the May presentation is the 250 well plan that Zaza is talking about.

The 10,000 boepd target as per that was aimed at 2022 and would be around 20 wells. So to be doing that in 2020 looks like a big ask. The plot appears to broadly attribute a bit over 400 boepd per well (that aligns with WHI numbers).

When doing the presentation the point was made that doubling the number of rigs drilling brings the plan in the chart forward. So its possible that is what they have in mind especially if you go for the eldari b as you don't need to stimulate so its a drill, cement, perforate and flow pattern.But to hit the boepd number on each well would seem to need either more production from zone 19 and below or comingle and that we don't have the data to reconcile at the moment. Its safer to look at the payback on each well and the EUR and work from that.

Different people will inevitably focus on different things in that podcast (and I'm not referring to ODR observations on the delivery technique of the hostess).

Personally, there is always information to be gleaned. Small things. We now know the funder of Niko was a Hedge Fund (not Outrider I hope - perhaps a Mr Hope connection???). We see that Niko was planned to be Eldari A like T39 but like T39 the interest is shifting to Eldari B and needs a change to the arrangement. as it was agreed on the basis of a 3 Eldari a zone.

It sounds increasingly like they are looking at the deeper zones to form the vanguard of the Taribani 250 well campaign. Eldari B first and then Eldari A later. That is also very interesting given the CPR only addresses zone 19 and above and envisaged a single zone horizontal well approach.

Its pretty clear that the campaign in taribani has proved the technique and got a team together of service providers (Baker Hughes, Weatherford, EDI, the Azeri drillers and Romanian fraccers working with Frontera own team plus Uniserve to dill (deepen or sidetrack) and complete the wells on time and budget.

Your key takeaways as a long term investor is that in taribani they look to have a repeatable process now to drill wells, they know how to cement and complete the wells. They know plenty more about the Eldari b zones below from the Niko drilling. So November might be very interesting if they go deep.

UD2 - well the gas is there and it isn't going anywhere and the key message is that the campaign flowed the formation but it needs a proper new drilled well or sidetrack. People will just have to find their own way to get over that. What did they expect Zaza to say in a podcast? Were they expecting him in sack cloth and ash whipping himself? Not the time or place.

My own focus is on the likely near term revenue and the growing asset size. I'm comfortable with the 1,000 bopd YE target. That seems eminently conservative and achievable and in iine with my own assumptions about where we are likely to end up on T45/Dino/T39. That would leave the company is a pretty good financial position going into a full field development whether it includes Niko or not. Hence, the days of dilution may be already at an end (hence in part the prompt about alignment of shareholder to board). Dilution is not coming from YA but there remains some vendor debt that could yet be converted into equity.

If Frontera transitions into a business paying its own way and accessing funds to leverage the assets I am very comfortable with that approach. It is the assets that will ultimately attract deals and that has always been the case. Too many here pin short term hopes on that. My view has always been to concentrate on the underlying business that way you will be surprised by a left field event rather than disappointed it has not happened yet. But I don't think this will ever be a boring share to hold plenty of twists and turns yet.

End of August......if you are invested don't let your frustration turn into negativity.

Emblaze and it was very quick within weeks of that conversation they had worked stage 1 of ud2!

Before that was done they had no idea what the result of perforating and flowing would be. The well logs showed gas all the way down to 5000m. So once the well obstruction was fished out and cleaned what would your expectation have been if you perforated a logged well?

Gas is flowing but the well is compromised due to a combination of poor cement and excessive drill mud both related to poor drilling practices from the 1980s. The sidetrack is a very viable option at UD2 but was not affordable.

Be thankful he got not one but two man fundraises away else you would not be looking forward to taribani results on 3 wells and the share price would have been destroyed by yorkville.

Tough period at the moment but I would take a step back and look at the wider context before zeroing in just on ud2.

Again the answer to that Puddy is one of perspective.

If you were supporting a football team and after 5 minutes they were losing 1-0 does that score matter? Or is the result over the match or even the season?

The share price matters more for those with short term horizons. To take a football analogy again if you were getting on just the match it matters more that you are 1-0 down. If you were getting on the result over a season you would be less concerned. If the team keep losing every week and the game were running out then again the perception changes. Two people watching the same match can have different perspectives.

I doubt anybody wants to see a low share price who supports the team.

That will be an additional factor in respect of timing over that period but the closed periods at this time of year for him would mean the window to make the purchase was limited.

Of course he would have done it to show conference and probably to encourage YA to roll over the preference shares arrangement and show the institution funding Niko he had skin in the game. He bought in the open market shares people here were selling. Only at FRR is a director buy treated with scepticism. Most companies see director buys and holdings as signs of confidence.

I think speculating about board share buys timing is easily explained. May would be the last time Zaza could buy before the full year results end if June and half year results seotember periods block out the diary for a month on each so June and August would be blocked. Given the campaign results or potential results July would be difficult. So the answer is probably as simple as if he wanted to increase holding that was the available opportunity and will have nothing to do with whether you believe ud2 had already failed or not in may.