Member Info for Moleinahole

Well I don't suppose Levan would get any credit on here from many for getting our money out of Turkey in H1 else we could have found ourselves $2m+ short as I doubt the Turkish court would favour a us aligned company now!

13% of todays trades are mine! Madpunter I think you are way off the mark with your conspiracy theory. I suspect any accumulation here is existing small PI holders while there has been broad background trades going on around .27 to .28 level as that seems to be where the MM have placed us usually with a wide spread waiting the next move.

One of my observations is that the board keep buying to keep a @25% holding in known safe hands to defend against monkey business.

Following on from Devex post this morning I believe we are indeed still following the plan here. 2016 was a grim year but important. Since 2011 the various programs have failed to get us sufficient revenue to cover general expenses and operations let alone investment in the block. The debt overhang was a significant deterent and the lack of revenue problematic in achieving alternative finance hence the reliance on management loans and PI's buying YA SEDA shares.

They had to both reduce the debt and in addition raise the funds for the 2018 campaign to generate revenue. This was essential to be attractive to alternative funders like EBRD. They will need the revised CPR to attract other non dilutive institutional funding but I notice EBRD various arrangements including matched funding with other instututions.

So the taribani field development plan (different of course to the declaration of commercial feasibility which covers the block eldari a and associated structures) always required funding from loans and the lenders will want to see a revenue stream to underpin the business plan. That has to be the point we are at. Sustainable flows mean a sustainable and credit worthy business plan. They are simply not going to loan $25m+ on initial flows and if the plan is for more wells like T39 in zone 19 then rates for all 3 wells become important in determining the business case.

Niko being funded on a % share basis also indicates to me that was a stop gap arrangement pending finalisation of something that would unlock the broader funding possibly to show we had other options. Whether the "arbitration" is playing a part here is hard to determine (banks will like certainty of title) but ultimately FRR will take the field development plan with its associated funding package to the joint company that administers the Block PSA for approval and that includes the government agencies - so there are a few threads here that need to come together (the geology, politics, finance).

But it has gone very quiet indeed..........and we have our congressional friends in town.......

Star you are correct. And if people would prefer not to have podcasts and shareholder meetings then I'm sure the company can oblige. Alternately just don't attend and don't watch them.

I don't know what industry some people posting on here work in but I doubt it involves engineering in a mineral or hydro carbon exploration environment. You have to leave the company to execute the operations with a degree of flexibility. If you don't trust them you should have sold up and gone to another AIM company to see if they are any better.

They have had plenty of time with not fracking T39 to have done work at T45 or Dino. But if they have not then I'm sure they will explain why in an RNS with a bit more elaboration in a podcast or meeting.....but you can choose not to attend or listen and just read the RNS when it comes which it will.

The last RNS was 19th July. You then had two podcasts just over a week later. And still people are saying they have not heard anything!

Bigun if someone was going to make any sort of offer for assets in block 12 it won't be by buying a relatively small number of shares. It will be most likely a farm in. The company objective is ultimately to achieve a transaction but I wouldn't be trying to guess when that might be. If you are a long investor I would say the best price is once we have proved up. Its possible we have reached that point with the 2018 campaign.

On the assets we have low extraction cost, low capes, valuable low sulphur high API oil. That is important with regulations coming in for 2020 and it will make the oil attractive. The gas isn't going anywhere and if they now have more data to support the CPR then it remains an attractive exploration proposition.

Not long to wait on the oil campaign numbers.

Star the problem is that the Reuters number seems to show a single institution where the holding built up of exact multiples of several but not all the ya disposals. Yet we know we have an institution of some sort holding £1.5m.

So the numbers simply don't add up unless the institution is not of a type Reuters call or measure as an institution.

Consequently I read little into the reuters number and certainly would be very careful in using them to suggest position building.

How many AIM companies do you know who have featured in Resolutions of the US House? FRR are not a major and don't have a large budget to spend on anything that is not essential - apart from Q4 2017 they have not engaged lobby since 2012.

The lobbying is likely directly related to the arbitration and as the return post dates the April announcement means it is carrying on in the background. That is why I have been watching to see it lodged and why I have posted it.

Lobby returns for Q2 now on the register. Repeat of Q1 in terms of spend but very commerce/trade focused.

1. AKIN GUMP STRAUSS HAUER & FELD $10,000 2 lobbyists
Specific lobbying issues: Exploration and production matters in Eastern Europe.
House(s) of Congress and Federal agencies : U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, Energy - Dept of, Vice President of the U.S., U.S. Trade Representative (USTR)

2. Cornerstone Government Affairs, Inc. $50,000 9 lobbyists
Specific lobbying issues: Exploration and production matters in Eastern Europe

U.S. SENATE, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, State - Dept of (DOS), Commerce - Dept of (DOC), Energy - Dept of, U.S. Trade Representative (USTR)

Anyone know any other AIM companies engaged in activity like this? Shame the company has to invest in political support but shows the lengths the Board are going to protect our interests.

Free - the $100m MCAP (or £) is often cited by people as a level used by Institutions to invest usually mutual funds. That is usually equity. Each institution will have its own approach to risk and hence the markets they play in and at what price.

However if a company has a good business case then I don't think the MCAP is as relevant (in this case proven in the field and backed by an independent CPR). A lender will be more interested in the security and ability to service or repay loans. If the loan has a convertible element or option then obviously the MCAP comes into the picture as no secured lender would want an illiquid share.

The hedge fund investor in Niko is a straight buy of an interest in an asset and they clearly were interested in the asset not the MCAP as no equity is involved.

If Frontera don't issue a lot of shares going forwards any institution that wants to buy in for instance as part of a mutual fund might end up having to buy in the open market and as observed earlier the equity remains significantly in small PI investor hands.

So the more certainty (e.g. longer flow rates and detailed information) will unlock finance at a lower price (be it equity or loan) compared to a small company trying to do it without it. Lack of cheap finance has probably been the single most significant problem since 2010 the company has faced leading to an increased roll for YA..

An observation for You Puddy. if you look at the drop from the shareholder meeting in may to now you will find @ 70% of the drop occurred before the last RNS on UD2 and only @ 30% after and most of that happened over a week later! The drop has been in low volume and both the initial and the secondary drop post the RNS was accompanied by a torrent of negativity posted on here. The % pre news is even more marked if you took at a spike point post Jan 2018 but post May takes YA out of the equation.

Lash is thinking the same as me. The long well test has to be to prove commerciality to secure EBRD (most likely) or bank finance (less likely unless they have updated the CPR to move from reserves out of the possible category) or possibly a 3rd party farm in (outside chance). On the oil the campaign has been executed on time and on budget and all 3 wells hit the target zones and flowed pretty much as expected. It is only the deep rooted cynicism here that means the expectation is that results will now be poor.

I also agree with Lubumbashi that while the battle for UD2 ended up in a setback (the well was just a mess they explored from 3200m up to 2500m looking for sections to work and each of them they tried was compromised by the soviet drilling practices) - the gas field (and province) is far from dead. It will be very interesting to see what happens up the road in Schlumberger block in H2 2018 - a discovery at the top end of the Kura Basin would have important implications for the meat of the basin which is in Block 12. The more you look at the geology it would be more surprising if the deep gas was not there - I always come back to the NSA CPR very high recovery rates attributed to the formation - if it was that tight it would be lower so I am inclined to still believe the issue is indeed the well not the formation. Whilst I wouldn't rule out a side track on UD2 - a new well would be the best option (funded by a deep pocketed partner is also not off the table by any means and they will be looking at the data not the raw flow result that PI's have focussed on).

WHI have maintained their valuation based on the oil and nothing has changed their view and we remain significantly discounted to their conservative valuation.

One final observation. The institution locked in 6 month from 19th Feb - so 19th August is the end of the lock in. make of that what you will around oil results - they wold have known the plan and likely time frames when they locked in £1.5m.

Lash - I didn't respond to the previous poster as I'm now suspicious of the sudden arrival if concerned long term holders posting for the first time.Seymour on III keeps raising this question of a production license. I'm not sure there is such a thing here. We took on a license that already had 6 producing fields. We have the license for block 12 and a related PSA with terms.

The declaration of commerciality activated clauses in the PSA around cost recovery of production oil. In the same way the declaration of the study is governed by the PSA. I just don't think we are waiting on any production license. Its never been mentioned in any RNS and I have not seen it in any documentation for FRR or indeed other Georgian PSA I have seen (e.g. BLOCK and Georgia Oil on other blocks). Might download the Georgian gas laws again tonight for a further read.

Agreeing the full field development I believe would be with the company that administers the PSA I believe which is made up of equal shares of FRR and GOGC (representing SAOG) with disputes sent to Stockholm for arbitration!

Cheesie/Timster - I will only reply to any technical type questions/points but I'm fed up of reading constant negativity and have filtered a very large number of posters simply now to avoid responding to general moaning, groaning and ranting.

People are tending to look to justify a negative view and that feeds into the share price on low volume - reflect on that when you post.

What I will say is that you have no basis to call the results as likely to be bad on T45 and Dino as you have no data from any of the well flows over the last 20 years on a properly cemented well to justify that view for zones below 9. On that basis the results could range over a very wide range either side of the previous reported settled (not day 1 flows).

I'm unlikely to post anything here to change those who have a negative mindset so I'm inclined to wait for the results - which will come when they are ready and I remain of the view that since April the company attention is more likely to be aimed at other stakeholders who are not waiting for an RNS with baited breath.

Zaza wanted till the end of August to show what had been achieved - its 1 year since the first new format shareholder presentation and to me that comment was made in Georgia on the 1st September 2017. So he is not outside any timelines I have heard. Of course I'd like to see the progress made over the last year translate into the share price - everyone does.

I think we may be reprising the Varang plan from RNS 2015!

"Re-entry, sidetrack and frac-completion of the Niko #1 well. Siide track of the T-#31 and T-#16 wells in order to apply frac-completions to Zones 14 and 15 - based on the Company's reservoir performance modeling, it is anticipated that these two wells can achieve daily production rates of 300 bopd per well."

There must have been a reason why T31 and T16 were selected for side track - partly location maybe.

T23 was a very prolific well so upper zones may have been well exploited but the deeper zones not. The CPR has a good commentary on the taribani well for those interested in detail.

Pecten the original CPR envisaged Taribani being developed as single zone horizontal wells starting zone 9 to try and connect to the natural fractures using the width of the horizontal run in large part to avoid the vertical where poor drill/cementing risks influx of sediment across a longer section crossing different layers of the formation. I'm not sure they were very long horizontal like you see in USA shale these days. I'm pretty sure they tried it on Niko (which has had several different side track experiments drilled) 12 or 13 years ago. The original Niko well was vertical multi zone and unstimulated.

The current wisdom is that the answer is carefully drilled vertical wells with proper cementing. For eldari a (zone 9, 14 and 15) you then apply high powered stimulation into small sections of the payload and fracture out deep into the surrounding formation to connect into the natural fractures and eldari b the properties mean it does not need stimulation.

The obvious advantage of the vertical is that you can access multiple zones from a single well making the economics better and they are probably cheaper. So if zone 19 wells are only marginally more expensive to drill but cheaper to complete and flow well going deep makes a lot of sense to me.

So I think at the moment give they are looking for a large funding package the data being gathered in the current program will need processing to present to funders. And yes if you proposed what FRR are doing around Gatwick you would get a lot of protests. Work at Taribani is not going to disturb anyone..

And I can't be bothered to post most days and have left the board to go through the cycles of grief with large swathes of red filter lines on display.

Off the ball are you involved in business in whatever day job you do?

Banks and large funders regularly have access to priveleged information under NDAs including access to books of account and contracts. They are not equity holders so are not interested in the share price they provide loans.

Your constant negativity means I am now filtering you so this is the last reply you will see from me.

If you consider the last two deals have been with institutional investors and they have said on more than one occasion now they are looking at institutional funding (RBL or Convertible Bonds) then the focus of management attention is in a different direction.

Those stakeholder groups have time to wait and will be uninterested in podcasts and probably even RNS as they will be looking at a different evidence base to support their investment decision. Lenders are the kind of stakeholders who want longer tests with conclusive results.

Posted before saw your reply and yes we agree.

So taking your approach pecten it would be 650 to 675 bopd to perm back to that $14m plus the YA money. So again that would be made up of 100 current production and average 220 to 230 from the 3 wells.

Again not unrealistic numbers and in line with what has so far been RNS.

Of course the company need to do better than that to handle interest payments, repay debt due in 2020 and fund future nvestments. But it's a start.

Yes.

You will get flow rates in RNS soon enough.

But to post you can't see how you get to 1000 bopd with all the information available is disingenuous.

What you are really saying is you don't believe anything.

I'm ok with that but don't say you can't work out how 1000 bopd is possible as there are multiple permutations to get there in 5 months.