Member Info for Moho30

Mmm. Moving to the main LSE board with stricter corporate governance requirement and a 4 month reporting deadline. Hard to see ! I've enough isolated stock on JP Jenks that I don't even want to think about it.

I think it's fairly easy to come up with a whole load of reasons why investors are avoiding :

Ongoing governance concerns - This is the second year running where accounts have not been produced on time. They have less than two weeks to produce something or we are looking at yet another suspension. My guess is a big part of this is the valuation of the Niger asset in the Balance Sheet, and PKF are quite rightly focussing on whether SAVE even have a continued right to these assets, given that Niger would like to move these on to someone who is actually going to work them. PKF maybe waiting for some assurance from Niger Government on this to sign off on the holding value. If not forthcoming, they may want to add a significant qualification on this.

Concentration of control by AK/NIPCO - Is there a long term strategy at play here ? No idea, but a long suspension may result in shareholders throwing in the towel and accepting a low ball offer. I don't think there is an immediate delist risk, but I don't want to be holding during another LT suspension period.

The Chad settlement seems to have been kicked down the road. Again it's an uncertain recovery amount in an uncertain time frame.

Nigeria is ticking along and recoverables improving but it's not wildly exciting.

Whats the whole 'Projects that Matter' all about ? The strategy is confusing, and the renewable investments seem to have been a drain rather than contributed anything to the bottom line.

Hxul. That's always been my concern. Nick Beattie, the CFO is probably the only one who understands the numbers and has sight of the full picture. AK is obviously pursuing some agenda noone is aware of. CFO has never participated in any of the placings and holds no shares. Usually best to follow the CFO. If they are investing then do likewise, if not, maybe a good reason. Niger looks dead, which was my original reason to invest. I don't understand what the company is doing any more, and I don't like the governance with AK seeming able to do as he pleases.

My biggest issue is that the AGM notice provides very limited explanation for the audit delay and contains little substantive discussion of solvency, debt position, covenant headroom, liquidity or going concern matters, all of which shareholders would normally expect before being asked to approve major corporate authorities (ie no 2025 accounts). The proposed authorities would allow the Board to issue a very substantial amount of new equity, including up to approximately 20% of existing share capital on a non-pre-emptive basis, creating significant potential dilution risk for existing shareholders over what we have already experienced. Re, The share premium cancellation, again we are left to speculate on the intentions, Have lenders or creditors requested or influenced this proposal? Is it a contingency against the Chad arbitration not being settled any time soon or being significantly less than anticipated, so they want max flexibility on future funding options. As usual all very opaque. it seems to me holders are still only engaged for the two well documented reasons, and it's become a binary bet. Barely any upside comment about current operations and deal flow which is somewhat depressing, though I cling to Zen's nuggets of knowledge and enthusiasm

Hxul. Good point. Why hold the AGM at the start of June - if you expect to have the accounts ready to approve by the end of June which could be included in the AGM ? Seen it before. Get the capital raise business approved at the AGM while avoiding a ruck by promising shareholders accounts by the normal due date a month later - only for them not to appear - but at least you've sorted the other business. Usual spivy behaviour we've come to expect.

Market Makers are just trying to make a market, and in the deafening silence of SAVEs PR output that's probably extremely difficult. No idea why they didn't RNS the appointment of PKF as auditor. It was significant when BDO resigned and issues with audit sign off, so you would have thought that the appointment was a news worthy enough event that at least provided a crumb of comfort.

It seems SAVE eclectic mix of oil/gas/renewable & upstream/midstream/downstream means they're off a lot of stock watchers radars. All my Oil and Gas Cos have have seen decent rises - even where not warranted as mostly hedged production. I'm imagining most people don't quite know what SAVE is these days. It does still have 3.5-4 kbopd so not insignificant. Deafening silence on any ops updates. Hopefully they'll manage to get a set of Financials out in time this year.

Not sure what to make of this.

https://crime.hab.media/235430-the_cavannah_energy_web_how_andrew_knott_rovshan_tamrazov_and_turab_musayev_built_a_cross-border_network_tied_to_russian_oil_trading

On the basis we've have no news for quite a while, if there was ever a chance for an energy producer, with at least a slug of oil still in the mix, to put out some PR it has to be now.

Reggie - Careful what you wish for ! The next news maybe they've lost their main oil asset in Niger. Probably negotiating to retain them in the worst possible negotiating position as oil price bounces around $100. Plus ça change.

Shame SAVE not enjoying any of the oil price ride. Seems more correlated to the general drop in stock markets. They do have some exposure, with Stubb Creek producing just over 3,200 bbls/day, so around 1.2mmbo for the year. Of this 480,000 bbls is hedged with a floor - (presumably some collar in place as well, so upside maybe limited). I still thought the price may have got some impetus from $100+ oil. Bet they were wishing they'd actually done something with Niger - as I'm sure do the Niger gov't. Delivering 'Projects that Matter' but not to Niger it seems.

I don't blame the Niger Ministry. They want their licences worked and not sat on. Hopefully a shot across the bows but SAVE do seem remarkably unenthusiastic about them so maybe they'll use this as the time to work up a line to drop them. I hope not - as it was the original reason I brought in back in the heady days of 28p plus.

Under AIM Rules (particularly Rules 11 and 26), auditor changes must be disclosed promptly via an RNS announcement. AI telling me :

Savannah listing PKF as auditor on the website before formal appointment likely constitutes:

Breach of AIM Rule 26 disclosure accuracy requirement

Potential misleading disclosure to investors

It does not create legal appointment or liability for PKF, but creates professional risk that should be addressed immediately.

I don't think I'd take your bet based on SAVE governance form

Anyone else feel uneasy about the delay in appointing new auditors (muted as going to happen last year) - at the same time the chairman of the Audit Committee has just sold £120k worth of shares - especially as we enter the reporting season.

Good point ! I'm guessing the auditor beauty parade had a fairly short list of the willing - given they have to get the previous auditor sign off. I'd like to see a top tier audit co on board and ideally a new strong CFO who is not there merely to do his masters bidding - and maybe even buy a few shares. Lets hope we're not back into suspension mode around the annual report release again.

He said Savannah Energy has continued to showcase its resilience and financial robustness. - Well it's still afloat and just about solvent as far as we know if that's what he means

Porschefund - A good spot - and just another example of sloppy corporate governance. While this is easily rectified, the bigger picture in CG and risk management has largely led us to where we are today. When I was working for listed Cos the Chairman and board would be spitting fire at such a basic lapse, but these seem now to be integral in management and the Board.

I was strangely thinking the same and as far as I can tell they are not in a close period. I'd particularly like NK, the CFO to show some faith in the company he is in control of and buy some stock. He has never brought shares - which maybe makes him the smart guy - and the only one who knows what the company has become.

Thanks Zen, and well aware of GKP, and the antics of the rather affable Todd Kozel - Who I believe is now in jail ! Even though the end station turned out well if you'd stayed in, I'm hoping we're not on the same train journey as GKP - and for every GKP that eventually came off, there are plenty more train wrecks that come to mind. (IOG, AST, VOG, Xcite, San Leon to name a few)

Zen - I like your enthusiasm, and can't dispute the numbers. The key bit is in the first 2 lines "SAVE IPO 2014 56p - Down 88%". The potential asset and receivable/arbitration settlement valuation are public knowledge but not being reflected in the share price. Why ? After a series of value destructive deal, I think the market has lost faith in the Company's ability to use cash/credit to make good investment decisions. That, and the corporate governance/suspension issues. Normally, buybacks are frowned on as it suggests the company can't use the cash to create value better than the individual shareholder, but this may well not be the case. Certainly the rest of my portfolio has performed significantly better than my SAVE investment - bar a couple of highly speculative punts. I'm still in because as you point out the current price is so far removed from the potential underlying asset value, but the Board have to show they can do some deals that result in not just projects that matter - but actually create value.