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Agreed in principle. That's also assuming hydrostatic. If there is any height of gas column the pressure and concentration should be higher. The mud gas does also dilute things- although not an absolute measurement, the increasing trend with depth is good relative measurement and what we want to see.
The wireline formation evaluation shouldn't be impacted significantly by delay, as this is gas and not heavy oil we are sampling for. Ie quick cleanup in matrix. The acquisition of pressure data will not be impacted at all, which is as important as sampling, for calculating recoverable volumes. Increasing mud gas with depth has already provided enough data to inform likely concentrations. We are however critically missing calibration of the pressure regime of the gas column(s) in the drilled section. Taking pressure points will not be impacted by any delays as long as we can get the tool down.
This being said the highest pay zone is likely at TD (top basement) which we will probably not sample with wireline as this is fractured. The drilling data should see step change in mud gas which is the primary dataset to infer productivity prior to well test in this zone. Step up in Helium concentration in the fracture zone at top basement puts this towards a discovery already in my experience. Everything above this zone is a bonus.
The observation that He increased at top basement with losses is the key data point irrespective of MDT. The market has not factored this in yet. The Loss Control Marerial (LCM) is standard technique to stem losses West of Shetland in this top basement fracture zone that commonly occurs in BP Clair and HUR fields on the Rona Ridge. A well test with PLT through this interval in a deepened well is how we do it in the UK as the MDT is not great for cleaning up LCM.
I completely agree with you that a strong loss zone at top basement is a game changer for this company. This is where most of Hurricane's reserves were (following the 2021 rebase) in addition to the onlapping fractured Jurassic. Thanks to the reservoir engineer who went into HUR to sort out that mess with honesty in 2020. I am seeing a very honest CEO in HE1.
A slow well with losses at top basement and above is great news! A quick well without losses would have been a poor outcome, eg Noble.
Unlike Noble, HE1 has likely a commercial well. Depth should provide pressure, as any gas reservoir needs it. Fracture zone indicated by drilling mud losses indicates productivity. Pressure x productivity = commercial well.
You need to multiply mobility by gas viscosity. Noble's permeability is not that high. Ie x 0.04 cP = 4 to 40 mD. That's for matrix. For fracture deliverability you need to do a well test or at least have high losses, where permeability can be 10s of Darcy if you hit a fault zone. From multiple decades of drilling fractured reservoir, going slow in the reservoir is actually good news for permeability if there are losses. A slow well is generally indicative of better fracture permeability than a quick one!
Clean up when sampling takes time depending on permeability. The more sample stations also the more time. Free gas should clean up quickly though, so hopefully the latter. Fractured basement is sometimes unforgiving with losses and could have resulted in difficulty at the bottom of the well if permeable.
Agreed, RNS possible/likely by this coming Tuesday (25/07/2023), when HOC Q2 Production Results call has been scheduled. Think likely positive news and jump in EV. EV/EBITDA currently less than 3.
El Ministerio de EnergĂa y Minas (MINEM) en su rol de promotor del desarrollo co https://www.gob.pe/es/n/800738
All aboard. Shorts bye bye.
https://gestion.pe/economia/minem-hay-9-proyectos-mineros-que-tendrian-prioridad-en-la-aceleracion-de-permisos-noticia/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/rbc-capital-markets-reiterates-hochschild-mining-lse:hoc-outperform-recommendation
Analyst Price Forecast Suggests 56.18% Upside
As of April 24, 2023, the average one-year price target for Hochschild Mining is 112.22. The forecasts range from a low of 101.00 to a high of $141.75. The average price target represents an increase of 56.18% from its latest reported closing price of 71.85.
Handbags ladies.
This week is like out of that cavalry charge scene in braveheart: " hold, hold, hold". Just hope that the tree spears referenced as "twice as long as a man" are 16 ft in length and not 16 inches.