Member Info for Mitch984

Very pleased that Glencore is now out, but any signs of an early takeover bid for our shares has now gone in my view. So no buy-out or buy-in that will reward private shareholders.

At least another one to two years therefore before our shares are trading at anywhere near their true value.

"Why did "trader" Glencore ever want it on its books, without an obvious ambition to develop...?"

Feeks - as 99 rightly says, Glencore inherited Zanaga by taking over Xstrata. Glencore do not develope mines so Zanaga has never been a priority for them at all.

As to why Simandou is being developed at 10x the capital cost of Zanaga? That has always been a mystery. My theory is that Glencore never wanted (and still don't want) Zanaga to pass to one of their rivals (like Rio), so would never have agreed to a similar auction to Simandou.

Even now, Glencore are still in control because they have retained the distribution rights to the ore. So that means any potential developer not only has to negotiate a buy-in or buy-out with Zioc, but also has to negotiate distribution rights with Glencore.

My personal opinion is that if Zioc had managed somehow to get rid of Glencore completely, this forum would be no more - as we would all have been celebrating some time ago. Beardozer would have his house and I would have re-written my will instead of wondering what my offspring will do with my Zioc shares. :)

" Given its low capital entry credentials, how and why did Simandou ever jump the queue on Zanaga? Why now and not before?"

One word - Glencore.

"I don't think the event is intended for fund managers. Fund managers would expect and would get their own meeting."

I may be wrong 99, but when the first postponed date came out I thought it was mentioned that a venue had not been confirmed because the intention was for the event to attract as large an audience as possible, and not just shareholders.

That does seem to have changed a little with the rearranged date, the 5pm time, and the venue.

I know we spend far too much time analysing RNSs from Zioc and trying to read between the lines, but am I the only one that thinks the 5pm time for the Event sounds that it will be more like a celebration than it will be a serious business presentation?

You won't get fund managers there at 5pm - they will be on their way home. With the time difference, 5pm is also outside the working day in China, South Africa, Saudi etc etc.

Strange time of day for business. Great time of day to celebrate something significant?

Clearly something important is still being worked on in the background that AT/Marty still think can be resolved/finalised in the next 24 hours to go ahead with the Event.

However notification of cancellation or postponement any later than tomorrow would really show a stunning disregard for shareholders.

"Yes, we really haven’t seen demand for years now, which is why I’m not worried as when the volume does arrive we all know the supply is finite."

That is why I'm concerned how the share price can rise above (say) 20p without a buy-in or buy-out.

This is AIM. Its all small investors. If there is positive news along the lines of the two recent MOUs - or even better , a strategic investor providing funds for feed etc, we will possibly attract some newbies and the price will rise to (say) 15p. Then they will sell taking their 20-50% profit, and without any further news, we will drift back to 10p again

For our share price to rise to where it should be without a buy-in/buy-out, we need institutional investors to buy in big time or new large private buyers like the two we had in 2018. As NewKOTB says, we haven't seen either for years unfortunately.

I think the difference this time Shaun, compared to 2019, is that I thought invites were going to go out this time to institutional investors as well as existing shareholders.

With how far ahead institutions set their schedules, its unlikely many will be able to attend at such short notice.

Could it be Zanaga are in detailed negotiations on something and they are not therefore sure they can do ahead with the event on February 11th?

Or could it be that Zanaga are just being as inefficient and uncaring about their shareholders as they always have been?

As I type this, the "Ask" price is 14.9p. Clearly an LSE mistake - although part of me hopes its not!

Big sales today, so expect an announcement of a delay of some kind.

The words "tight" and "ship" have never been applicable to KP2 sadly.

Which is also why we should all have learned by now to never over-analyse the always poorly-worded Zioc RNSs.

""More detailed information on the Investor Event will be announced shortly".

22 days ago and counting. Sadly AT's definition of "shortly" and shareholders' definition have always differed markedly.

Driving - yes I agree that its about to happen.

But even if we are classed as a Tier 1 asset, we still need a huge influx of share buyers to go from 8p to 150p, and don't forget there will be plenty of sellers along the way too that will adversely affect the share price.

If we were main market and funds could buy in, then possibly. But this is AIM.

I can see us gradually getting to 50p if we have a string of news announcements that keep us in the Top Risers each day, but 2-3 weeks without news and people sell to bank their 15-20% and the share price falls back.

That is why I am hoping for a strategic to buy into Zioc, or even better - a full buy-out.

"Just the merest whiff of Strategic involvement **of any kind** and we are back at IPO in an instant. "

Hi MM,

I certainly hope you are right on the above, and I very much appreciate your recent posts.

However I am at a total loss how we can get back to the IPO price without a buy-in or buy-out. This is AIM after all, and there has never been and realistically can never be enough demand for shares to get us to the IPO price.

I think I'm right in saying that we only got to 20-22p when we had a couple of private buyers making large share purchases about 7 years ago?

Am I missing something about how the share price will rise without a buy-in or full buy-out? Perhaps you could input that into ChatGPT and see what it comes up with? Or maybe you have the answer on the mechanics?

"maybe Zanaga is serious in becoming a miner"

Personally I think that has to be the starting point for any discussion.

Absolutely everything in just about every Zioc RNS has indicated that Zioc intend to develope the mine with the help of a strategic partner/investor.

Talk about a buy-out is still conjecture at this point. Its still very much my preferred outcome - I really do not want to wait another 4 or 5 years for the mine to get into production for my Zioc shares to be worth what they should be.

However I think Zioc really do want to develope the mine as a senior partner with another entity. And it won't be Glencore in my view. They are happy with their distribution rights - and that is the biggest handicap to an outright sale of Zioc.

Touch wood, February 11th will prove me totally wrong!

To be fair, the RNS did not state that Zioc would announce a strategic partner at the Investor Event, just that they would update shareholders on the process. See below.

Like you, personally I think anything that has been actually signed would have to be released to the market as soon as it is signed as it would clearly be a material event.

Of course if a strategic partner has been agreed but nothing signed as yet, then it could well be announced at the Investor Event without any issues. However I just hope "update shareholders on the process" doesn't mean telling us that Marty is still working hard on finding a strategic partner! I don't think that will be the case, but this is Zioc after all.....

From the RNS:-

"...is pleased to announce that the Company intends to provide an update to shareholders on the Company's strategic partner process whilst also providing further information on the Zanaga Iron Ore Project's development plans."

"That RNS is super badly written!!!!!"

Zioc RNS' have already been badly written. One of my big complaints over many years. Poor choice of words and phrases so they end up being unclear and ambiguous.

That is why I put more faith in AT's spoken words in his interview than I do in the wording of the RNS.

Nothing to do with delta hedging MM. We have no institutions involved as yet, and the individual share transactions over the past week have not been large enough to involve delta hedging.

It has all been small share sales. In other words its the usual selling by small traders once they have made their 10-20%. We have seen this so often over the past ten years with Zioc shares, so I am surprised that you think the trading volume (which had not been high each day) indications anything more complex.

We will see another rise as soon as more news is announced, then hopefully something much more concrete on February 11th. We desperately need something that results in a permanent re-rate of our grossly undervalued share price. Otherwise the rise/fall we have seen once again over the past ten days will just repeat ad infinitum.

I am therefore desperately hoping one of your excellent suggestions as to what may occur on/after February 11th will turn out to be spot on!

Futsal. You are clearly very much a newbie I can see to this share.

A buy out or buy in will of course result in a more than decent reward along the lines of what all us long suffering shareholders deserve.

However announcing a series of partnerships to move towards construction over the next five years will be no different to what we have had to put up with over the past ten years. Research COIDIC.

Institutional investors will not buy Zioc shares until the mine is active and and a five year construction period will not attract enough volume from private long term investors to maintain a higher share price. Small investors and day traders will always take their profits and It will therefore be the exact same rise and fall profit-taking pattern the share chart will show you has been the case for the past ten years. Zioc has never ever maintained a share price rise, and has always sunk back when news dries up, however good the news has been.

Its needs an injection of capital or a buy-in to provide a valuation of the company that the share price can pin to. Or of course a buy out. Otherwise the share price will continue to be at the mercy of small traders and day traders , just as it has been over the past ten years.

Just look at the excellent news we have had over the past six weeks - the port agreement with more agreements to come, along with the investor event. Many were saying this will be 30p by Xmas, then by New Year. We got to 12p before the small/day traders cashed out. As always.

This is exactly why I want a buy-in (with a special dividend) or a buy-out.

Even with positive news about development/strategic partvers etc, the Zioc share price will never reach what it should be. We will never attract enough new long term shareholders to counteract the small/day traders who always take their 10-20% profit and sell.

So the share price will always do exactly what it has done the past ten days. Rise on promising news, and then fall back as the small traders who bought in sell to take their profit. I have seen it happen so many times over the years.

As a result, I just cannot see the share price ever getting above 20p without that buy-in/out. If we do develope the mine instead, it will only get above 20p in five years time when we are actually in production and institutions might at last buy some shares.

Apologies for the pessimism. I am still hoping for far more positive news that will reward all us long suffering shareholders on February 11th.