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"If anybody is waiting for 'true news announced from the company (or ideally from a 3rd party about Zanaga specifically) Shovels in the ground' then they are going to have to pay £1+. Personally I'm much happier joining the dots and paying pennies .. single pennies, that is. I guess that's just me. LOL."
Fully agree MM - but its only shovels in the ground that will get it to £1, without a buyout that is. 16-18p max on rumours, but an actual construction schedule to get it above that. Without a buyout that is.
"We REALLY, REALLY need the drag caused by last RNS to be removed and get those pesky tranches away ASAP."
In my view the share decline was not caused by the share placing. The rise prior to the RNS was the typical AIM speculation amongst small investors that a sale was going to be announced via the RNS. Once it wasn't, most sold out again - and the share price is now becalmed until the next set of board and twitter rumours.
Long term investors have seen this happen many many times before. The only rise in the share price which will hold will be when actual positive news is announced that is directly related to Zioc. I am hopeful we will see a rise in Q4 when the Chinese company announce their costings, but if there is no more news for months after that, we will sink back again.
Until, that is, a partnership is announced to finance and build the mine. That could come any time in 2024, especially now the Chinese are back in the game.
But until then the share price will be driven by small buys and sells based on rumours and conjecture. Don't underestimate the effect of being amongst the top five users on LSE and the number of new small investors that brings along. That alone can fuel a rise back to 16p.
Above that though, we need an announcement of construction finance - or (unlikely in my view until 2025 at the earliest) an outright purchase.
We have the Quarterly Review Of Operation due in the next few weeks.
Hopefully that will at least mention the significance of the port developmemnt by AD Ports and what effect that may have on KP2's route to market.
Of course, there will have to be an update on the EPC too, which will be the important part.
I just hope that, after a tweet and actually speaking to a shareholder (Veteran), AT doesn't disappear back into his Vision Blu world and instead continues to publicise the China company costing exercise and how important this is alongside the AD Ports news.
At the start of possibility the most important period in Zanaga's history, he should be doing an interview or two, tweeting, and talking up the huge potential of Zanaga - just as he used to three or four years ago.
"The work is NOT being duplicated, this is an entirely new set of work being done by a Chinese contractor who actually BUILDS iron ore mining and slurry pipelines. Not like the old work which was an evaluation done by a technical consultant who puts together studies on mine costs using only western suppliers of services.
The Chinese group is going to get pricing from Chinese construction sub-contractors for the work and believe they will be able to build it for much less than our previous estimates. We’ll also now have a Chinese cost build up in the Chinese language which we can share with potential Chinese investors!"
Thanks for getting that confirmation Veteran10 - info that really could have been better explained in Monday's RNS.
AS I said amongst all the doom and gloom on Monday, personally I think this is the most exciting Zioc development for many years. With the port development and the Chinese contstruction quote (and possible finance) we at last will have a proven route to market.
This also brings back the possibility of a Chinese buyout, but doesn't negate a buyout from elsewhere either. Alternately it can be partnership investment from China, Saudi, Vale etc.
If the constructions costs do come in at 20% lower that previously estimated, that can only be another positive. Either way development costs will be pinned down in Q4 - and then the competition to get involved with this world class green steel asset will begin!!
"We already did cost estimates two years ago: "
Shaun - but they were with western engineering firms. This is the first cost exercise done by a Chinese firm - and with the possibility of 20% savings on previous exercises, plus the first to cost the needed slurry pipe:-
"Chinese EPC Partner possesses specific, specialised, design and construction expertise in slurry pipeline projects as well as iron ore pellet feed concentrate projects similar to the Zanaga Project.
Guidance provided by Chinese EPC Partner that potential capital and operating cost savings of more than 20% could be achieved."
As I have said several times today, this is way more significant than many have realised. We now have China, Saudi, Vale, UAE, AD Ports all with possible eyes on Zanaga or working with Zanaga.
Admittedly there is the disappointment that there has been no buy-out offer as yet, so Zanaga have no option but to move along with the EPC. But if the China company comes up with a 20% reduction in capital and operating costs and a costing for the slurry pipe, that along with the port news will create a whole range of suitors.
Yes, its frustrating that nothing will happen for most of the rest of the year, and I share everybody's disappointment with the RNS, but I am still extremely positive that everything is falling into place.
"China has been name-checked time and time again in our interim's' and final's for some time now !"
Only through Coidic, and they disappeared from the scene during Covid. As far as I am aware this is the first reference to a specific (although still unnamed) China company providing updated costings for mine construction and slurry pipe since 2019.
With all the very valid join-the-dots work that MM and Extrader have done over the last few weeks, we all must now integrate China into the equation.
In my view, they are back - wanting the ore from Zanaga and Simandou. Not, as I previously thought, just wanting Simandou instead of Zanaga.
That does not rule out future involvement from Vale, or indeed direct Middle East involvement in Zanaga, but the Chinese are back involved for a reason.
We will find out more after we get the reduced costings for the project in Q4. Then its down to funding - and that is when it will all become clearer. I just hope the Chinese company gets the costings work done in Q4 as anticipated. They have a reputation of working very slowly - as KP2 have found out.
Until then though, we will be stuck with that depressed share price again unfortunately.
I concur with Phil - I think this is a good update too.
OK. Not a good one for all those buyers who came in during the share rise the past two weeks, but a good update for long term holders. The new Chinese involvement should not be undervalued. Despite all the talk of buyouts, the intention of Zioc has always been to develope the mine.
With the port news and the Q4 quote from the unnamed China company to build the mine and pipe, we have never been closer to someone coming in as a partner to develope.
That does not preclude an outright sale. Once we get the Q4 costings, especially if they show significantly lower capital cost than previously, potential partners - and possibly potential buyers - will start to emerge.
Just to clarify MM. Tomorrow its the Annual "Results" not an Annual "Report".
In others words it will be a historic RNS with no obligation at all to comment on events outside of the results year. Of course we all hope there is some mention of the port development as regards post-results comment, but there is no obligation for that to be included.
As MM says, it would possibly be more significant if the Annual Results are not released tomorrow, as there would then have to be a reason behind the delay. However I have a feeling they will be released tomorrow, and there will nothing in the way of significant news in them.
The big news will come through a separate RNS at some time in the future. There are too many other companies possibly involved for first news of it to be released in a routine Annual Results RNS.
"Not to pour cold water on our collective hopes for a conclusion to this decade long binary bet, but It's exceedingly unlikely that you'll see substantial fireworks in the yearly results AIM RNS... At best there might be some hints of progress, but nothing earth-shattering. -if there were earth-shattering news they would have had to release it separately."
Kongolasse is spot on with this.
"From the KRPZ board..
.."The annual audit is still ongoing and is well progressed, however, the Company will not be in a position to publish its annual report and accounts ("Annual Accounts") for the year ended 31 December 2022 ("FY22") by 30 June 2023, the deadline specified by AIM Rule 19. Consequently, the Company's shares will be suspended from trading on AIM with effect from 3 July 2023, pending publication of the FY22 Annual Accounts..."
I would be very concerned Extrader if we received something like that from Zioc. The above has nothing to do with anything that is impending - its a problem with the audit of historic accounts causing a delay.
The audit of historic accounts is usually straightforward unless something in the accounts merits further investigation. The audit would not be delayed because of something happening with KRPZ (investment, sale etc) that has yet to be announced and which relates to the current year's accounts.
"Nothing wrong with being very old! And it looks like Mr Market shares your analysis of ZIOC which is extremely depressing!
All LTHs want to see a takeover at multiples of the current SP and 25p is not on! I think true value is multiples of that but I accept LTHs will never see true value. Too many shenanigans in a geographical risk area. Anyway, I've cut my coat to suit my cloth and I'd now be delighted with 175p instead of 225p as I've found a nicer house that's £200k cheaper but ZIOC needs to get a move on!"
Hi Beardozer. Definitely agree 25p would be riduculous. That is me being selfish though. 25p for me to enjoy in my twilight years, or fair value for my offspring to waste later. (Thankfully my offspring are not forum members so won't read this!)
Lets hope there is at least one sentence in Monday's Annual Result RNS that keeps the hope and dreams going! And gets you that house!
Hi Extrader,
I haven't entered the sweep purely because I think the mine will be developed with a new partner rather than be sold outright.
Having said that, my personal preference is for a sale at any price above 25p. It would be grossly undervalued at that price I realise - but I'm very old.... :)
I expected this type of share price decline next week after the Annual Results, but find it very strange leading up to the RNS.
You would have thought profit takers would have waited and sold when they saw RNS didn't have any more info than we have had in past RNS's - as seems likely in my view due to non-disclosure etc.