Member Info for Miss_Dollar

I think this week will be huge for POLY as we have the fed interest rate decision/ FOMC minutes this evening and then POLY’s Q4 results tomorrow.

I think POLY is underpriced due to the Russia situation but this to me is a massive overreaction, let me explain:

Putin is a powerful man and by putting forces along the Ukraine border he has got the World’s attention and raised Russia’s profile.

I was looking at a precious metals report: https://auronum.co.uk/gold-price-news/ and noticed that platinum, palladium, gas and oil have all surged over the past few weeks since this situation has intensified. All these commodities Russia is a major producer of.

By putting forces on the border Putin has made the price of Russia’s key commodity exports go higher. He also had the world looking at Russia right now which increases their status on the global playing field.

Putin has already gained out of this situation, he doesn’t need to invade Ukraine right now. Tensions will subside and POLY will adjust higher

I wish I had more free funds to buy whilst this is still below £12 :(

I wouldn’t obsess about sp movements at the moment. We have expiration results on Monday and Q4 results Thursday. That will determine the sp for a while I imagine

Very strong support at £11/share as this price was where the market saw some aggressive u-turns when £11 was resistance. I thought it might get close to £11 but this move happened faster than I thought. I can’t see it breaking £11 unless Gold price dumps

Always remember, things look bullish at market tops and bearish at market bottoms

RDSA is still cheap relative to the oil price. I looked back at how many barrels of oil it takes to buy a single share in RDSA since 1988. Summer 1988 it took 25-28 barrels to buy a share.

The early 90s saw valuations creep up to 34-38 barrels per share. The valuation hit just over 40 bbls super share a fair few times in 1993, spending a lot of H2 1993 between 46-48 bbls. September 93 was the first time shell’s shares were worth 50bbl but this increased to 60bbl in December 93. Feb 94 was the first time valuations reached 70bbl

Valuations remained this high for some years before reaching 90bbls for the first time in July 97. 100bbl was reached in December in the same year. That’s one share of Shell worth 100bbls oil

By Summer 98 valuations reached 134 bbls

Fast forward to recent times, valuations in 2019 averaged 37.22bbls per share. 2020 averaged 32.94bbls.

Today’s valuation? 1 share is worth 21.36bbls

She’ll should go much higher from here

Well poly is down more than cey so maybe the local issues are a problem. The uk intends to put some sanctions on Russia which does not help. I think this latest move is just part of a wider sell off as markets expect gold prices to break lower. It’s not worth selling at these levels but I wouldnt want to jump in with both feet either. Definitely worth averaging down I think as the market heads into the high £11s

I have been wondering the same thing, I wonder if the state of emergency declared in Kazakhstan has anything to do with it. I do not know if the riots are close to our mines or if they affect the mines in any way. I think Poly is well supported at £11/share but why is it falling to them levels when gold is standing firm? Gold is actually up slightly against the USD and GBP. The only thing that makes sense to me is people are selling POLY in anticipation that rising us bond yields are going to push Gold lower, that would make sense in a way but is that what is actually happening here?

Well today was frustrating as many stocks (including banks) were up 5% yet poly was the only red share on my watchlist

I have seen a few articles regarding the price of gold in 2022.

Deutsche Bank: "Despite still high inflation gold seems unlikely to have a good 2022. We forecast a price of US$ 1'750 per ounce at end-December 2022."

Credit Suisse: "Gold price forecast XAU/USD at risk of tanking to US$ 1'561 on a breach of 1'691."

ABM: "2022 could be a disaster as they see gold prices falling 16% seeing gold prices falling to US$ 1'500 an ounce by the end of next year ...and dropping to US$ 1'300 an ounce by the end of 2023."

Natixis: "In its precious metals forecast for 2022 Natixis expects an average gold price of US$ 1'630 an ounce."

UBS: "Gold could retreat to the US$ 1'500-US$ 1'600 per ounce level."

I do not really take notice of broker ratings for stocks etc but I think it is interesting to see so much pessimism for gold this year. Even though I have little faith in price predictions, I recognise the value in giving it some merit. What if they are correct?

Some of the huge gold miners have production costs between $950-1,050 per ounce. So even if gold fell to $1,400 the industry would still be profitable and supply would probably see very little change.

I only brought this up because I follow a lot of well known economists who are very bullish gold and have been for years so you have to be careful that you are not being led by confirmation bias.

What do you guys think?

LRE was last trading at any meaningful period at this price In summer 2016. This is at a more than 5 year low if you exclude very brief price crashes seen in the first lockdown. Why are people still selling. It’s crazy! This has to be one of the best opportunities I have seen for a while

It’s great to see poly holding up well when the rest of the market is a sea of red. This is why we invest in gold right?

I feel everybody's pain that is invested here as I have shares in POLY which has been hammered this week. I am looking very closely at CEY as I think the fact that its mine is in Egypt and that it only has one producing mine means that a lot of investors would consider it too risky which probably means this is the most undervalued UK listed gold producer. I dont expect the price of gold to go anywhere for the remainder of the year now as central banks are not going to make any new big decisions before the end of the year, it has been a very frustrating year for gold investors as we have watched all sorts of assets such as bitcoin and some low quality companies share prices jump whilst our main holdings of gold and gold miners have done very little for months. I am going to have a long think about whether to sell some of my bluechip shares to buy CEY because I think the possibility of this company being severely undervalued is quite high.

Anyway, this video is a great reminder to why we are betting our financial future on this yellow metal: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_l-3vEGy8g

Some other things to think about when we have poor weeks like this:

commodity prices are going nuts causing consumer price inflation, this has happened whilst the dollar has been strong, what will commodity prices do should the dollar fall?

I think the case for $100bbl oil is high. Governments are patting themselves on the back for turning their back on oil and trying to stop funding for the oil industry. The world is not ready to be weaned off oil. Electronic vehicles are a long term answer but we are a long way off. Also all that electronic vehicles are doing is making natural gas the new crude oil because they run on electric that is produced mostly by gas-fired power stations. If and when oil prices go to $100bbl then I see inflation going much higher which will be good for gold

I think my message is keep the faith and think longer term when invested in gold miners. Whilst the share price does not look cheap historically, when you consider the price of gold now and the price of gold when the miners had a lower share price you will see how undervalued the sector is in relation to the price of gold.

Hoping to join you all as CEY shareholders real soon!

On weeks like this week I remind myself of something very important: ‘the market participants and I may be looking at the same stocks but the market participants and I are not looking at the same holding period - that is my edge as an investor’

Good luck all

Well gold was down -1.5% when i left the office. Not the start of the week that I was hoping for. I think the frustration is seeing this get kicked by 5% in a day and not having funds to buy more at cheaper prices. I suppose we have to prepare for £12 again if this really gets ugly but theres no reason why this cannot hold £14 if europe locks down more as I see gold going much higher in that event. Lets see where we are on Friday

well I think that this week is going to be a good week for the miners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCs8HHQYQgM the technicals on this video show some bullish signs for both gold and silver for the coming trading week and makes a good point that if european countries are going back into lockdown then their central banks are hardly going to tighten their stimulus programmes any time soon. This can only be bullish for gold and silver. I do not think that this is the time to sell POLY. Hold on to your shares ladies and gentlemen

POLY is currently at its 200 day moving average so let’s see what happens here. If it breaks above then we could see a lot more upside. If it fails though then I wonder what will happen. Anyone charting POLY on here?

Great to see a strong start to the week here. I see gold going up again this week so I imagine the miners will outperform. I think the Bank of England has another chance to raise interest rates next month but I think they will bottle it again. Is the western economies really that weak that central banks can’t raise rates to 1%?? Or it is more the fact their policies have encouraged high leverage across the board and raising rates will crash the assets that their policies helped to inflate?

yes, I noticed how the miners lagged the price of gold today. It should always be remembered that the spot price of gold looks at the current supply/demand fundamentals but miners look ahead to future gold prices. This might explain why the miners lagged today, the market obviously expects gold to fall back a bit over the medium turn. I am surprised and disappointed that the banks of England did not raise raise rates today. The market priced in a small rate raise which is why we saw the rally in gold today.

I love how inexperienced investors mock gold. As a seasoned investor, I recognise that I am not going to pick the best assets all the time but I can easily buy up assets which are out of favour with the market. Gold is certainly out of favour, especially when cryptocurrencies are performing well

Just saw that POLY has bought Ruskit giving POLY a new project in the Magadan region with >7 tonnes of gold equivalent. The licence at Kegali runs through to 2036. Ruskit was created with Chinese capital but now owned by POLY, a great development if you ask me

I think crypto is like any other investment insofar that it’s great for those who got in early. By the time your hair dresser and cab driver are talking about speculating in it you know it’s no time to start entering the market. My only surprise is that Bitcoin has not crashed yet. Good to see POLY in the blue at the close. Shame it did not manage to go close higher considering gold was up around 0.8% earlier