Member Info for mishmos

jackdawsson, very true about Debenhams in my opinion. It may not be quite the same but i had a salutory lesson in penny shares when i bought into an aim one quite a few years ago. As it started to fall after a nice rise i found no one wanted to take them until they were damned near worthless. Fortunately, it wasn't a huge amount. But watching them tank and nothing i could do to get them sold until......
Far too many of these once great dept stores have been left to decline and have done nothing to retain their core customer much like M&S who pursued the tripe that the media hacks were telling them was the way forward. I am one of the core customers or was and was happy to pay for British made clothes and the once renown quality. Today they are just as crappy as the throw away cheapo stuff that is like the wind.
At least they went for the ready meal aficionado to try and stop the rot. But trying to get funky with the clothes is for the likes of Primark.

But hasn't the vod investor already had all the synergy nonsense it can handle without currently any of the benefits of actually getting a return.
Isn't spend,spend,spend, what got the Northern Rock mortgage holders into dire straits with the 125% LTV. No equity to allow wriggle room when things got difficult.

Mrd, true, but then Sky doesn't naturally have the same number of competitors as vod does and it is very much price sensitive now with pressures from customers and regulators currently. Be interesting how Sky does in a declining market as in reality it is a discretionary spend once out of contract. I know there are plenty who will live in a derelict house before the Sky went andf maybe so for the ubiquitous iphone. The age of the style of substance merchants.
Also Sky was in play for a long time off and on with the battle for dominance with Murdoch's preferred buyer losing out.

TomE, I genuinely admire those who dig their heels in and have the conviction to hold tight. What concerns me is that i read too many reasons why this should or must be higher. It simply doesn't stack up for me but then if I miss out holding cash and will leave me to the ravages of inflation.
I personally feel a cut is necessary but wonder what short term damage that would do as vod seems trapped by its own stance on the divi. The big boys are fickle aside from the trackers and those locked into the warren buffet investment theme.
Can this really bounce so high that it covers the losses and then what happens again ex divi.
It has the makings of a vicious circle where it is trapped in possibly an inevitable prolonged period of stagnation at best.
Even if buys are buoyant will people pay more than they have to now.
As I take no pleasure in hearing people lose money. I would like it to rise and also to reverse the under performance of a decade with solid group returns over a period of years. Not outrageous just solid to underpin an affordable divi.

I recall another genius or should I say firm of geniueses; Arthur Anderson who creative accounting Enron into oblivion. Who absorbed Arthur Anderson? Deloittes. If the only way to b/s the market is to massage the accounts it really is game over. It is done all too often unfortunately.
How do you magic an over generous divi payment from thin air.
The trackers don't care i suppose nor the funds but even they can't hide the capital losses.

Mrd, when you say "they" who are the "they"? There appears without any doubt a general decline across all sectors and the debt issues seem to be coming back to bite backsides now. Maybe it is also market fatigue after the b/s of the post 2008 fiasco. Can vod really buck the current mobile trend and suddenly all of the under performing acquisitions become profit generating. Here's a quote from today "Beleaguered UK department store group Debenhams jumped 20.70% on Thursday as it scrapped its dividend after reporting a full-year loss and said it would close up to 50 of its stores as it continued to grapple with a gloomy retail backdrop.". I know Debenhams is very different from vod but would you forgo the divi for that sort of result?
Even the much hyped FAANGS are getting a dose of reality (not a bad thing in my opinion).
Trade war hype aside this all seems about return and debt to me. You can only run on fumes for so long.
The quality of boards generally is poor and as they all seem to job hop with guarantees there is little in the way of imagination or creativity to drive the share prices across many companies.

Held steady for 10 years? Are you kidding?

Velo, then doesn't that make all the broker nonsense of 220 simply that,nonsense.
Unilever is finding out the hard way that size alone isn't enough.

Mrd, you are cherry picking stocks that are winding you up. BT even with a monopoly couldn't find their backsides with a map and both hands and RM were floating in the U-bend very recently just a flush away from the dog list.
Wanna feel good? Take a gander at Capita when it was not to long ago riding high and imagine you had bought in before the brown stuff hit the fan. Now that has made you cheerier i bet.
You now have a sort of bet on the Nov dates for vod so little you can do except sell or wait and hold. However there is a divi coming so you'll get that regardless.

Tom E, I think you may be right and if he does indeed come good with credible plans or news then it has to be sustainable.
I do wonder though about a divi cut though this time although it would be good for the debt and if there are positives about revenue as well the two might be a good "clearing the decks" for stability.
I like shares that ( used to anyway) trade within certain parameters for people like me to make a fair return without exposing myself to too much risk if it goes south. I made decent for me returns occasionally but got singed a few times as well. Perhaps that's why I'll never be rich in this game.
However it looks like someone's been busy as the sp is heading north still!!!

Mrd, I too hope the sp rises as I'd be very happy at some point to put in again with confidence and currently it is going north again so fingers crossed for you holders.

Can I ask. Suppose that this is the new norm for vod and that very little changes when the great one speaks, what is your fall back position and would you ever come out of the market on the assumption that this is a volatile period full stop and a dodgy time to start dropping money into uncertain shares.

What on earth do you think he can do? And do you then actually believe it. Unless there is some complete and utter volte face in the accounts that is a better kept secret than where a politicians dignity hides then I really can't see what can be announced that is earth shatteringly price altering.Stabilising probably. If the divi is maintained as expected then fine, if the divi is cut then a further serious drop in sp but the divi either way is paid from debt to keep the big boys happy.
The mind boggling outlays for other telecoms has to be a concern unless or until a proper return is seen and not just some b/s accounting anomaly.
I mean you can't go into the shops and say to the assistant " here's my made up accounts, give me a flat screen tv".
Maybe, just maybe this is all a fantastic buying opportunity pre announcement and if so it is quite some ride for the private investors.

Share buy backs are the final straw that a company hasn't got a clue anymore. If a company can't do anymore with its money than try and restrict the number of shares in circulation to manipulate the share price then they are a bag of spanners and shouldn't be in business.

jackdawsson, i really wanted to buy into Barc so many times hoping each time it was going to rise and stay there. I didn't and always thought i was going to miss out. A few times I did,but my comfort zone for potential losses generally,but not always kicks in.
It does currently look a good entry point and if I wasn't so hesitant about markets generally I'd take a punt.

jackdawsson, nothing to excuse. I understand. Really I do,but I honestly don't get the trust in brokers etc. The next time i read an accurate broker recommend that comes true will almost be a first.
I suppose I am thankful that I stuck to my guns on the cynical stance I took on the underlying issues affecting vod. The constant acquisitions without real evidential prospects of sustained growth and not just a flash in the pan offering. The debt underwriting the divi is also what i called a divi trap. It just seemed too many were enthusing on nothing that appeared sustainable except blind faith.
If this rockets though those who need it will have gotten their returns.

Hang on. Who's been screwed? I must have missed the "guaranteed share price and divi payment increase" seminar.
"Shares can rise as well as fall" ring any bells. Maybe that's the issue in not remembering share ownership unless in the insider club is a gamble.
Maybe stop believing the cobblers on forums and accept that there is no free ride. Sorry if that's harsh but if this was rising and you were banking profits and waxing lyrical about how the grin is so wide when you collect the divi it would be a different story.
I'm not angry as I never believed the b/s that was always trotted out as to why to buy, sell, hold, collect the divi........I'm just staggered that people who seem to have money to invest could be so whingy when they take a hit on a gamble.

What do you want the ceo to say? "We bought a pile of non performing and jam tomorrow outfits that combined with a the fact that the regulator has woken up to the rip off that is mobile phone outfits we are debt laden paying out a huge divi that we have to borrow to sustain". Whatever he says he can't win. Making any sort of statement could be seen as weakness. I thought that the "market" didn't like out of season statements.
If you do jump out of the window just make sure it is on the ground floor in case this sp rises.

I genuinely hope that doesn't happen for those who bought in higher.

Isn't part of the problem that vod have been like Viv Nicholson (that's one for people of a certain age) who won the football pools in 1961 and declared "I'm going to spend,spend,spend"! Vod have spent, spent,spent with bugger all by way of significant income except via creative accounting methods under a declining in real terms sp. The costs of running mobile telecoms where everyone is simply nicking each other's customers is under pressure to add to the misery.They are trying to reinvent themselves as something beyond a mobile phone company.
These huge companies are far too big to manage under the umbrella of a single entity. Unilever learnt that recently.