Member Info for MinorMiner

Blended finance

70% Offtake Financing: Funder provides upfront capital in exchange for guaranteed long-term iron ore supply at a fixed or discounted price.

30% Senior Debt or Convertible Loan Funder loan that could be converted into equity later. according to some pre-arranged formula.

Zero% equity dilution

"The London-headquartered business is mainly focusing on West Africa for the next phase of iron ore growth."

Rio Tinto laying off Pilbara staff, while saying that Simandou will improve Pilbara viability by blending up lower grade ore...

Rio began their review of future iron ore products in October, with nothing reported as yet. However everything I read tells me that Rio are in the hunt for more West African high grade.

Zanaga next? I reckon!

Wednesday, 12 February 2025

RIO TINTO CHOPS 120 IN-HOUSE TRADIE JOBS AT ITS WA IRON ORE MINES AND OUTSOURCES THE WORK TO CONTRACTORS

Rio’s WA iron ore arm generated about $8 billion of underlying earnings during the first half of 2024. Its second half results will be released later this month.

But Rio is facing challenges replenishing the supply stream from its iron ore heartland as the quantity and quality of product from the ageing stable of mines dwindles.

WA’s environmental umpire in November recommended the proposed Hope Downs 2 and Brockman Syncline developments be approved, but only if the mining footprints are scaled back.

A month prior, Rio cancelled plans for a new iron ore deposit as part of its Rhodes Ridge expansion. The Anglo-Australian miner said the move would help save a habitat of ghost bats and reduce resource demand on traditional owner groups.

Rio is more than half way through building its majority-owned $3.1b Western Range mine, which is slated to be the next Pilbara cab off the rank this year.

The London-headquartered business is mainly focusing on West Africa for the next phase of iron ore growth.

Rio is spending $US6.2b ($9.8b) to develop its portion of the mammoth Simandou iron ore mine in the West African country of Guinea.

Simandou will export 120mt of high grade iron ore annually, starting from the tail end of this year.

The significant amount of iron ore Simandou is set to inject into the global market has given the project a moniker within the mining industry of ‘Pilbara Killer’, given the region’s current supremacy in supplying the world’s iron ore.

RIO HAS REFUTED THAT SUGGESTION, INSTEAD SAYING SIMANDOU WILL HELP ENABLE THE PILBARA IRON ORE’S CONTINUED VIABILITY BY BLENDING THE LOWER GRADE PILBARA ORE WITH SIMANDOU’S HIGHER GRADE ORE BEFORE THE END PRODUCT IS SOLD TO STEELMAKERS IN CHINA.

https://thewest.com.au/business/mining/rio-tinto-chops-120-in-house-tradie-jobs-at-its-wa-iron-ore-mines-and-outsources-the-work-to-contractors-c-17695614

Extrader - whatever the play might be between Glencore and Trafigura (and perhaps/likely orchestrated by Big Name Strategics with whom both have intimate trading relationships) I do not think ChatGPT will untangle it.

The key takeaway is that Trafigura have relieved Glencore of their problematic loans-for-oil deals with Brazzaville, deals that Strategics would have considered a jeopardy to investing in Zanaga when 43%-owned by Glencore. There could have been any manner of complications and blowback into Zanaga.

Now that risk has gone, the invisible but powerful presence of global Strategics perhaps evidenced, and we now move towards the Big Reveal of Strategic investment.

Feeks - small parcels of shares are being round-tripped by the brokers to make it appear as if we are being sold down. Their aim is to trigger weak hands to sell down onto their bid. It's all baloney.

If you can't objectively assess where we are and then hold for the real new then there's no helping you.

... that any talk of FEED funding via equity is absolute gibberish.

The primary source of FEED funding will be upfront finance from a very determined off taker.

This, I would hazard, is what has caused the discussions between all parties and that has delayed news to us PIs.

...that a late-in-the-day proposal from a potential Strategic Partner caused some serious discussion within the company, between the company and professional advisers, and the company and the leading Strategics.

This could not be resolved last week, the Mining Indaba being a complicating factor. There was hope that something could be got to investors but discussions timed us out last Thursday.

The new deadline is intended to be long enough to allow these discussions to be concluded without further delay.

In short:

Q. MIGHT STRATEGICS, SUCH AS THE LIKES OF RIO TINTO, BAOWU, AND MANARA MINERALS, HAVE DEMANDED THAT GLENCORE SETTLE WITH BRAZZAVILLE BEFORE THEY INVEST IN ZANAGA?

ChatGPT said: It's highly plausible that potential investors like Rio Tinto, Baowu Steel, and Mlanara Minerals may have demanded that Glencore settle its dispute with Brazzaville before committing to Zanaga.

(...)

CONCLUSION: A LIKELY STRATEGIC MOVE

Given the size and complexity of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project, it is highly likely that potential investors—Rio Tinto, Baowu, and Mlanara Minerals—pushed for Glencore’s financial entanglements with Brazzaville to be resolved first. This would reduce risk, improve the investment climate, and pave the way for new capital to flow into the project.

So I ask a blatantly leading question:

Q. MIGHT STRATEGICS, SUCH AS THE LIKES OF RIO TINTO, BAOWU, AND MANARA MINERALS, HAVE DEMANDED THAT GLENCORE SETTLE WITH BRAZZAVILLE BEFORE THEY INVEST IN ZANAGA?

ChatGPT said: It's highly plausible that potential investors like Rio Tinto, Baowu Steel, and Mlanara Minerals may have demanded that Glencore settle its dispute with Brazzaville before committing to Zanaga. Here’s why:

1. DE-RISKING THE INVESTMENT CLIMATE

Major investors prioritize financial and political stability before entering a high-capex project like Zanaga.

A lingering debt dispute between Glencore and Brazzaville could have been seen as a risk factor, making investors hesitant.

If Glencore was seen as financially entangled with the Congolese government, investors may have worried about potential legal complications or unfavorable future state interventions.

2. GLENCORE’S REPUTATION & INVESTOR CONFIDENCE

Baowu Steel, Rio Tinto, and other mining giants have strict governance and compliance policies, especially regarding financial disputes in emerging markets.

A clean exit from the SNPC debt issue would reassure investors that Congo is taking steps toward stability and investment readiness.

Mlanara Minerals, if involved, would likely push for clarity on Glencore’s role before committing to any large-scale investment.

3. PRECEDENT FROM PAST DEALS

Rio Tinto and other global miners have previously required host governments and existing stakeholders to resolve disputes before investing.

For example, major mining investments in Guinea (Simandou Iron Ore Project) were delayed due to unresolved state disputes and corruption concerns.

Similar risk-aversion strategies could apply to Zanaga, requiring Glencore to clear any outstanding liabilities with Brazzaville before investors step in.

4. TRAFIGURA’S ROLE: A COORDINATED EFFORT?

Trafigura stepping in to settle Glencore’s debt might not have been coincidental—it could have been part of a broader effort to facilitate investment in Congo’s resources sector.

If major mining investors had signaled their interest in Zanaga, resolving the oil debt issue could have been a strategic prerequisite.

CONCLUSION: A LIKELY STRATEGIC MOVE

Given the size and complexity of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project, it is highly likely that potential investors—Rio Tinto, Baowu, and Mlanara Minerals—pushed for Glencore’s financial entanglements with Brazzaville to be resolved first. This would reduce risk, improve the investment climate, and pave the way for new capital to flow into the project.

PLEASE ASSESS THE THEORY THAT GLENCORE AND BRAZZAVILLE HAVE DONE A DEAL ON THEIR DEBT-FOR-OIL AS A REQUIRED PRECURSOR BY THE STRATEGIC INVESTORS TO REMOVE A SOURCE OF JEOPARDY WHEN THEY BUY INTO ZANAGA:

ChatGPT said: The theory that Glencore and Brazzaville settled their debt-for-oil arrangement as a necessary step to clear the way for strategic investors to buy into the Zanaga iron ore project is plausible. Here’s an assessment of the key factors supporting and challenging this theory:

SUPPORTING FACTORS

De-Risking the Investment Environment

Strategic investors typically require a stable financial and political environment before committing to large-scale investments.

The dispute between Glencore and the Congolese government over SNPC’s oil debt may have been seen as a financial and reputational risk.

Resolving this issue could reassure potential investors in Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) that Congo’s government is stabilizing its financial commitments.

GLENCORE’S ONGOING EXIT STRATEGY FROM CONGO

Glencore has been gradually divesting from certain Congolese assets, including mining interests.

Settling the SNPC debt could be part of a broader effort to clean up its balance sheet and avoid potential legal or reputational risks that could scare off new investors in projects like Zanaga.

CONGO’S NEED TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT

With oil production declining and the IMF keeping a close watch, Congo is under pressure to diversify revenue streams.

The Zanaga project, if developed, could be a flagship mining investment that provides long-term revenue and employment.

A stable fiscal environment—including resolving outstanding debts—makes it more likely that major investors will commit.

Trafigura’s Role as a Replacement Financier

The fact that Trafigura stepped in to refinance Congo’s oil obligations suggests there was urgency in resolving the Glencore issue.

This could indicate behind-the-scenes pressure from investors who did not want lingering financial disputes affecting new deals.

CONGO’S BROADER FINANCIAL PRESSURES

The SNPC-Glencore settlement could have been driven purely by Congo’s fiscal instability and the need to restructure its oil-backed debts.

The government may have been motivated by IMF pressure rather than specific concerns about the Zanaga project.

CONCLUSION

While there is no direct evidence linking the SNPC-Glencore oil debt settlement to the Zanaga deal, it is likely part of a broader de-risking strategy to improve Congo’s investment climate. Strategic investors may have required financial stability before committing to Zanaga, and resolving outstanding disputes with major players like Glencore would certainly help achieve that goal.

There's a lot more significance to this than is at first apparent:

Glencore and Brazzaville, with the active assistance of Trafigura, have cleared away a hurdle to Strategic Investment in Zanaga:

TRAFIGURA COMES TO RESCUE OF SNPC BY SETTLING GLENCORE DEBT

Published on 10/02/2025 at 05:40 GMT

Brazzaville has obtained pre-financing from Trafigura to settle its debt with Glencore, much to the dismay of international financial institutions.

It was a conflict that kept Glencore and the Congolese state busy for many months, before being quietly settled. Indebted to the tune of several hundred million dollars to the Geneva trader, Brazzaville found a way out of the crisis on 27 December, without anything being mentioned in the media. In the end, another trader accustomed to doing business with Congo, Trafigura, agreed to new pre-financing in exchange for crude cargoes from the Société Nationale des Pétroles du Congo (SNPC).

In what was an unusual move in the oil business, the Congolese state, via SNPC, paid in advance what it owed Glencore. The relationship between the two parties had gradually deteriorated, and negotiations over the terms of the pre-financing were at times tense at the end of last year (AI, 20/12/24). While Glencore considered that relations had improved, the Congolese had a different view and wanted to get rid of this partnership as quickly as possible.

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/02/10/trafigura-comes-to-rescue-of-snpc-by-settling-glencore-debt,110373315-art

I put the following to ChatGPT:

GLOBALLY SIGNIFICANT RESERVE - ZIOC

Picking up on the recent posts into here, and a big thanks to Jiving for his succinct summary of how Zanaga scores v. Simandou, i.e. higher grades (Z at 67.5% blended for DR premium v. S at 65.3% of DSO) and much better IRR (Z at 26.8% - 28.2% v. S at 11%-13% which might be generous).

To this we could add the infrastructure cost comparison, with Simandou costing $16-18bn compared to Zanaga's $700m for a slurry pipe and dewatering facilities. Arise to pick up the tab for port facilities, as per the December RNS.

When it comes to overall size ZIOC themselves call Zanaga a 'Globally Significant Reserve - (see slide 8 in 1 below). Helpfully they present a cheat sheet, compiled from the CRU consultantcy (updated to Q3 2023).

This has Zanaga as the 5th largest global Reserve at 2.07bn tonnes. No.1 is Vale's Carajas at 4.24bn t. However this is where it gets interesting. Zanaga has a Resource of 6.89bn t from which the Reserve is produced.

Research tells me that 50-75% of that Resource could be proved into Reserve confidence by a further drill campaign. At a conservative 50% conversion of Resource to Reserve, the Reserve would become 4.48bn t - making Zanaga the largest globally.

Better still is that the Resource is open along strike (just 25km of 47km drilled so far) and is open at depth (possible 2x as much again as per AT) - (slides 8,9 of 2 below).

Thus Zanaga is potentially GIGANTIC.

This massive potential financial upside to the Reserve (potentially 5x + of our current Stage 2 NPV) is one reason why I don't think we are going to see a buy out in the immediate future. I'm certain that Glencore and our BoD will insist on an extension drill campaign in order to fully and correctly value Zanaga.

Stage 1 is fully costed and proven and hence investable at the current NPV. Stage 2 and into Stage 3 might have to wait a while, but Boy! will it be worth the wait.

1. https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Zanaga-Investor-Presentation-1-Nov-2023-1.pdf

2. https://www.zanagairon.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Announcement_Xstrata_option_exercise.pdf

BOTS_PROJECTS

Posted in: TLOU.L

Posts: 850

Price: 0.625

No Opinion

RE: Still here in the New Year3 Jan 2025 09:26

Brilliant - now we can pop over there and start rubbishing his ramping efforts. As of right now, I know zero about Zioc - never heard of it. But I already know it is full of hope and exciting story and endless potential - the usual baloney MM types peddle to get suckers to invest. Wouldn't surprise me if they have their own Telegram or WhatsApp group to make the suckers feel they are part of something special - all the while the orchestrators are busy to rip the rug from under their feet at some future point.

Cant wait to reacquaint with MM ........

Just a refresher of what the company undertook to do:

"2 Jan 2025

ANNOUNCEMENT OF PLANNED CORPORATE UPDATE AND LONDON INVESTOR EVENT

Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM: ZIOC) is pleased to announce that the Company intends to provide an update to shareholders on the Company's strategic partner process whilst also providing further information on the Zanaga Iron Ore Project's development plans.

As a result of the planned corporate update the Company will be hosting an event in London on Tuesday 11 February 2025 to provide a briefing to its shareholders (the "Investor Event").

More detailed information on the Investor Event will be announced shortly."

100% nibj - yet they didn't.

'Something' has trumped those major announcements, to the extent that they have kept radio silence.

Only a deal fits.

2nd Jan and the company confidently scheduled a 11th February event which to be preceded by 2 major updates, on the Strategic Partner process and Zanaga development plans.

However silence has followed, including on any further details about the event. No explanation, clarification, rescheduling - nothing.

Why? What could have happened in the meantime, after all the event is still on (on the grounds that it hasn't been cancelled or postponed)?

The answer writes itself. That matters have accelerated, to the extent that updates on Strategic Partners and development plans have been overtaken.

We have a deal pending.

By my line of thinking this turn of events is very good news.

That is very interesting indeed - very. Thank you, Marcus.

Monday

For 'Simandou' read 'Zanaga', and any moment now - literally:

Rio Tinto SimFer @RioTintoSimFer

6:57 PM · Feb 5, 2025 ·107 Views

(translated from French)

Gérard Rheinberger, our Managing Director of the Simandou project, participated today, during the Mining Indaba, in a panel dedicated to the global energy transition, highlighting the strategic role of Africa and iron ore in this transformation.

Simandou’s high-quality iron ore, with a purity of over 65%, is crucial to decarbonising steel production and encouraging the development of green steel. Through the Simandou project, we are actively committed to reducing our carbon footprint through the optimisation of equipment design and the integration of renewable energy, in line with Rio Tinto’s carbon neutrality target for 2050.

Guinea has immense potential in renewable energy, opening the way to unique opportunities for sustainable energy development. We are committed to supporting the country’s energy ambitions and promoting responsible mining growth through Simandou.

#RioTinto #Simfer #Simandou

https://x.com/RioTintoSimFer/status/1887214055569695201