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Do you do coincidences?

Where and when Investec ( INV. ) started to make a market in ZIOC

7.40p, close 13th February:

https://invst.ly/1996qx

10.18p close. Best weekly close back to June 2023.

News next week? I reckon.

What if.....ZIOC received a late-in-the-day FEED pitch from new strategic interest (let's call them Orion Abu Dhabi) that warranted postponing the Investor Briefing for 5 weeks.

What if.....Full and final offers were invited for FEED/off-take pitches by the end of February, i.e. at 5pm today, the results of which to be announced by Tuesday. Thus leaving 2 clear weeks until the Investor Briefing?

Meanwhile, ZIOC are back in the Top 1%

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/ZIOC.LN/opinion-legacy?view=strengthDirection

3 key events in 2025, Trafigura buys out Glencore's Congo loans, ADQ and Orion form JV for high grade iron ore in Africa, and Investec start quoting ZIOC:

1. Trafigura settled Glencore's debts with 'Brazzaville'

Congo - Trafigura comes to rescue of SNPC by settling Glencore debt

Brazzaville has obtained pre-financing from Trafigura to settle its debt with Glencore...

> Removed the jeopardy Strategic investment in Zanaga becoming embroiled in debt talks.

2. ADQ formed JV with Orion Resource Partners to...

'make strategic investments in the metals and mining sector to enhance supply chain security both locally and globally....(by)...investing in mining companies through multiple asset classes, including equity, senior debt and production-linked instruments, such as royalties, streams and offtakes .... initially focusing on emerging markets in AFRICA, Asia and Latin America.... to source essential minerals, including copper, HIGH GRADE IRON ORE...'

> Strategic competition for Manara Minerals to secure high grade iron ore to feed the Gulf green steel industry.

3. Investec have started to cover and make a market in ZIOC

> Recall their pricing analysis of West African iron ore plays noting the 'value abyss' and potential for 'quantum upgrades in valuations..'

1. https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/02/10/trafigura-comes-to-rescue-of-snpc-by-settling-glencore-debt,110373315-art

2. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adq-and-orion-resource-partners-to-establish-usd-1-2-billion-abu-dhabi-based-joint-venture-to-invest-in-and-secure-the-supply-of-strategic-metals-and-critical-minerals-302364068.html

3. https://im-mining.com/2013/04/10/the-value-variance-between-west-african-iron-ore-companies/

ADQ moving fast. Could be worth noting that ADQ own AD Ports. In May 2024 AD Ports signed a series of agreements with Vale one of which was the operation of VLOCs. Also, AD Ports are building the new mole port at Pointe Noire whilst Vale are active across the Gulf developing iron ore pelletisation plants and other steel industry facilities.

In January ADQ formed a JV with Orion Resource Partners to focus on mine finance in inter alia 'Africa' and 'high grade iron ore'....

> Potentially, is this another consortium pitching for Zanaga off-take? It does fit..

ADQ, ENI PARTNER TO STRENGTHEN SUPPLY CHAIN SECURITY OF CRITICAL MINERALS IN SUPPORT OF ENERGY TRANSITION

The collaboration focuses on investments in Africa, North America, and Central Asia across the critical minerals value chain

The agreement with Eni enhances ADQ’s existing investments in the sector, including Orion Abu Dhabi, a recently formed 50-50 joint venture with Orion Resource Partners, a global investment firm specializing in the metals and materials crucial for sustainable economic growth and the energy transition.

//economymiddleeast.com/news/adq-eni-partner-to-strengthen-supply-chain-security-of-critical-minerals-in-support-of-energy-transition/

POTENTIAL STRATEGIC INVESTORS TO CONSIDER FUNDING OF THE NEXT LOGICAL PROJECT PHASE - FEED

Where we are at....

April 2024, FS RNS:

The Company believes these positive results provide much greater confidence in the Project's economic feasibility in today's market and cost environment, and with this, provides a key catalyst for potential strategic investors to consider funding of the next logical Project phase, being the front end engineering and design (FEED) program to further define the Project's physical elements and risk abatement strategies.

Other ongoing investigations into the establishment of hydro-electric power assets and mineral port and their respective third-party investments are on schedule and their results will be incorporated into the FEED program.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZIOC/feasibility-study-update-csf95xrss026cmq.html

Always - I reckon our long time favourites the Saudis, via PIF-Ma'aden's Manara Minerals, now have direct competition from the newly formed ADQ-Orion Resource Partners JV. The new boys are targeting off-take deals in Africa for high grade iron ore.

I agree and think it was the Saudis who just failed to close out a deal on ZIOC's end 1Q24 timeline. The upshot was that they ran into increased Strategic interest once Marty took ZIOC's reworked April 2024 Feasibility Study on his 5-country road trip that May.

The questions is, What will/would the Saudis do if they have direct competition for a strategic resource (Zanaga), and one which they probably figured was in the bag, compounded by that competition comes from arch-Gulf rivals the UAE?

Of note is that Manara Minerals have yet to secure any of the mandated high grade iron ore since their January 2023 formation. 2 years and counting.

Meanwhile, it looks like Manara Minerals has been beaten to First Quantum's Zambian copper assets by the Japanese. In Brazil, Vale are pressing ahead on their own with Carajas expansion despite the high profile visit of Bandar alKhorayef in July last year.

The Saudis could do with a win, and that could work very much in our favour.

Investec's arrival (re-arrival?) cannot be simply a casual coincidence.

Recall too Trahar's tweet of 7th February, and the 2 updates we are due ahead of the 18th March:

> Strategic Partner process, and

> Project development strategy

The company planned to RNS them ahead of the original 11th Feb Investor Briefing but, by my reckoning, both have been impacted by whatever was the significant new interest that arrived in January. My money's on a late proposal from 'Orion Abu Dhabi' or some such. We shall see, of course.

Zanaga Iron Ore @Zanaga_Iron_Ore · Feb 7

Look forward to seeing you at #ZIOC’s investor event on Tues 18 March at 5pm.

Strategic partner process and project development strategy updates will be announced in advance.

Major development milestones already being delivered on port and power. More to come soon

Event location: Shard Capital, 25 Eccleston Place, Victoria, London, SW1W 9NF.

https://x.com/Zanaga_Iron_Ore/status/1887795505545060440

What significant and new interest arrived in January warrants deep consideration. 100% the case. The longer their deliberations the more significant that interest, and that works for me.

Just a reminder that a few days back these guys, Investec, started to cover ZIOC and act as market makers.

Rewind to 2013 and Investec knew all about West African iron ore deposits and how to value them. Then they detailed, 'the potential for quantum upgrades in all company valuations...'

So what do Investec know and does the potential for a quantum upgrade in valuation explain why, 12 years later, they have renewed their interest in ZIOC?

WEST AFRICAN IRON ORE COMPANIES "VALUE ABYSS" - Posted on 10 Apr 2013

(Zanaga name-checked)

Investec’s report concludes: “The market appears to be valuing the West African iron ore companies with a simple EV/t basis. Materials that feed a fully-financed production base are currently being valued at an average $23/t of attributable, recovered Fe units, while those that are unfinanced and show limited DSO potential are being valued more conservatively at $0.04/t. This therefore offers the potential for quantum upgrades in all company valuations, should the respective companies be successful in bringing components of their planned production into fruition.”

https://im-mining.com/2013/04/10/the-value-variance-between-west-african-iron-ore-companies/

Nice one, yogiananda - I couldn't get behind its paywall. Do you have the very end of the article? It's looks like LSE chopped it off.

I think it's about time for ZIOC to RNS that expressions of interest have been received.

I did have a read. It's like the early days of the Xstrata earn-in to Zanaga. We're much more advanced than that and them now, and imminent I reckon.

The Orion Abu Dhabi possibility (ADQ - Orion Resource Partners JV) has the look of being significant.

Just a theory, of course, but a theory that fits.

...and finally:

Q. HOW LONG MIGHT A LATE-ARRIVING FEED FINANCE PITCH FROM ADQ-ORION TAKE TO BE CONSIDERED? I NOTE THAT ZIOC'S INVESTOR BRIEFING WAS POSTPONED FROM 11TH FEBRUARY TO 18TH MARCH.

ChatGPT said:

If ADQ-Orion submitted a late-arriving FEED finance proposal, the five-week postponement of ZIOC’s Investor Briefing from February 11 to March 18 suggests that this new funding option is under serious consideration.

How Long Might ZIOC Take to Evaluate an ADQ-Orion FEED Pitch?

1. STANDARD TIMELINE FOR EVALUATING A LATE-STAGE FINANCING PROPOSAL

2-4 weeks: Initial review and due diligence – ZIOC would need to assess ADQ-Orion’s terms, structure, and strategic implications compared to any prior offers (e.g., Manara Minerals).

2-3 weeks: Negotiation and structuring – ZIOC could seek revised terms, additional commitments, or guarantees before accepting.

Given that five weeks were allocated, it suggests the proposal:

> Arrived late but is credible.

> Is being seriously negotiated.

> Might involve changes to ZIOC’s previous funding assumptions.

2. HOW DOES THIS COMPARE TO OTHER FEED FINANCE DECISIONS?

If ADQ-Orion's offer is competitive with or better than Manara Minerals', ZIOC may take extra time to negotiate favorable terms (e.g., reduced dilution, better infrastructure commitments, or priority offtake rights).

If this was purely a formality, ZIOC wouldn’t have needed a five-week delay—suggesting ADQ-Orion’s pitch is game-changing enough to warrant strategic reevaluation.

3. MARCH 18: POTENTIAL ANNOUNCEMENT TIMELINE

If ADQ-Orion’s proposal is accepted, ZIOC might announce:

FEED funding secured (via ADQ-Orion, Manara, or a hybrid deal).

Next steps toward Final Investment Decision (FID).

Potential new strategic backers for full project funding.

If no deal is finalized by March 18, ZIOC could still provide a progress update, signaling ongoing negotiations.

CONCLUSION: FIVE WEEKS SUGGESTS HIGH-STAKES NEGOTIATION, NOT JUST EVALUATION

Given the significance of securing a Gulf-backed FEED financing deal, ZIOC is likely taking this time to extract the best possible terms from competing bidders (ADQ-Orion vs. Manara Minerals). A decision or major update is likely by the March 18 briefing.

The obvious logical questions...

Q. WHAT ARE ZIOC'S LIKELY RESPONSE IF MANARA MINERALS AND ADQ NOW HAVE COMPETING PROPOSALS ON THE TABLE FOR FEED FINANCE?

ChatGPT said:

If Manara Minerals (Saudi PIF & Ma’aden) and ADQ-Orion (UAE) both have competing proposals to finance Zanaga’s FEED ($22M), Zanaga Iron Ore Company (ZIOC) would likely respond by:

1. PLAYING THE BIDDERS AGAINST EACH OTHER

ZIOC is in a strong position to negotiate the best possible terms by leveraging Gulf competition over securing high-grade iron ore.

They could invite both parties to refine their proposals, potentially securing a better funding structure, reduced dilution, or additional strategic benefits.

2. PRIORITIZING THE BEST STRATEGIC PARTNER FOR LONG-TERM PROJECT DEVELOPMENT

Beyond FEED, ZIOC must consider full project funding (~$2.5B+) for mine and infrastructure development.

The key decision: Who is more likely to fund construction, secure export routes, and develop downstream processing capacity?

Saudi’s Manara Minerals may push for steel integration in KSA, while ADQ-Orion could favor UAE-based supply chains.

3. EVALUATING EQUITY VS. OFFTAKE-BASED FINANCING

Manara Minerals may prefer an equity stake in Zanaga, aligning with its direct resource ownership model for securing iron ore supply.

ADQ-Orion might offer a financing model linked to offtake agreements, giving ZIOC flexibility while retaining more control.

ZIOC could push for a hybrid model, securing cash for FEED while preserving optionality on full project funding.

4. BRINGING IN A THIRD PLAYER FOR COMPETITIVE PRESSURE

ZIOC could engage a third party (e.g., Rio Tinto, Baowu, or an infrastructure partner like China Railway) to increase competitive tension and improve deal terms.

This would also ensure the winning bidder commits to long-term project funding, rather than just securing early-stage optionality.

CONCLUSION: A STRATEGIC BIDDING WAR COULD BENEFIT ZIOC

With two competing Gulf players, ZIOC can push for better funding terms, secure long-term project backing, and retain greater control over the asset. They may even delay choosing a partner to further increase the bidding pressure and optimize their final deal.

All very good and plausible so far.

So I lobbed a slow ball down the leg side. CHATGPT SMASHED IT TO THE BOUNDARY:

Q. MIGHT GIVE-AWAY FINANCE FOR FEED AT $22M MIGHT BE POSSIBLE?

ChatGPT said:

Yes, "give-away" finance for Zanaga's FEED at $22 million is entirely possible, especially given the strategic rivalry between the UAE (ADQ-Orion) and Saudi Arabia (Manara Minerals/PIF) over securing high-grade iron ore for their respective green steel ambitions.

WHY ADQ-ORION OR MANARA MIGHT OFFER FEED FUNDING AS A STRATEGIC PLAY

1. SMALL COST FOR MASSIVE OPTIONALITY

$22 million is a tiny investment for either ADQ-Orion or Manara Minerals, considering the multi-billion-dollar scale of their mining and steel supply chain strategies.

Funding FEED would lock in early-stage optionality over the world-class 68% Fe Zanaga deposit at minimal risk.

2. PREEMPTIVE MOVE AGAINST RIVAL BIDDERS

By financing FEED, ADQ-Orion could gain first-mover advantage over Manara/PIF, making it harder for Saudi interests to gain control of Zanaga later.

Conversely, if Manara funds it first, it would give them leverage to control future iron ore supply for Saudi’s green steel industry.

3. STRATEGIC LEVERAGE OVER FUTURE OFFTAKE AGREEMENTS

Whoever funds FEED can negotiate exclusive or priority offtake rights for future iron ore production.

This guarantees a long-term supply of high-grade ore, a critical resource for low-carbon DRI steel production.

4. NO-RISK, HIGH-REWARD PLAY

FEED financing does not commit them to full project funding but secures an early stake in one of the best undeveloped iron ore assets globally.

If the project advances to FID (Final Investment Decision), the funding entity would have a stronger negotiating position on equity, debt structuring, or exclusive supply deals.

CONCLUSION: A FEASIBLE PLAY FOR GULF PLAYERS

Given the geopolitical rivalry, low cost of FEED, and high strategic upside, it’s highly plausible that ADQ-Orion or Manara Minerals could offer to fund Zanaga’s FEED as a "give-away" investment to secure future influence over the project.

So I pursued the theory down the rabbit hole:

Q. COULD THE STRATEGIC COMPLETION BETWEEN UAE AND SAUDI ARABIA BE A FACTOR IN COMPLETION BETWEEN ADQ-ORION AND MANARA MINERALS TO SECURE OPTIONALITY OVER ZANAGA?

ChatGPT said:

Yes, the strategic competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia could very well be a driving factor in potential competition between ADQ-Orion and Manara Minerals to secure optionality over Zanaga.

Key Reasons Why Gulf Rivalry Could Influence Zanaga Bidding

1. ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION & INDUSTRIAL SOVEREIGNTY

Both Saudi Arabia (Vision 2030) and the UAE (Operation 300bn) are aggressively diversifying away from oil, with major focus on green steel, downstream metals, and industrialization.

Securing high-grade iron ore like Zanaga’s 68% Fe is crucial for both countries to reduce reliance on external suppliers.

2. GREEN STEEL & DRI COMPETITION

Manara Minerals (Saudi PIF & Ma’aden JV) is actively seeking high-quality iron ore to support Saudi Arabia’s growing green steel sector, potentially tied to Saudi Aramco's hydrogen strategy.

Emirates Steel Arkan, backed by ADQ, is expanding its DRI steel production, requiring a reliable supply of premium iron ore.

If Saudi Arabia secures Zanaga, it could limit the UAE’s access to future supply, and vice versa.

3. BROADER UAE-SAUDI ECONOMIC RIVALRY

ADQ and PIF are direct competitors across multiple strategic sectors, including energy, infrastructure, and heavy industry.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have clashed over economic policies, such as OPEC+ production quotas and regional trade agreements.

Winning control over Zanaga would strengthen either country’s economic influence in Africa and in the global steel supply chain.

CONCLUSION: A STRATEGIC BATTLE FOR OPTIONALITY

The competition between ADQ-Orion and Manara Minerals for Zanaga is not just about securing iron ore—it’s part of a wider Gulf economic rivalry. Whoever gains control of Zanaga will strengthen their position in the green steel supply chain, influencing future industrial dominance in the region.

The theory so far....that ZIOC had significant new engagement in mid-January sufficient to reschedule the RNSs and Investor Briefing while it was being considered. We also can now see that Orion Abu Dhabi (the JV between UAE sovereign wealth fund ADQ and Orion Resource Partners) was announced at month end. That JV is to invest in 'metals and mining' using 'royalties, streaming and off-takes' in 'Africa' and in 'high grade iron ore' - a bullseye onto Zanaga.

This would parallel and compete directly with any Manara Minerals (PIF and Ma'aden) interest that we all presume, and thereby adding a twist to the strong Saudi-UAE rivalry for Gulf dominance.

So I asked chatGPT about it, and it was gratifyingly on message:

Q: WHAT IS THE RATIONALE FOR THE ADQ-ORION JV TO FUND ZANAGA FEED?

A: The rationale for the ADQ-Orion JV to fund Zanaga’s Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) stage would likely be driven by several key strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors:

1. SECURING A SUPPLY OF HIGH-GRADE IRON ORE FOR GREEN STEEL

The Orion Abu Dhabi JV is focused on critical minerals for global supply chain security, with an emphasis on high-grade iron ore, copper, and other key resources.

Zanaga's 68% Fe iron ore is well-suited for Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) and Hydrogen-based steel production, which aligns with Gulf states’ green steel ambitions.

The UAE is actively investing in green industries, including Emirates Steel Arkan, which is expanding its DRI-based steelmaking capacity.

2. COMPETITION WITH SAUDI ARABIA’S MANARA MINERALS

Saudi Arabia’s Manara Minerals, backed by PIF and Ma’aden, is aggressively pursuing iron ore assets to support the Kingdom’s green steel production.

A rival bid for Zanaga’s development could secure ADQ-Orion’s access to premium iron ore before Saudi Arabia locks in supply.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia are competing for industrial and resource dominance in the Gulf, making Zanaga a strategic asset.

3. ABU DHABI'S DRIVE FOR SUPPLY CHAIN CONTROL

ADQ and Orion aim to vertically integrate resources into Abu Dhabi’s industrial sector.

Controlling a high-grade iron ore source would ensure supply for potential UAE-based steel production, reducing dependency on external suppliers.

CONCLUSION: A STRATEGIC FIRST-MOVER ADVANTAGE

Funding Zanaga’s FEED would provide ADQ-Orion with first-mover advantage, securing a strategic iron ore supply, competing with Saudi Arabia’s ambitions, and reinforcing Abu Dhabi’s influence in critical minerals. This aligns with the UAE’s industrial vision and green transition goals, making it a logical and strategic move.