Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yeah, I mean WHI are hardly in the premier league of brokers! Hopefully if / when the financing / farm out are achieved, and the drilling program is undertaken, Pantheon might attract the attention of a heavy hitting broker. People are certainly justified in applying some caution to the prognostications of house brokers.
Well I don't think Scot126 is trying to tell you that Brokers can control share prices, or that price targets / valuations must be met. investors will do as they please, as you rightly say. Rather that it behoves investors to at least attempt to measure the value (the future profits), else there's no compass at all. Certainly relatively.
Goldstinger, what is it that Farallon have done which is irking you? They're just dribbling out their stake no? Perfectly reasonable for a large shareholder to do that. I note there hasn't been an announcement about them since dropping below 17% on 22 October, so they're hardly smashing the price.
csw12, I hear you, but I suspect any pullback from an equity raise will be small and temporary. Meanwhile if infact it's a value creating farm out, there could be a significant move up in the stock. By no means criticising you for trying to maximise things.
Hey Jlite, good post. I think any of those outcomes are possible. Personally, i don't think the market would mind overly providing $50m for the drilling campaign. It's not a lot of money compared with the market cap of £550m. The stock would trade down a bit, but not much. I think the stronger consensus is that we would prefer, and hopefully get, a value creating farm in. I'm not sure about your 10-20% numbers. Aren't farm ins more typically for like 40%? The big question will be what the terms are and the implied valuation of the acreage.
Honestly, I don't know. Could be either. I think the company knows it would be a straightforward matter to ask shareholders for $50m if it wanted to. It's a small amount of money in comparison to the mkt cap. I think the share price would fall a little if that happened, but not by much. Conversely, they need to think long and hard about the terms of any farm out. How much money, how much drilling, and how much equity.
Well indeed. Obviously time is running short. The mgmt made no bones earlier in the year of saying that last year they hadn't sorted out the financing until November and this year did "not want to leave it so late". So most, myself included, had assumed October at the latest and obviously we've missed that. Still I would expect it shortly.
Yep. I'm pretty comfortable with what Farallon are doing. Its gradual and responsible. Their holding is too large and they should be reducing it. It came about through the Great Bear loans and defaults, so it was inevitable they would gradually sell their security.
Well you know apart from the webinar, and higher oil prices in general, there hasn't been much in the way of real news to justify the move from 50 to 80. Not that my enthusiasm is in any way dimmed! I think a pull back was inevitable. The mkt is now waiting for the equity raise / farm out as the next catalyst.
We won't have to wait long to find out. Every 1% threshold they move through, they have to announce.
Yes i understand that. Mifid II is the bane of my life! I'm not impugning WHI research, I'm just making the point that when the company is paying for the research, there will inevitably be a bit of reticence about people "marking their own homework". With good luck, Pantheon will one day be a large cap, and attract third party research in its own right!
Bang on! People will be naturally a little reticent, since as the note makes clear, it is a "Corporate Sponsored Marketing Communication" i.e. a bit of a self promote. But still, it's hard to argue with the numbers!
Well, I did say "not by much". My point was that on the day itself (when of course we are all in this for much longer term reasons, not a one-day move), a farm in would be taken more favourably than an equity raise.
There's no question the money will be available. At this point, the market is expecting it more likely that the Company will sign a farm in (which, depending on the terms would be a major catalyst for the stock). So if infact they come back for equity, it will be a disappointment and the stock will be down, although not by much, IMHO.
Well, yes. But it is a totally different company now. Still amazes me a Company with 1.9bn bbl resources could be valued at £500m.
Just whether the winter drilling is successful or not.
It could be, but I don't see any new catalysts for the stock now until we get the farm-in / equity raise announcement, which might not be until November.
Ah, PTHRF - it does trade in the US. Closed at 64p equivalent ($0.8845) yesterday. Traded 650k shares Vs Friday 14.6m in London. Volume generally has really picked up the last few days. Has traded > 3m shares already in London this morning.
The stock doesn't trade in the US does it?
So will we get some news this week?