Gordon Stein, CFO of CleanTech Lithium, explains why CTL acquired the 23 Laguna Verde licenses. Watch the video here.
Yes, I was surprised the market did not attach more significance to that. Major positive.
Thanks, Madman. Do you have an estimate of when the Company will be able to communicate the results to the market?
Scot, you're back! Welcome back buddy!
i think it would be most duplicitous of Jay to say "very happy with the potential" and "optimistic of a positive result" if that were the case.
https://discord.com/channels/827703739687239690/1024027306697695312
on Discord
I think you are dead right, Scot. If MW had actually published a report or made some specific allegations, there might be a case for a rebuttal. But people are at liberty to be sceptical at £600m for no reserves and no production if they wish. We need only wait for Alkaid 2, IMHO.
I'm sure as soon as the Company is in a position to say something meaningful about the production test, it will do so.
Oof! What does that mean??
Yes, exactly. Assuming we are right about fungibility, if there were a difference in the prices from 2:30pm to 4:30pm (i.e. whilst London and New York BOTH open), a hedge fund could arbitrage that cap making risk free profits. So say for example, the UK line was trading at 103p as it is right now, and the US line was trading at $1.185 / 106p (where it closed on Friday), the arb could buy the UK line, short the US line, making a 3p profit, and then change his UK stock into PTHRF and deliver against his short, so that he no longer has either share. This only works whilst both markets are open, so from 8am to 2:30pm, whilst UK MMs would be aware of the US close, they would largely ignore it. And similarly after 4:30pm, the US line will continue to trade until 4pm NY time (9pm London) "untethered" to the UK line.
I think it must be fungible since if it were not, it would be a very unnattractive security.
I don't know for sure. I know that in the general case., ADRs are fungible (you can create or dismember them at the sponsoring bank). I cannot say for certain if that is the case with this OTC listing. I am assuming it is because both securities have the same ISIN.
The UK and US lines are, I believe fungible. They have the same ISIN which is to say they are the same security, but traded on two markets. This means that any descrepancy can be arbitraged and thus the two have to trade in line with each other. However, the arbitrage is only possible whilst both markets are open simultaneously i.e. 2:30pm - 4:30pm.
Great RNS and stock is down! I give up!
Indeed dhb. Success at one micro location does not allow you to declare commerciality of the entire formation. However it would allow the company to say that at least SOME of the oil is commercial and that is a big step.
My tuppence on this which I’ve said before is that if Alkaid 2 is successful, I cannot see how the mkt can realistically value the 2.3bn bbl recoverable at least than $1 each and that’s about 260p.
Morning, Scot. Does this announcement about the flaring etc actually mean anything?
Caesar, hard to put a precise number on that and almost regardless of how far up the commerciality curve favourable results would push us, share prices have a degree of inertia and there is only so far they can move in the short term.
My personal view is that if the flow test at Alkaid 2 is successful then the market cannot reasonably value the recoverable barrels at less than $1 each. That would give you a value of $2.3bn, or about 260p / share. I can easily argue for multiples of that.
Conversely if it fails I am guessing stock down 50%.
The funny thing about this it seems to me, is they’ve composed an entire 5 page press release just to tell us they’ve decided where to drill!
I think as a practical matter, given the trucks that would be needed to carry the oil to pump station 1, and the number of contractors on site who would know how much oil is flowing, the Company would have no serious prospect of keeping the results secret. Ergo, they will announce them as soon as they know.
I must say CharlotteB I think the way a lot of people speak to you on here is unfair and too aggressive. You speak your mind and offer good reasoning and logic. You've also been dead right on a number of calls lately. Some people are too delicate about stating the cons of the investment case. It isn't heresy to point out the risks or say you expect a decline. Stocks do go down as well as up!!
Anyway, fingers crossed for Alkaid 2. My personal view is that success will see stock double, and failure will see it half. That kind of order of magnitude.