Member Info for Mikjjo

Thanks very much for the response casapinos.

I'll no doubt have a few more questions once I dig deeper. I have a few, what I consider to be sound funds that I go into, mostly through Baillie Gifford but sold out in October due to market fears. Fixed income is an area I've never been involved in before but it's increasingly looking that I should have a decent weighting going forward.

casapinos

You mentioned earlier that part of your portfolio was in fixed interest assets. I have been sitting on cash since mid October and have started to consider putting it toward fixed interest until the market volatility blows over but at first glance it looks even more complicated than delving into equities. I have briefly checked out retail bonds, gilts, etc. via ORB in the London Stock Exchange but where to begin, am I missing something obvious?

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/faroe-petroleum-shares-takeover-dno-13802088

A small window into what ‘could’ unfold here. Faroe being a company much admired by Dr Trice.

Exactly, re low volumes - which is why the massive rallies in the US can be attributed to the PPT imo. Why do they want to prop up a free market?- because it is very near bear territory and they want to give the illusion of confidence imo.

No doubt algos exaggerate the moves but PPT at work imo. Easy during low volume days.

Plenty of articles out there explaining who, why & when.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamsarhan/2018/12/27/mnuchin-calls-plunge-protection-team-stocks-soar-one-day-later/#834bd8870dd9

Good post Biffa, there’s not much there I disagree with. The purpose of my post yesterday was to focus the mind on external events. Wellwell and Nigwit have quite rightly at times covered risks associated with HUR (although maybe wellwell has labored the point) but other than the AS slug of equity and warrants, the biggest single determining factor that has moved this SP is the oil price. Who would have thought that a murder in an embassy in Istanbul would have resulted in such a ‘paper’ loss for HUR holders?

I have every confidence in HUR and remain fully invested for the long run but Macro events (volcanoes apart), PoO and the wider market must be part of the risk analysis at least to understand why the SP moves as it does, which is why the G20 and OPEC meetings should have more than a passing interest to us HUR holders. imo.

The Putin & MBS handshake was quite significant, everything is staged at that level and gestures like that shouldn’t be underestimated.
Trump has MBS by the short & curlies over Khashoggi. China & Russia want Saudi to abandon the petrodollar in exchange for CYN (at this stage). An alliance between China/Russia and Saudi has serious implications for USA. However, China wants cheap oil as the main importer, Russia & Saudi need it higher as big exporters. Trump wants it cheap, presumably to fight inflation.

America appears to be clinging to its empire and with Trump shooting from the hip, using the dollar hegemony as a financial weapon, (although backing off in Iran’s case), China are digging in for the long game. The G20 & OPEC meetings will be fascinating and will determine the trajectory of oil in the near term.

If I was a betting man – Saudi, “You want oil lower”? OK, down to the 30’s we go!! Byebye shale, Hello China / Russia.

Just my opinions of course.

http://pgc.lyellcollection.org/content/8/1/385

Although R Trice is a collaborator, there is plenty of in depth reading material on FB. Not as a sales pitch but a serious piece of literature for the geological society.

As far as I can tell, Hur can’t qualify for a premium listing due to shortcomings of the UK Corporate Governance code 2016. Their AR was presented in line with the code but -

a) The lack of NED’s is non compliant….On 18 December 2017 the two non-executive directors concerned forfeited their share options for nil consideration, so as to be deemed fully independent under the Code……It is anticipated that full compliance with these Code provisions will be attained later in the 2018 financial year.

b) The re-election by share holders of directors under an annual re-election process, currently a 3 year rotation is also a non compliant. However - The Board believes that this is in the best interests of the Company and shareholders at this critical stage of the Company’s strategy to provide an element of stability and continuity.

It looks very much to me that getting the EPS over the line is the main focus in light of point b) and I would imagine a change in that area will come sometime in 2019, perhaps the AGM. The NED’s should be in place by April 2019.

Revenue earning track record does not apply to a mineral company that applies for the admission of its equity shares to a premium listing.

Straycat

What else has changed apart from us moving yet closer to completion

..........

The price of oil !!

Check the date oil started its drop and check the date Hur did likewise. Both charts look identical to me.

DSPP

My personal guess is that very little is needed to enable increase from 30k bopd to 40k, but the things that I would point at are the metering.

…………

My reading of the ES statement is that there is no test separator and multiphase flow meters will be used, therefore, Lincoln could either be configured with its own Multiphase flowmeter or bypasses installed to allow each well to have test runs through the meters. – “The turret mooring system......... will also include a mooring monitoring system,instrumentation to control the wells, modifications to allow pigging of flowlines, chemical injections facilities, emergency shutdown systems, and multiphase flowmeters.

It also looks like one separator train. – “ the incoming crude will be heated from its anticipated arrival temperature of 37°C to approximately 65°C before entry to the high pressure (HP) separator. The FPSO is equipped with two inter stage heaters and, once separated, the crude will be routed to these to be heated further. The heated crude will then be routed to a three-phase medium pressure (MP) separator for further stabilisation, where the water-in-oil content will be further reduced, before passing to the low pressure (LP) separator. “ I wouldn’t imagine there be 2xHP, 2xMP, 2xLP seps.

Power – “produced gas will be used to power the FPSO where possible..., a new fuel gas compressor will be fitted to compress and condition the gas prior to use” “The compressor package will be sized to meet the peak fuel gas consumption of the FPSO during the Lancaster EPS phase.”

As you say there is no process schematic to confirm but also no mention of a test separator in the ES which is comprehensive in many aspects.

I too have a spread bet account with IG and was going to 'short' Hur last month, as my reading of the TA, the anticipated retrace of oil price and the general market 'risk off' was clearly (to me at least) pointing to a downtrend in Hur. I have a substantial holding here for the long term and was looking to 'hedge' against any drop. I have no beef with any hedge fund protecting their position.
Incidentally when a pi decides to sell, they do so for a variety of reasons - target price, need the money, market jitters, re-balance etc That is no different from CA et al, other than the fact they do it with a clear set out strategy and execute with a cold head imo.

HTL

I missed your post of last week but have since caught up.

Best wishes, keep up the fight and get well soon.

Mikjjo

Hi casapinos, thanks for the response. I agree with your market view and have acted accordingly myself, although I still hold HUR due to the project stage but again agree that the re-rate will come sometime after FOIL.

LC, more fool you if you choose to ignore a poster with a great deal of experience, he has posted wise words over the years and it pays to listen to differing views from your own imo.

Good post casapinos, a lot of sound advice in there.

Do you have a current view on the wider market, as it feels a bit “toppy” to me, with plenty of macro and geopolitical risks brewing? I fear a steep correction in the offing and have de-risked some of my long-term winners so as not to give back the gains. Does the wider market cycle come into your decision-making?

Agreed wellwell, both Rolvsnes, Alta and Rona are not directly similar but as far as I've read on the Lundin discoveries, the fractured element and not being sandstone allies them together a touch, increasing confidence in the unconventional - karstified and fractured carbonate reservoir being a first on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

A combination of Lundin's EWT on FB, Total's recent gas discovery WOS, PoO and imminent AM departure all adding to the confidence I reckon.

WT

I don’t usually go in for the personal diatribes often displayed here but I will make an exception in this case.

What a plank!!

There is no doubt the Spirit deal has moved the goalposts, not just in terms of GLA drilling but a few extra tie-in points to accommodate the GWA well and debottleneck works could account for the AM delay, whilst still very much in the H1 2019 window for FOIL as guided. If that’s the case then upgrades and tie-ins can be carried out on station & online with minimal downtime if any.

As for the lunch comment, well………