“Jubilee establishes a refining presence at both its Sable Refinery in the South as well as at Kitwe in the North to better serve all of its secured copper & cobalt tailings projects - targeting a combined refining “capacity of 31 000 tonnes of copper units per annum”.
Just lifted this from the MOU for the Mopani Plant. Im now wondering if this is what they mean by capacity for 3 modules. I initially thought it was enough infrastructure at Roan, but i now think it's refining capacity. If you allow 10kt for Roan and 3 modules at 7kt you reach the max processing capacity of Sable and Mopani at 31kt. The MOU rns states they plan to beat their target of 25kt and now all is starting to make sense. In theory with Mopani only needing a make over and only one more module required to complete the 31kt capacity, this could all happen very quick. Funding more modules and Chimbishi! What is your thoughts Seis and everyone? Sounds plausible?
Morning Jonah, Just scaled up the figure in the quarterly report. If a 20k tonne per month module is expected to produce the equivalent of 3k tonnes per annum. Would it be fair to assume a 50k tonne per month module would produce 7k cathode equivalent? Have i missed the point here?
Looks like some seriously chunky buys, yesterday evening! @ Got Real. We didnt really discuss the IP situation and this was bought up in the meeting. Im not really sure of the laws around IP and the protection there of, but Jubilee certainly have some very important formulas and recipes to produce the copper. Physics and chemistry play a very important part. There is no magic machine. Which they have confirmed in a recent RNS with an 80% recovery rate, beyond their own expectations! Ollie was very proud of this and the IP Jubilee have. He stated the best way they can protect their IP is to use it quick and corner the market, just like they have achieved in chrome. They have first mover advantage and it would appear their technical ability is way ahead of the pack and they plan to waste no time in cornering the market. He compared this very well to the chrome market, with Jubilee about to commence their ninth chrome module. He made no hesitation of their desire to replicate this in copper , corner the market in Zambia, which is a huge market to say the least and even the Congo was mentioned. As previously stated in several recollections up to 20 copper modules was mentioned. Personally i think this could be the tip of the ice berg! The chrome business is living proof of Leon and Jubilee's desire and in my view we have a great chairman to back him up. ( We can discuss Ollie in another chat ). Their desire is clearly to be number one in the chrome world and it looks like they will achieve this in the next 12-18 months with circa 1.7M tonnes per annum inbound already on the cards. But clearly they feel their best way to protect their IP is to corner the market and they are wasting no time now. Roan is being adapted to take different feed stocks and the first module is nearly complete, leading to 17K tonnes per annum capacity in the next few weeks. The next module is already on order which will increase capacity to 24k tonnes per annum. Its going to be a race between copper and chrome, but lets face it were all here for the copper. Everyone understands the potential for copper over the next decade and it looks like Jubilee are going to be a very important part of that.
Https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-october-copper-imports-hit-10-month-high-as-inventories-fall
The beauty of the module approach is one at a time. Pay as you go! The first one has been purchased and is currently being installed, expected to be finished in the New Year. That will then add to incomes, helping install the second one now on order. Such a great strategy from the board! Pay as you build. One module at a time, but each complete installation just increases capacity and earnings. Simply genius from Leon & co!! Rinse and repeat! They are about to install the 9th chrome module and on the cusp of being the biggest chrome producers in the world. Now its the turn of copper!
Raider, they were very enthused or excited about what they termed rocks! My understanding, this comes from waste or run of mine and is naturally higher in copper content because it hasnt been previously processed. It was deemed as not possible by the industry or not viable. They have cracked it under the new process and its everywhere, multiplying by the day. Im sure the others can add to this as im technically useless! After the upgrades they are very confident Roan will be efficient. With roan producing 8-10 k tonnes annually and the new module circa 7k tonnes! Thats 17k tonnes potential, more than sable can process. With 1k tonnes already on the board, my feeling is 6k is very light when you include copper sold direct to market. The second module may even come live increasing annual capacity by a further 7 tonnes. Copper is now happening and happening very fast. The view regarding PGM’s was very much an industry on its knees with heavy casualties likely to take place over the coming months. This will severely restrict supply.
Additionally the chairman was firmly in charge, filling me with confidence for his job ahead.
Would just like to endorse Northerns post and express my thanks to the shareholder's present for their insights and thoughts. A very enjoyable day. I particularly found this event very reassuring and enlightening. Some additional points that stood out to me.
1) a module is simply a condenser. Can be deployed anywhere and be self sufficient, ie no electricity required. Feed goes into the module and comes out condensed either at 8% or 20% contained copper. 8% goes to Sable to be made into copper. 20% is sold into market as is.
2) Roan had problems processing different feed stuffs. Currently being sorted and will increase volumes.
3) One module being fitted at Roan at present, with snother one on order.
4) Reading between the lines, Mopani MOU will likely be first additional refinery used.
5) capacity at Roan will be considerably enhanced in the New Year with Roan upgraded and the new module coming on line. I am thinking the 6k tonne target for the year is very light.
6) The new chrome option at Thutse likely to start construction in 5-6 weeks.
7)whilst the Eastern Limb PGM plant is on review, the chrome plant likely to proceed. Additional chrome contracts planned.
I get the feeling Leon is trying to roll out modules as fast as they can pay for them. The capacity for copper is going to increase considerably in the New Year with the Roan upgrade and the new module. This in turn will allow the roll out of new modules even faster. 15-20 was mentioned! The meeting was generally in good spirits, with several shareholders complaining about comms. I come away from the meeting, reinvigorated, fully realising while i have been here many many years! Great to meet many of the posters here and over there, a real nice bunch, who i feel will be heavily rewarded soon. I just now love that word module!
BB2, i hope to be there at 9.30-9.45.
Sumo, regular updates on Roan could change this! The market needs to be kept abreast . The board owe us this must respect. It appears to me, there are several different upgrades/ modules/ extensions going on at Roan. Im assuming this is why there were so many different dates of works, disruption given, to align for each job! Why not keep us up to date with the progress and as matters complete and ramp up. If theres a delay and change needed, better we know than kept in the dark for years! Let us know when they start the chrome extension, is it now, is it next week, next month? Let us know how its proceeding! If they have a record month of production let us know. Samples were sent to Australia for testing a long while ago, let us know the result. If theres good news, give it to us and the share price will start to respond and people will believe in the company again. I could not believe we found out about the last chrome addition after it had been built! With a little care and attention they can make this share great again, its all under the bonnet, they just need to snuff out Bushey and his gang of reprobates!
Edzi, dont worry, my main purpose in attending is to highlight this very point. We all know, Jubilee cannot control metal prices and that has been the main problem here. But and its a big but, the communication and promotion of the company has been woeful at best. People do not understand what they are achieving, theres no meaningful updates other than the bare minimum, they feel they can get away with. The last RNS, in my view should have been spread across 3 or 4 RNS's, with more detail about each subject. Messages get lost in overpowering volumes. The company is sound and the prospects are off the wall and im pretty sure in 2/3 years, the numbers will be doing all the talking and the share price will be absolute multiples of the current share price, but in the meantime we need the board to do the talking and they are just not doing this to a good enough standard. Leon is building a fantastic company, developing great relationships in Zambia, but someone needs to get a grip of the promotion. By this, i mean the simplest form of promotion, the humble RNS. They are just not making use of all the good things happenings! Positive test results should be a fab RNS! Chrome should have its own RNS, copper should have its own RNS, the same for PGM's. Quarterlies should have figures and EDITDA. Updates should be separate from the quarterlies! In my mind, with what they have under the bonnet, the should price should have been back rising over the last 6-8 weeks! On a separate note, it looks like the Fed, may have called a halt on rate rises. This must help weaken the dollar and strengthen metal prices.
Dorf, it is now clear, the bottom for earnings was first half full year 23. Second half full year 23, showed a considerable increase in earnings and from the evidence yesterday we are going to see another tidy increase first half 24. As earnings are slowly building now, the Northern Project is gathering momentum, with capacity for 3 x 50k copper modules, which from the interview yesterday 2 are well under construction. Despite the company spin being well below par, matters on the ground are progressing well and copper is about to hit us in the face. Shareholders are sleep walking into this. Sable will soon be at full tilt, first quarter next year! With excess material being sold into the market. It would appear a stage by stage, module by module approach is being undertaken, which should avoid the need for an equity raise. Allowing fairly substantial copper earnings to flow from Sable shortly. Matters on the ground are now definitely making progress and largely unnoticed by the crowd. They will all of a sudden catch people unaware.
So many good points taken down yesterday, caught in the mix with the loony brigade, but i think the basket price rising did not get a mention. has the basket price bottomed? Increased from $976 to $1031. This may not seem a lot, but spread over 42K oz, where there is no joint venture for production makes a difference. Small increases on the basket price from quarter to quarter would be most welcome and very powerful, when combined with the new chrome contracts.
Hi Edzi,
Unfortunately, i cannot see any private chat facility!
@ Northern, hope to get there, but may be a few mins late. Presume it will be the nearest Cafe Nero to the venue? @ CG, great piece of work, i note you are being conservative, i just hope very conservative. I have a sneaky suspicion the EBITDA may surprise to the upside, continuing the uptick from the second half last year. I am just very surprised the board are making the market wait, in fact i am shocked the board are making the market wait. Its almost like they are encouraging the sell your granny mob, to have a field day. They are on the back foot with the share price and continuing to mess up the reporting function, so important for investor confidence!
Hi Edzi,
I keep wondering the same questions as you. I do feel the current situation has been exacerbated by the non disclosure earlier in the year. This loss of trust is over shadowing all the good work being done on the ground. Fundamentally, apart from the price of PGM,s everything is sounding great. Every tipster and their auntie are predicting good things. Berenberg and Cannacord will have direct links to Jubilee and are predicting substantial increases in the share price. I take my biggest comfort from the increase in holdings from Slater and Fidelity. If there was any issue going forward there is no way on earth they would have increased their holdings. They have constant communication with the board, simple as that. There has been a major slippage of time on the copper front, caused by all sorts of issues, from Covid to infrastructure problems, which coupled with the earlier disclosure problems are now weighing heavy. But it does look the company are now on top of these and matters are going to be reversed. In the meantime i was hoping Jubilee were going to bust a gut to report to the market after earlier issues. The market does not like the unknown and Jubilee are masters of creating the unknown. The market needs quarterly figures to reinforce the upward trend from the second half of last year and calm nerves. Time for action. Dorf is very right and the board need to get reporting hat on. My hope is an RNS lands tomorrow.
Morning all, i cant understand why they haven't announced a timeline for reporting as intimated. This would create certainty and appease shareholders, create some goodwill before the quarterly's arrive. They just dont learn! Charles made a very good point, that too many subjects are crammed into one RNS, when they should be spread over several RNS's, allowing for more detail and understanding of the subject matter. It is now time for the board to take PI's seriously and afford them some respect. Issue a schedule of reporting RNS. This is a big and important point and shouldn't just be muddled in with other subjects. Its time to get your act together and start listening to your shareholders and build value and trust into the share price.
Will be more than happy to, although it sounds like many are attending and i would expect lots of feedback on here. I am expecting the quarterly figures between now and then. Hopefully they will start to turn the mood, otherwise could turn into an inquisition rather than an AGM!
Charles, at 86, you are anything but GaGa! @ Sumo, Sharky, Edzi & Charles. If there is no quarterly release before the AGM and release of a time line for future quarterly updates. I would expect the AGM to be fairly uncomfortable for the residing directors. I am anticipating a large turnout of shareholders. Hopefully, full quarterly reporting will be unveiled shortly, along with a time line for future releases, highlighting much improved comms and clarity.
Dorf- they need to release the time line for reporting that Leon referred to. There would be no issues then, everyone would know exactly what date to expect results.
Chunky 400K buy this morning, continuing the trend of large buys. So, Leon is about to conduct an interview with the roast boys! This smells of news to me, just couldn't work out if it will be this week or next from the wording. Soon anyway.