Member Info for MikG

Sedaka, some will just bury their head in the sand and say whatever they think it takes to prevent others selling and risk impacting their holding. If you really believe in the share or the project, you have no qualms saying it how you think it is. The bottom line is, since end of July this has fallen from a 47.25 close at July 30, to the current price of 33. It has been down EVERY session in that period, with not one up day. Even today, we've barely mustered a 1p rise (after the extent of that drop), and already that is becoming under pressure as 33p sells are coming back in. Do I think this normal profit taking? No. Even if the worst happens and there is a Ganfeng issue -which is what seems probable to me based on this price action- I still believe in the project and will continue to hold as true value will eventually out. And it cannot sustain NPV of assets in the billions, on this type of market cap, forever. It might just involve more setbacks before we see it.

"If the volume is poor then how can someone know something?"

Islandgirl, you seem transfixed on playing the man and not the ball. Why would there be volume if someone knew something? As I'm sure you are well aware through what I imagine is your vast city/corporate experience, all news has to go to brokers/nomads for review, wording, approval etc prior to release. On AIM, this creates slippages. Are they picking up the phone to tell M&G to dump.. of course not.

What is clear is that its dropping like a stone, and still not one institution wants to go near it to buy the dip. For a company with projects NAV in excess of about 20/30 x the current market cap, doesn't that seem a little odd? Maybe Ganfeng walking it down to buy the whole thing on the cheap? At this rate, it wouldn't cost much to take the lot. The only thing I know is mid 50s to low 30s on zero negative news is very odd for a company that on paper is so undervalued.

Maybe, how would I know? I have no idea if it is an II dropping stock, or the way the market makers are working it - who knows what it could be. The volume is pitiful which makes it all the more suspicious. Not even Friday was an exceptionally high volume day to warrant a nearly 12%.. chart wise this would look like a massive headfake down on low volume if the Ganfeng confirmation were to come through, or the company were to release something remotely positive having created uncertainty over the now 3-pronged approval process.

Capitulation selling continues, and people seemingly desperate to exit (again, taking below the bid to sell, just like on Friday). Anyone who talks of panic Friday is wrong - there is no panic - it has been orderly selling for the best part of a month, and has seen price drop from 56 to now 34 (and falling aggressively). If that does not create cause for concern for some, then good luck to you, but all uptrends and positive signs have now broken, as this has been a pretty spectacular collapse. I remain my view that someone knows something adverse, and only a positive Ganfeng update would change that theory.

It seems like there’s a lot of tension on the ground, and the circumstances leading to the shut down are very sad. From the ASO perspective, coupled with the NL shut down, it’s another unfortunate disruption. However, like the NL closure, it’s hard to imagine the closure being a prolonged move. These workers are now on a contracted basis, meaning no work = no pay, and I would imagine they’d be eager to return to work as soon as possible. Perhaps as well as cost savings, management was already having issues with the labour force, hence the transition to the contractual basis.

What is this realistically being priced for? I mean even at a downgraded 180k oz produced of gold, now at $1,500oz, this is being priced lighter than some junior exploration companies who have nothing but a pipe dream of ever producing. I’d love to know the rationale of anyone who thinks that a retest of the lows is just with that production level, and now enhanced reserves, in spite of the seeming problem after problem. All IMO.

People happy to sell at any price has little to do with MMs - they do not seem to want stock, hence giving around 1p less than the bid price for size (£18k really shouldn't be called size for a £50m odd market cap). That's what made me think something negative had been lodged, and judging by the price action it won't be surprising to see a late Friday or after hours RNS.

There is no intention to scare, just reality. If you cannot see full ask buying at 38, then 37.5, then 37 all while no visible sells, you are missing what is in front of you. If you do not think this has been in a range with 40 or so at the low end of it, and that range now snapped, again more power to you. Clearly number of posts on LSE bears no resemblance to real world investing experience.

This could all change in a minute with a positive Ganfeng release - it has been a perpetual drip since investors were expecting a positive agreement release, and got let down with the goalposts moved. AIM is as much about investor communication as anything - particularly when a share like this can go down 10% with apparently more buys than sells.

Sedaka, you are right to feel uneasy. This share has been trashed every day since the end of July, has breached what seemed to be a range (low 40s) and is gaining selling traction every session. This is also AIM, so there is often no smoke without fire and this sort of capitulation would normally suggest that someone is well aware of something adverse waiting in the wings. Not reassuring I'm sure, but simple facts.

Beer money for the lads at the helm of KDNC (the 100k). Really can't wait for them just to p*ss off, load the coffers for lots of wages and admin expenses, and allow this to have a chance to get back up where it belongs by transfer of ownership to a more supportive shareholder base.

We are not the only ones. Investors on twitter seemingly had enough and venting to the company too

'#ASO @ASOResources 9% down while #GOLD is up $35 (2.36%) to $1,510, 6 year highs. And you still don't have one Board Member who will dip their hands in their pockets & buy some shares. Gluttonous, odious excuses for Directors like this are the reason AIM has such a bad name.'

https://twitter.com/WynningTrader

I don't know tbh. It had hardly got stretched as it was still some way off where it has sat for the past 1-2 years. The surge in the gold price should have provided some ammo. The little flourish in ramping activity a few days back has left some PIs desperate to get out at any price (hence selling under the bid) to go chase the next ramp, but it really is a mystery that more attention isn't coming here with gold now hitting 6 year highs and hitting nearly $1,500oz. Quite remarkable divergence.

At this price of gold, were they to hedge the price, would the funding shortfall not be evaporated? It makes no sense for this to be showing negative correlation with the price of gold, given how significantly leveraged it is to the prices.

Being completely run into the ground. Severely needs to be bought out to be put into more capable hands.

I don't understand the question. There is zero correlation between these two events. The Directors bought in presumably because they see tremendous value at these levels, or the levels they purchased at, and know the Co to be substantially undervalued. The directors cannot be faulted - any BoD that has the skin in the game akin to these guys should be commended - they are an example to many holding similar roles across AIM.

Berenbergs MO has zero to do with the Directors, nor was it ever my implication that it did, apart from potentially some naivety in bringing the most aggressive sell side MM on AIM onto the book.

Of course. Sells (of note) all tied in with the RNS of June 12 and the appointment of Berenberg as joint broker. For anyone uninitated, this will mean substantial forward selling and an inevitable placing at a much lower level (at which those who have forward sold will take allocation, and cover at healthy profits). Any company willingly bringing them onboard is extremely naive, or plain desperate to place (they will always get a good placing off, as based on the MO above the cover will be needed). Horrid market makers, but very effective for their clients with that destructive business model.

Would be more impressive if Melody were on there to take a slice of the early adopters pie..

Absolutely agree. Those advocating salary cuts, payments in lieu through shares etc need to remember where they are invested. This is AIM; not FTSE100 or 250. There is far less accountability, questionable levels of fiduciary duty by those appointed to do so, and more often than not. BODs with wildly different intentions. That is what I meant by "naive and simplistic" to expect salaries to move in line with share price performance. At a 250 company, during times of distress, I would absolutely expect it. On AIM, no chance.

Absolitely agree @thefierce1.

The increase in salaries might not appear just on the face value of the share price performance; but this is AIM, the ultimate model of market inefficiency.Plus comparing salaries to share price performance is a naieve and simplistic view. You need to pay more to retain key personnel and the whilst the current BOD are delivering the likes of Sprott to the shareholder register, and making strides in proving up MTRs vast catalogue of unproven assets, it is difficult to argue for a change to the status quo. Key relationshios could be lost, and progress could be reversed. All to save potentially a couple hundred k per annnum (immaterial in terms of long term value IMO).

That it's trading at a discount to NAV only reaffirms the buy case. This has often traded at a vast premium to NAV, 75-100% due to the inability of the NAV to capture the inherent value in MTRs largest projects upon realisation of value. As such, carrying value in the NAV is dramatically lower than real world value. Position accordingly IMO.

@Robidicus re advertising:

They seem to be very concentrated with their approach on advertising. If you remember around the festive season, they blew their wad on the likes of Wiz Khalifa, Jonah Hill, Adam Levine etc and Melody got a piggy back off that massive spend. I suspect they are relying on industry buzz to carry early sales and might bring out the promotional big guns as and well sales dictate. And there will be the big budget for any ad campaigns as and when they are deemed necessary.