focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
I wouldn't compare much to back in 2009/2010. They were drilling at this time when the share price hit just over £2, shares in issue were at 139m. The share price at 38p last February was factoring in a farm-in partner and shares in issue were at 287m. However, we are massively undervalued when you review the current position and market capital.
I've factored in 25 days for casing and cementing. However I believe we will complete 144m of drilling a day. Worth noting the casing process will take place at multiple zones before drilling can commence. I agree mind we're at turbidite depth. Onwards to the first main target. RNS due soon.
2 main targets with 3 additional stacked pay zones. The shallow turbidite is roughly 900m (given the chart provided in the presentation is realistic) the second at 1200m. Taking a conservative 6m/h drill speed, resulting in 144m per day (most drilling operations are 24-7) I would expect this target has been met and we are onwards to the first main target zone 1300m to 1500m. 50 days were quoted last year therefore I'm considering the additional 20 days as some form of contingency. This leaves 26 to 28 days for casing and cementing at the multiple zones. Tubing 5 targets at a conservative 5 days each providing substantial time for the cement to cure. We're 14 days on therefore my personal opinion is that we have drilled deeper from the shallow turbidite and we have either proven/not proven the concept for a potential +200MMbo combination trap play. My expectations were an RNS next monday on meeting the first main target however I will be happy to hear something this week. The share price movement and MM tactics make me believe news is imminent.
Abzzba, the answer to that is the Share Price. We've hit the bottom...this will start to rise now, most will want to invest for the parallel drilling of Wild Horse and Appraisal wells in Block XX so I can not see this dropping following SL TD regardless of the outcome.
I can't say how fast the drill bit goes. I'm sure this differs on rock formations. We have been given 70 days to reach TD. Given this was previously predicted 50 days I can be sure that contingency has been incorporated in some form. Whether this be mobilisation to next drill site, testing or intermediate targets for casing. September 16th is the latest date should all go to plan. Live readings as the drill bit goes down will provide operational updates as we reach TD. I'm personally not expecting anything for a couple of weeks. Some big buys coming in now. With regards to share price I suspect we are nearing the bottom and the big buys will start coming through (88k yday) I expect this to bounce back to 10p very quickly in anticipation. Have a good weekend all.
Unfortunately we will gravitate around the placing price until results are provided. Mind you, not as much volume as I expected on confirmation of spud. Snow leopard looks exciting. Should hopefully reach first target within 3 weeks. Unfortunately I was at work so was unable to view the presentation today. I haven't checked yet to see if this is available to watch on the PM site. Have a good day all!
I agree Mr P. Considering last years predictions (which would have been concluded based on sinopec estimations) was 50 days. I expect the 70 days to incorporate contingency much aligned with their contract to mobilise to WH. From instruction to Sinopec to informing PIs the rig had reached drill site - 42 days to cover 1100km. Therefore 20 days seems reasonable with float to cover 300km to WH.
Share price has dropped more so than I thought it would have. Fear and panick in a company who has raised funds for 6 upcoming drills commencing next week over the 12 months. All of the reasons for this can be found in the RNS. I don't like to see dilution but yes I get it...the contract is turnkey and therefore they couldn't have agreed it any later than Wild Horse TD. These are basin opener wells! Although I don't anticipate the SP to drop much further than it currently is should SL come back as a duster it would certainly drop significantly following Wild Horse should we be unlucky. So why risk an investment decision on a gamble? You wouldn't. The EGM appears to take 3 weeks. This may be a fixed schedule to ensure availability. PM needed to do this in the month of June in order to get agreement pre spud. Although SL drill period is 50 days I'm sure we will be provided an operational update should we discover any oil shows at first target. Yes we've been diluted. Yes we now need to wait until drill results...with the investment strategy we can wait for these results 6 times over. I don't expect to see much volume this week and therefore the SP won't move much it may even drop a little more. I suspect mind that following the presentation and hopefully a confirmation operational update next week that we will see this rise again above 10p. I don't expect this to rise much further until drill results (should we get lucky). Research the prospects. This is all I need to do to understand why I am invested.
Red Deer is in the south west of Block XX and Gazelle in the North, hence the additional costs in drilling Red Deer to account for mobilisation costs. Logistically, saving in both costs and time they'll be better off drilling the 2 wells in the North. Mike was keen to drill on the crossover prospects to Block XIX where oil has already been found and therefore making these appraisal wells.
These are basin opener wells. Chances are low...and hence why we don't have a farm-in partner. The appraisal wells however may fund future drilling and exploration activites, post mortem analysis will provide higher COS for subsequent drilling in Blocks IV and V. Fox has 3D and therefore I would not categorise the same as WH and SL. They have covered drills of different trap formations therefore I wouldn't compare WH and SL at all. WH being one of the drills to watch this year.