RE-POST ON TEMA13 May 2020 16:07
Will be interesting if we get any numbers tomorrow,... which help us tweak this modelling--- hence the re-post from a few days ago. Any figures we get I can drop in got the s/sheet and we can see where that takes us..
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Old post, 10 May:
Whilst the 'hot' topic of conversation is clearly the covid related sales and products, Patrick is right to flag up TEMA. This is arguably our largest 'single' source of regular income with a 5yr agreement in place,.. presumably dated from June 2019 when we were on the ground or possibly 5yrs from the dating of the Scanport/MPS contract as reported earlier this year.
In any case, a regular, re-occurring revenue stream for the next few years which requires little or no additional high level expenditure on our part. All good news.
So, how to place a value on TEMA and calculate what this might contribute to the value of WSG as a whole?
What are the variables,? Volume,... £'s per TEU,... exchange rates,... Gross profit,.... Profit/earning ratio,... Shares in Issue... --- and Voila!???
I've run some numbers,.. to see what TEMA,.. should/could mean to the share price. and posted below. Clearly my numbers are all my assumptions/guestimates and so have no more validity than anyone else's.... but here goes anyway.
Assumptions-
1 Annual volume in 2020, for 20ft/laden TEU's, will be between 0.75M and 2.0M - ( my gut feel is circa 1.25-1.5M)
2 Price per TEU as per my earlier post circa £6.33 to WSG after Scanport fee taken out
3 WSG Gross profit at 53% ( complete guesstimate based upon overall gross profit margin reported by WSG for Company as a whole and not just managed services division)
4 P/E ratio of 15,... given repetitive regular income, % yr contract,.. expansion of the state of the art port facility and stated target of increasing volume through the port.
5 Current shares in issue circa 160M
Something to contemplate as we await the wooly haired wonder's address at 7pm!
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Containers - $/£'s/unit per TEU- £/to WSG - Gross profit at 53% - P/E -Shares in Issue- £/Share
750,000 $11.22 £9.05 £6.33 £4,750,403 £2,517,714 15 £37,765,706 159,402,511 0.24
1,000,000 $11.22 £9.05 £6.33 £6,333,871 £3,356,952 15 £50,354,274 159,402,511 0.32
1,250,000 $11.22 £9.05 £6.33 £7,917,339 £4,196,190 15 £62,942,843 159,402,511 0.39
1,500,000 $11.22 £9.05 £6.33 £9,500,806 £5,035,427 15 £75,531,411 159,402,511 0.47
1,750,000 $11.22 £9.05 £6.33 £11,084,274 £5,874,665 15 £88,119,980 159,402,511 0.55
2,000,000 $11.22 £9.05 £6.33 £12,667,742 £6,713,903 15 £100,708,548 159,402,511 0.63
What the market values us at and what you might be able to demonstrate, are sadly not one and the same. But from the above, once we have clarity on the revenue being generated at Tema, the value should be recognised and hopefully the sp will reflect this.
Circa 8 weeks until the AGM.
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