scoping study out20 Nov 2018 07:12
npv $800m!
cash flow annum of $184!
Hayden Locke, CEO of Emmerson, commented:
"The Scoping Study has confirmed our belief as a team that Khemisset has the potential to be a low capital cost, high margin potash mine, which is a very rare asset in the industry. Potash is controlled by a small handful of companies and is an industry with high barriers to entry, predominantly in the form of extremely high capital cost. This means that few new players, if any, can ever enter the market. Khemisset, which has an estimated capital intensity less than half of the global peer average, and less than a third of the average Canadian development, gives Emmerson a clear opportunity to be one of the few junior companies in the space.
"The economic sensitivity analysis we have conducted, based on the results of the Scoping Study, indicates that the Project will generate extremely robust returns, regardless of potash price, and supports our strong belief that it will be financeable in any market conditions. This is a hurdle that very few potash projects globally can clear.
"Assuming a flat US$240/tonne CFR Brazil potash price, which is close to the lowest price seen in the Brazilian market in last twelve to fifteen years - and a price which industry performance has shown is not sustainable - the Khemisset Project is still forecast to deliver average annual, post-tax, cashflows of nearly US$80 million per annum over the life of mine. At today's potash price, which is still too low to incentivise the financing and construction of any of the mega potash projects, including BHP's Jansen Project, Khemisset is forecast to deliver post-tax cashflows of over US$180 million per annum and deliver unlevered IRRs of nearly 30%.
"Since acquiring the Project in June we have made strong progress and, thanks to the dedication of our team, I am delighted to be delivering the Scoping Study months ahead of schedule. Our team of independent experts, led by Golder and Ercosplan, have done an outstanding job moving the Project quickly forward, addressing all the key workstreams and risks associated with a Project like this. We believe there is further upside to the economics for Khemisset and we have already identified a number of areas where improvements can be made and where conservative assumptions have been used, which we will seek to refine in the coming studies.
"The next steps will include the completion of drilling, a bankable metallurgical testwork programme and then commencement of more detailed option and feasibility studies. The results of the Scoping Study give our team a clear path to continue to move the Khemisset Potash Project through the various de-risking milestones ahead and our cash balance of £3.8 million, which funds us through until at least Q1 2020, puts us in an enviable position to execute on our strategy quickly."
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