Member Info for Mike12345

Thank you for the clarification, that makes sense now

Ample liquidity with no maturities for over 24 months and intention to refinance well ahead of time- full years results. Where does it say £500m for renewal soon?

Acottyyyyy, you are right a 500% increase wont happen> the price would need to increase, ie through release or report, other catalyst etc

Some good points there, i disagree on the price however. I don't think Sidara would offer that and i certainly don't think Wood would accept that.

My thoughts on valuation are as follows - previous bid of £2.30 at £1.6bn valuation. £1.6bn - £200m (negative FCF required via cash injection), -£200m for continuing to pay bonuses as to not lose staff (random figure I’ve estimated), -£200m as part of refinance package (to reduce debt from £600m to £400m excl lease liabilities) -£200m further for the large write downs in net assets. These figures are ball park but that would give a £1.15 valuation, which I think it reasonable and possible BUT what do I know just what I’d be thinking as a buyer at Sidara to get the best price.

And the thats worth an additional £800m off the valuation? It was £2.30 at £1.6bn, therefore 80p would be about £550m. If it goes for 80p that’s a joke and everyone and all shareholders will know it

As you state the you believe an 80-£1 bid?

SJM1994, some solid points on why a bid is likely. I disagree with your valuation however. How has a negative cashflow of £200m caused the new valuation to drop by £1bn?

I imagine it’s finally clicking with Sharebel. The proposal will have a range and/or indicative price. Otherwise the proposal is essentially some friendly advice 😂 “ patch your roof up, fix the sink and maybe I’ll buy it”

And Sharebel, what do you think is included in the conditional proposal? If I were buying a house worth £500k, would I propose that the owner knock down the garage, sort the driveway out and change the front door, for me to offer a paltry £300k? No because they’d do that only if they were getting a price they wanted and agreed upon. Not trying to have a go just confused by your comments

Hi I lovesushi, if you read the RNS it states a conditional offer has been made. Wood know the offer and clearly seem to be happy, otherwise i would imagine Wood would leave discussions. From the FT article Sidara want sign off from KPMG on the accounts and the deloitte report. To me it remains positive, as Sidara either bid for the company once the report is out, or they dont and the company moves forward as the report will be out the way.

Briefly yesterday I saw an auction of 47p to sell and 41p to buy, I think we will be reaching at least one of these today. There have been significant sells today, very large. The price is holding very steady though, so its a strange environment to be in as you'd expect a larger drop on such sales. For whatever reason I have a hunch that we might see a rise soon, its too quiet for such events to be occurring in the background and bareky any movement... GLA

Interesting, they have made two small purchases and transferred out 4.7m shares. Any thoughts? if it was a sell or reduction in short it would need to be disclosed, I am thinking maybe its to assist another II in closing a short? any thoughts could be wrong

I should also reiterate that I mean market makers also. They will likely either be filling orders on behalf of Institutions or positioning themselves. It’s either that or there isn’t a deal happening!! Haha

To get more shares cheaply for themselves, so if a buyout happens they make more.

This is purely my opinion, but I believe the most plausible and logical explanation for the depressed share price—despite what we retail investors see as fair value—is that funds and institutional investors are deliberately keeping it suppressed for as long as possible. I suspect that when the time comes, we’ll see an explosive move in a matter of minutes, possibly near the end of the trading day.

At this stage, it feels like an announcement should be imminent. It has been too long without an RNS confirming whether a bid is off the table. Why delay unless a price has been agreed upon and the final documents are being formalized?

Even if a deal doesn’t materialize, the stock remains grossly undervalued at these levels.

Icecool, what is your prediction here? you seem to have very logical though out answers.

Yes it means in essence they are all valued at £1 immediately. The reason they are not buying now is because supply and demand if they buy now price will rocket, likely that above the agree price for a takeover

I think it certainly would be rejected, why sell cheap when the company is not going bust, very successful company while winning projects? II shareholders would be infuriated i imagine. Would you sell a lambo for less than half its value?

I think there needs to be somewhat of a big rise prior to an announcement, say 15/20% in a day if a bid is certainly coming. We all know a bid of £1/£1.20 would be rejected, even £1.50 is likely to be rejected. I have never seen a company be bought out for more than 180%. I think there will be early indicators and that will show, keep eyes peeled over next few days. I think acceptance may lie around £1.8-£2.10 but this is my estimates and based on my logic only. So we need to be at 60p ish likely for what i think to be a likely bid prior to an announcement.