What are we sitting on ??24 Dec 2022 16:18
Please allow me to try and put things in to perspective.
Lets forget about all of COPL’s assets except the large find, currently subject to a possible JV.
I am going to assume a very conservative calculation. Prior to any corporation tax, petroleum levy etc, and nothing built in to clean up the site.
I have excluded any CCS EOR earnings that might be a very lucrative part of the business or gas sales etc.
Assume the following please.
1 billion barrels, RF 60% ie 600m barrels.
Extraction of 150,000 bpd (11 years)
OPEX of $27 pb net profit $47 pb
Average POO $75 over the lifetime of the field
300m shares in issue
USD vs GBP of £1.25
600m x $47 = $28 billion
Allow $3 billion for CAPEX
Therefore $25 billion
Let us assume we sign a 50% in a deal
Leaving a possible 50% of $25 bn = $12.5 bn
Minus our contribution of CAPEX = $1.5bn
Net $11bn possible earnings over the next 11 years, or $3.34 dividend pa
$3.34 divided by 1.25 Forex = £2.66 pa.
Having excluded all other aspects of the business, and assuming nil contribution for the JV !
What will COPL shares be worth if something close to the above occurred £14, (average P/E for a UK listed oil Co 5.5) £18 maybe £21
Using the lower figure of £14 share price, that is a 93 bagger from the current SP
Whilst you may wish to change the various figures, I believe the above is a very conservative indication of where the SP might go, in time.
It displays what an enormous asset we are sitting on and likely to double in size, in time.
AM is a superb negotiator- let us see what deal he makes for us SH, I think there might yet be a number of deals to be had.
Now to be ultra ultra conservative and reduce the above SP by 50% and another 50% and you end up not at £14 but £3.50.
Need I say more, DYOR, if happy, load up in the NY ahead of any JV announcement, 2023 should be hugely profitable.
MEM
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