RE: inch6 Dec 2012 08:55
Extract form a large broker note
from Deutsche Bank
refering to stocks to watch
2013........
Deutsche Bank
Markets Research
Europe
Periodical
European Daily
Focus
Tuesday, 4th December 2012
European Equity Strategy 2013 Outlook: Pro Cyclicals
Companies Mentioned
Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI),EUR0.7 Buy Price
Target EUR1.24
Intesa SanPaolo (ISP.MI),EUR1.31 Buy
Price Target EUR1.6
AXA (AXAF.PA),EUR12.67 Buy Price
Target EUR14.3
Adecco (ADEN.VX),CHF45.82 Buy Price
Target CHF54
JCDecaux (JCDX.PA),EUR17.35 Buy Price
Target EUR25
Hunting (HTG.L),GBp806.5 Buy Price
Target GBp1050
BASF (BASFn.DE),EUR69.47 Buy Price
Target EUR76
SKF (SKFb.ST),SEK159.2 Buy Price Target
SEK165
Saint Gobain (SGOB.PA),EUR30.68 Buy
Price Target EUR33.5
Inchcape (INCH.L),GBp429.1 Buy Price
Target GBp480
We are positive on the outlook for equities due to an expected rebound in global
growth to 3.5% in 2013, led by US growth of 2.5%.
In the euro area we expect the pace of deleveraging to slow, the credit impulse to
rebound, and demand to surprise positively in H1 2013. We expect the stronger
GDP growth to improve the fiscal outlook, and for euro area CDS spreads to
tighten.
Three factors that could cause the cycle to turn are 1) an easing in balance sheet
pressures related to the 2011 stress test targets, 2) a slowing in the pace of destocking
in the euro area, and 3) a pick-up in global growth.
In 2012 US household spending was strong, particularly on durable goods and
residential investment. If resolution of the fiscal cliff causes policy uncertainty to
decline, we expect business capex growth to follow suit.
In EM we expect growth to pick-up after 18 months of adjustment, and for the
recovery to regain traction as credit growth stabilizes, led by China.
We expect global growth of 3.5% to drive EPS growth of 6% for the Stoxx 600,
and for the decline in euro area sovereign risks to cause the market to re-rate to
12.5x forward earnings. We expect the Stoxx 600 to rise to 315 by end-2013, and
to 340 by end-2014.
Against this backdrop we believe we should continue to buy cyclicals. The 18%
outperformance of cyclicals relative to defensives since our 2012 outlook note
could be just the appetizer.
The global cyclicals will clearly benefit from a return to 3.5% global GDP growth
and domestic cyclicals should re-rate on the back of a growth surprise in the Euroarea
which might involve a recovery in both business capex and consumer
spending.
A recovery in capex should benefit the revenues of the receivers and enhance the
growth outlook of the spenders. In the next leg of the cyclical rally we need to put
away those ideas that capex is bad.
We recommend overweights in banks, insurance, telecom, chemicals, media and
construction, and underweights in food & beverages. We prefer value over growth
and like the Italian market relative to the Swiss market.
Our 2013 strategy picks are Telecom Italia, Intesa S