RE: IC view on SIA (SOCO) 7th MAR 1916 Mar 2019 13:22
THE REST OF THE ARTICLE..
Tip Update: Hold at 68p
Tip style
VALUE
Risk rating
HIGH
Timescale
SHORT TERM
Our previous tip
We said BUY at 82.2p on 27 Sep 2018
Tip performance to date
-17%
By Alex Newman
In 2018, SOCO International’s (SIA) operating costs fell, its cash pile, cash flow, net assets and top line all rose, and its average barrel of crude even sold at a $3 (£2.30) premium to Brent. But the 28 per cent drop in the shares over the last year suggests shareholders’ focus is all on falling production.
SIA:LSE
SOCO International PLC
Today change
6.62% Price (GBP)
72.50
Full-year results contained no revisions to output guidance, but the trend is negative. Should SOCO hit the lower end of its 6,500-7,500 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) target range, then production will have fallen 21 per cent in two years. Against this decline, a $37.8m reversal of an impairment charge to its smaller Vietnamese field came as a rare bright spot, and flattered reported figures.
It’s just as well that SOCO has a new strategy to tout, in the shape of a $215m cash-and-share bid for Merlon Petroleum, a low-cost Egyptian oiler producing 6,500-7,000boepd. That deal was rubber-stamped in December, and should complete by June.
On average, analysts expect adjusted earnings to narrow to 5¢ per share this year, against 6¢ in 2018.