Thomas Cook - Stockopedia comments13 Aug 2019 00:01
Thomas Cook (LON:TCG)
Share price: 8.1p (-16%)
No. of shares: 1536 million
Market cap: £124 million
Proposed recapitalisation - progress update
Thomas Cook announces an update on its recapitalisation.
It contains little that is new, but gives us a target of early October for implementation.
The upcoming dilution is the main event for shareholders:
...the proposed recapitalisation will require a reorganisation of the ownership of the Tour Operator and Airline businesses which would result in a significant amount of the Group's external bank debt (£650 million) and bond debt (€1.15bn) being converted into equity, resulting in a substantial deleveraging of the Group. Existing shareholders are therefore expected to be significantly diluted as part of the recapitalisation, although they may be given the opportunity to participate in the recapitalisation...
This stock is a bulletin board favourite, attracting hundreds of posts every day.
Recently, there has been excitement over share purchases by some foreign investors: well-known travel entrepreneur Neset Kockar owns at least 8% of the company, while the unknown "Rodionova Lilia" from Russia owns about 3.5%.
It's unfathomable to me why these individuals would get involved in a situation where they are likely to get diluted to smithereens, but they may have tactical reasons: shareholders will be able to vote on the recapitalisation proposal, presumably? Perhaps these new investors think that their ability to delay or influence the terms of the recapitalisation will have some value.
While the involvement of these individuals does suggest some speculative value in TCG shares, the outcome remains highly uncertain.
We can look back at the recent case of Mike Ashley and Debenhams to remind us that just because a wealthy, knowledgeable businessperson is buying into a company which they should understand well, this does not mean that the shares will ultimately prove to be worth very much.
Apart from those investors with some special insight into how the recapitalisation might proceed, TCG shares are best avoided. For gamblers and traders only.