PAUL SCOTT - STOCKOPEDIA - comments27 Jan 2022 12:17
My opinion - very positive. I think SAGA now looks set up for a future where profits should come strongly back, providing travel can operate as normal. Even if restrictions return, we know SAGA can cope, and won’t need to dilute shareholders again, due to the cashflows from its successful insurance business covering any potential travel losses, as has been demonstrated in 2020-22.
What I like best about this share, is that the brand, and customer service are being rebuilt. That will take years, but everything they’re doing is music to my ears. I tested the customer service myself, and was delighted with it - a completely no quibble full cash refund was given, despite me cancelling my cruise on the morning of departure. That tells me this is a trusted brand again, and the upside on valuation from the brand value being restored, could be large. Remember this company was valued at something like £2bn when it was perceived more positively by investors.
On the downside, the shares are very volatile indeed, and nobody really seems sure how to value it. If you use EV/EBITDA then you won’t come up with such a bullish valuation as me (I use PER on future possible earnings of maybe 100p, possible upside to 1200-1500p per share, long-term).
Anyway, so far so good, things are panning out as I hoped. Just have to be patient now, and tuck it away for a couple of years.