COPPER weakness on recession fears10 Jul 2022 23:15
Although speculative short positions will remain in evidence for the foreseeable future, the market fundamentals for the metal over the long haul remain highly favourable. At Antofagasta’s (ANTO) recent annual meeting, its chairman, Jean-Paul Luksic, reiterated the view that “copper has a vital role to play in helping countries, cities and companies to decarbonise”, although he went on to point out that “the effect of grade decline and depletions will lead to a growing supply gap”.
That’s the long-term price dynamic in a nutshell. It also suggests that copper miners will be on the hook for increased capital allocations if persistent supply deficits are to be avoided. Rystad Energy projects that demand for the metal will increase by 16 per cent through to the end of the decade, meaning that global demand will outstrip supply by more than 6mn tonnes by 2030. Last year, global production came in at around 21mn tonnes. Leaving aside the vagaries of operational issues and intensifying capital demand, the pricing outlook for Antofagasta and industry peers is set fair despite current weakness.
extracted from a long IC copper article