RE: Dr. Martens Share16 Apr 2024 10:13
Stockopedia's Paul Scott opinion -
This sounds grim, and I won’t be tempted to catch this particular falling knife. DOCS clearly has lots of problems.
Is it likely to go bust, or need an equity raise? The last (Sept 2023) balance sheet showed only about £99m NTAV, and hefty net bank debt of c.£275m. So investors need to look carefully at the terms & covenants of the bank debt. Banks don’t like funding excessive inventories that aren’t selling, and DOCS will have to figure out how to shift its excess inventories (that means discounting, which lowers profit margins of course).
The trouble with holding shares like this, is the temptation to average down because it seems cheap. However, at £666m market cap with little asset backing, and a big profit warning today (FY 3/2025 profit could be up to two thirds down on FY 3/2024), I’d say it’s actually not cheap. DOCS looks like an opportunistic float at an over-valuation during the pandemic boom.
The CEO says he will step down and hand over to the COO this year.
I think it could take a year or two to sort out this business.
Overall, it’s a mess, so it’s an avoid for me at the moment