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ColdBrew
good post. Of all plausible scenaria, I believe one thing that we can exclude is that they have withheld good news for the SP to go as low as possible and then award themselves options. I don't accept that and, even if we had the slightest suspicion, we shouldn't be investors here.
However, the timing of options (except for the CFO) was unfortunate, as was the strike price. That's for a simple reason: the extent of the SP collapse has been at least in part due to the delays.
My favourite scenario is that results have been good enough, but not unequivocally strong (bit like IBS/Blautix in Q4 2020). So 4D decided not to spook the market, but they have pretty much done that through consecutive postponements.
However, results must have been especially strong on people with a biomarker. Now, what percentage of people have this biomarker we don't know. Also, given the safety profile of 4D's drugs, could it be a clever way to fast track approval as a couple of people have alluded?
Having seen the recent presentation I think we will see an encore of the 35p to 180p scenario. Why? As per my post yesterday, it would be misleading to reiterate in the presentation the 42% clinical benefit in part A and then not to have something very promising to report in Q1 '22 as update for part B.
Finally, I think the arrival of a deramping circus is great news. This sometimes happens when some shorters are trying to keep the price as low as possible and for as long as possible whilst closing their shorts. They may mention the 30s but the price will probably never go below 40p ...
meant to say August / September 2021 not 2020 :-)
Whilst having a great deal of sympathy with comments made re lack of accountability by management to investors and lack of progress reports, I think it is worth WEIGHING UP the arguments before jumping out of the 4D ship OR a significant partial sale - after all, my first concerns about lack of sufficient communications date back to August/September 2020.
My thinking is as follows: in the presentation that has just come out, there was reiteration of the 42% clinical benefit achieved in part A. There was also reiteration of the Q1 2022 timeline for releasing an update on Keytruda/0518. Now think about it... would they have re-emphasised that (fantastic) 42% result in a January 2022 investor presentation which confirms that next update in the SAME trial is for the very same quarter ...ie Q1 '22? IF content of update wasn't positive? How positive is likely to be? That we don't know but I would be very surprised if the results were mediocre or unsatisfactory.
However, 4D management lack of energy or appetite to communicate effectively which can be seen as tantamount to contempt for investors that have supported it the most (some of the retail one along with MSD), is a cause for concern and disappointment - this company once upon a time used to be good at updates.
So nothing's in the bag until we receive the RNSs we expect. At these levels, it's not worth selling but that has been my position since the SP was in the 80s 70s & 60s ...
CrustyPete, the course of the share price isn't and needn't be a binary outcome: uncertainty and consecutive delays can only have exacerbated what might have been an inevitable but less pronounced fall even with moderately positive news / updates. I can only reiterate the point that, through the options, senior management will weather the "storm" relatively unscathed - again that's assuming the SP will recover.
Fair point CrustyPete
But, it would depend on the type of update or explanation given for the delays. For example if the reason was evidence that the combination trial appears to work well - so far - on the patients with a biomarker and we need more time to look into this.
It's all hypothetical, though irrespective on the impact on share price some information should have been released so that investors can make their own assessment of the situation - IF they wish to do so. Now there simply isn't enough information to do that.
... there wasn't any (positive) pieces of news that 4D could announce. Of course it would be the kind of update that they would not be under strict obligation to disclose e.g. the start of a trial or any conclusive results that don't require further analysis. So, any update can wait until 4D is under the obligation to disclose it because of its nature OR ... until the seller goes (if the news can wait).
With the recent award of options the alignment of interest, very strong as it may have been up until very recently, it is weakened. As I've said before, I fully agree with the principle of options: however, the very low strike price means that senior management are now going to be compensated for the (likely) recovery all way back to 110p. Therefore this massive drop won't matter to them eventually.
Again, I'm assuming that any negative result re 0518/Keytruda which would have probably meant the discontinuation of the trial should have been announced by now. So all in all, I am not that bothered about the SP drop - I think it is a temporary storm.
Though I think the approach by management not to give some account of the delays (compared to their own indicated timing) is flawed and especially vis-a-vis a number of investors who bought on the 4D story at whichever stage. After all, it could have prevented the share price from collapsing ... something that impacts most on the investors that have given the most supported to the company.
The other day I posted that the newly awarded options exercise price was low. I still think that for the reasons explained on the day of the RNS. But with the share price going below the 50p barrier yesterday, could such price indicate a floor? There is, of course, the seller and nobody else can do anything about it - however even the seller seems unwilling to be letting shares go below 50p. Barring that, there doesn't seem to be any other factor for the SP erosion. Even mediocre results on 0518/Keytruda have now been effectively pre-empted. There might, unlikely as it may be, an imminent placement in the horizon. But then would it make sense to award options at c.53p for such award to be followed by a placement? Looking forward to the flagship trial 0518 update promised by end of Q1.
Dave Mmacanus, please do a declaration of interest! How much does your boss pay you per post?
Not sure who qualifies as an investor or long-term holder and who doesn't. But, isn't it hilarious that one or two posters who don't really seem to understand 4D, its business or the background of 4D senior management and appeared on the bb just before last November's P&D operation, attempt to offer their sympathies to investors who "have been waiting a long time for news" ... :-)) How about some Sanjiguelas type of contribution re the science instead guys? :-))
ColdBrew
I agree with a lot of what you state in your post.
Re "It's a final warning from me though, if there's any more of this, and of there's no Keytruda update Q1, I'm out.":
We had an extremely positive update in early February last year and whenever I've revisited it, it has reinforced my rationale for remaining invested. Even in September we had some positive hints re 0518 though they were widely open for interpretation in terms of what they meant for the business.
It was a surprise and frankly it is a bit of a concern that Duncan Peyton blamed ONLY external factors for a "frustrating" level of the share price - the state of the share price is most definitely NOT due - solely - to the state of the market or the sector or the persisent seller. The postponement 2-3 times of news on 4D's flagship programme - without explaining why or some progress report - must have played a role too.
Nonetheless, I also think the hiring of the CFO is an encouraging development given his experience. Furthermore, I can't help but to think that (i) if the 0518/Keytruda trial had been futile we should / would have been told about it (ii) there is probably a lot of activity going on behind the scenes though ... we shouldn't have to keep on guessing.
Therefore, I hope and think we will get a meaningful update on 4D's main trial. However, patience has, certainly, its limits. So if we don't get such an update, it will almost certainly mean an orderly exit for my part too.
I'm all up for options as an effective means to incentivise staff. For a company at the stage 4D is at, it makes perfect sense for senior members of staff (and not only) to get such awards.
?owever, when we have a few important deliverables that have been outstanding for months, it does raise the question whether the timing of such awards is a good one and ... especially at such low strike price. It is the CEO who told us the other day that the market conditions have been especially unkind to the sector: the latter factor coupled to the forced or, at least, persistent seller(s) means we are faced with a rock-bottom price which is now less than half of the 110p placement price. If that's the case and the company considers the price as "frustrating", is it appropriate to choose such a strike price?
It is understandable - especially given the sector 4D is in - that you postpone the announcement of some interim progress data on your flagship programme 0518/Keytruda in the main focus area(oncology). It can happen once, twice and for the right important reason I might even be OK if it happened again and we don't have interim results by end of Q1.
However, what is not on is the LACK of a PROGRESS REPORT on 0518 and the lack of an explanation re the reasons for the delays (even without revealing sensitive data).
For the CEO of 4D to give a low-energy interview and to ignore the elephant in the room (0518 / Keytruda trial), it is difficult to comprehend.
Without a strong retail investor base where would the SP could be 15p or less? At what price would a placement take place then?
I remain hopeful we will see more meaningful updates than in the last few months and since NASDAQ listing in particular.
=> Very good results from Part A asthma phase I/II which went beyond the safety/tolerability minimum targets. That's surely excellent news. But it's a long time until progression to part B and even longer until we get meaningful results. Hence the underwhelming reaction!
=> It is has now become very obvious, what we've known for some time: oncology and 0518 in particular accounts for well over half of 4D's valuation. Shall we say 65-80+% depending on then you take the market cap snapshot?
=> So the big elephant missing from the interview was 4D's flagship 0518/keytruda trial. Apart from a very vague reference to biomarkers - especially given the long time lapsed since February'21 - we didn't hear much else. And that's after two postponements of some news re the 0518/Keytruda trial and ... still NO progress report to explain why.
Is it a surprise that the markets appear to be spooked?
=> As others have remarked already: what about pancreas trial?
=> 4D has a history of keeping quiet for a long time when news isn't good or plans have changed: The company mentioned almost nothing about the covid trial after the RNS about the fast tracking, only to find out a year or so later that it wasn't going ahead!!
=> Lackluster (to put it very mildly) presentation by Duncan Payton as many have observed already - and this is not the first time in 2021. He has done well to lead the 4D team up to here. But there comes a time when a company goes into a more mature phase and management needs and required skills change: unless we see more energy, more accountability to investors and, most importantly, some tangible deliverables or, at the very least, PROGRESS reports when it comes to oncology or IBS (where timelines keep on being extended)... the question will be asked whether he is still the right person at the helm.
All-in-all I don't think it makes any sense to sell at 54 even though it could go a lot lower. I still think there is potentially tremendous value in the 4D platform (a case which seems to be reinforced when trial results get announced). However, irrespective of good or bad news we expect much better standards of ACCOUNTABILITY to investors and the retail ones in particular who seem to be providing the main line of support for the company.
Finally, to state the obvious, this company is not for investors without a strong appetite for risk... hopefully the return will start appearing ... one day in q1 2021.
Patagucci, the results also showed positive impact on patients so if the trial s objective was mainly safety, goal was exceeded. As for the price, it depends whether the seller(s) will carry on or might there be a small scale short squeeze?
Part A results were positive by every measure compared to placebo (as per overview). But that extra bit of the 4d platform validation we get is probably as, or even more, important than the results themselves and that we can now proceed to part B.
Even though 4d have left it very late in the year I'd be very surprised ?? if we didn't have at least one important piece of news this side of Christmas - it won't be re keytruda + 0518 trial. Management and DP in particular know that their credibility would receive a serious dent otherwise. Whatever that important piece of news is, they also know it has to be positive: they can't control the outcome of research of course but they can steer, to a large extent, commercial negotiations re Blautix to a successful outcome. After all, it is 4d that kept on saying how successful the phase II trial was, even before the result was announced.
Sangi,
"They are not geared at small retail investors."
As it is the case with other companies that are at the stage where R&D is still work-in-progress or even early stage (all programmes except 0518, IBS), I think 4D retail investors have provided a significant part of the base off which the company will be able to target (increasingly) the IIs.
Furthermore, retail investors provided very helpful levels of support (last lines of defence) at times when the price would have collapsed completely (i.e. even below 35p in the course of last year).
A "healthy" investor base should include both categories in significant percentages though IIs importance will, no doubt, increase as the company conquers more milestones.
Sangi, well said! Referring to your earlier posts. We seem to be agree for a change!
It would be much better if any commenting and buy recommendations - let alone the repetitive tiring pumping - came from people who actually understood something about the stock! :-)
I'd also be inclined to take someone more seriously if they were genuine investors (including short term & day traders) as opposed to employees or contractors who appear to be paid per post.
Good evening bb,
As there have been some misrepresentations by a “poster” of my recent posts, I'd invite, anyone who is interested, to check my recent posting history and in particular what I said about the timing of the announcements re the various programmes. In the October corporate presentation it is stated that initial results from part B MRx0518 Keytruda trial are to be announced by Q4 2021/Q1 2022. In all likelihood that means Q1 2022.
Now, if anything, I do try to be very careful about what I post and explain my speculations. Also, I am (very) long 4D and have maintained a significant core investment in the company since late April 2020.
The “poster” who, earlier today, misrepresented my recent posts actually claimed very recently (just before the recent rise) that it was obvious that the MRx0518 Keytruda trial was not going well. Was it that himself or … his EMPLOYER were about to close a short?? Who knows but it is a possibility.
Now, he seems to have embarked on manipulation of some sort i.e. apparently he is “certain” about ALL news (i.e. including MRx0518) being this side of Christmas and reacting in a hysterical way when people question (based on evidence) the credibility of new arrivals on the 4D bb who are non-stop ramping 4D. So the parties OR their employers have now turned long from short? Or, is the "poster" (and others?) extremely nervous and desperate because of their leveraged trades. Again, who knows? However, some weird posting patterns are very hard not to take notice of.
In any case, all the more important for people to make their own decisions based on company information and not to be influenced by people who - evidently - seem very nervous when someone questions their posts or those of the non-stop rampers!! Those who were following the share last year may recall the incessant ramping mainly by 1-2 individuals in the 2 months leading up to the IBS announcement. Then they disappeared even though the news was ... GOOD, arguably VERY GOOD.
4D deserves better than that and consistently long-investors also deserve better! Why? Hopefully we’ll have some good, possibly transformational, news announced. It would be a pity if the value of the company experienced again the huge volatility (ups and downs) that we have seen even in the last 12 months by aggressive speculators / (possible) shorters come short-term holders who then sell … and the cycle gets repeated again.
It is exactly the reason that I strongly think that a company, not just 4D, shouldn’t leave investors wondering for long periods of time: that way it becomes so much more vulnerable to manipulation. Obviously, you don’t want RNS issued at the drop of a hat but it is best when you are clear in communications rather than let people trying to guess.
Good evening and luck to (consistently) long investors :-)
Sangi: re your 10:57 post: it's not that prices mentioned by Porky are excessive - if anything, and as you also seem to say, we could well see valuations that correspond to significantly higher prices, especially if (even) one or, possibly, more of the more advanced programmes deliver positive results.
Frankly, with (unequivocally) positive results from part B Keytruda / 0518 we could go into the billions USD valuation.
What is objectionable is that such "predictions" appear to be completely arbitrary and lack any business-related assumptions - in fact they ignore the 4D business side of things. The same individual stated that we'll have news on 5 programmes in 3 weeks which quite different to what the company has stated.
Dave:
I think it is entirely appropriate to quote a poster from a different board as it is important that people who watch this bb know the "history" of someone who has been making unfounded claims for other companies e.g. NCYT reaching £54!
Also, I see you're trying to be a self-proclaimed moderator on this bb. Has it occurred to you that you might not be recognised by others as such? Otherwise, feel free to go elsewhere yourself or NOT to read my posts. It's so simple!
Finally and whilst broker analysis is helpful, broker valuations/target prices are not very meaningful at this stage in my view - though more reliable than other arbitrary crystal-ball predictions. The further advanced the programmes are and the closer the drugs get to approval, the more reliable the broker valuations will become.
Good luck anyway.