Member Info for MH01

A few months back I shared very rudimentary calculations, not discounted cashflow, and in summary:

- $2,000USD gold and $1,000 net profit equals a share price range of 15p to 22p. Based on an annual production range of 300k ounces to 450k. 30% of that for GGP. And PE ratio of 10.

- Change PE ratio to 15 equals share price range 22p to 33p.

- Now change gold price to $2,500USD and $1,500 profit, equals a share price range 22p to 33p for PE ratio of 10.

- Change the PE ratio to 15 and share price range is 33p to 49p.

- Based on same production profile as noted above for $2,000 gold.

So overall range is 15p to 49p depending upon three things, the spot price, net profit after AISC and the annual production output of gold/copper.

Company tax in Australia is 30% on taxable profits so need to factor that into the net profit calculation.

Tig why are you ignoring costs and taxes? No valuation will be based on the top line revenue.

I agree that the new Newmont guy is likely replacing someone who is leaving. Same as for the Telfer jobs, replacing leavers.

Decline is at a 7 to 1 angle or something like that right? So 80metres * 7 = say 550metres of the decline to go to arrive at the ore body

The Lassonde Curve is real… it’s supported by decades of data the supported its release in 1990. And 30 years later the theory still holds. Time will tell how the theory will apply to GGP, but we need to get to first pour in order for the share price chart to be reviewed in the rear view mirror

Https://youtu.be/jNNg10imnSk?si=pHrOouesLI7sHkZ3

100% agree about a re-rate. We all are here on that expectation. Lassonde Curve 2nd wave. Currently too many "unknowns" and the share price is being whacked as a result. The focus for 2024 for GGP is to clear out these unknowns for Havieron, then find the next Havieron. So far nothing in the Paterson so I hope Ernest Giles is the one.

When you quote figures that are not comparable, don't get the hump when someone points it out. GGPs net profit after AISC and taxes is the only number that matters in terms of the company valuation.

The FS will be interesting to see what AISC cost is quoted, it should be higher than the PFS given inflation the past 2 years.

Don't get all flustered when someone like me is not ramping everyday. It is very frustrating waiting for this to turn up. Likely not until Q4 2024 if the DTM and FS are held back until then.

*they buy the estimated profits.

$3400AUD is the top line revenue though, whereas gold in the ground focuses more on profits after costs. Nobody buys the top line, they but the estimated profits.

They discuss Northern Star after the short selling discussion. It was mentioned NST have a gold hedge at AUD$3,400. Current spot is AUD$3,040.

Shaun saying same…. Hoping short sellers shaking in their boots

https://youtu.be/oPsWKkyy3aY?si=Q28LqHZfzLbo8Xbv

Gold does not make the list.... https://www.riotinto.com/en/products

IMO -- RIO would not have an interest to buy GGP or Havieron. They look for strategic acquisitions of companies that have the commodity they need. Gold is not a priority, copper is. Therefore I doubt Newmont is of interest to them, they can afford it. Look at RIOs recent acquisitions for a flavour of what they are up to.

https://www.riotinto.com/en/news/releases

FMV (fair market value) requires a buyer(s) willing to pay it. The market is ascribing a value below your suggested FMV, time will tell if anyone is prepared to pay over £1billion.

In the meantime Havieron needs to motor on to first pour, we need the DTM and FS.

Shaun is excited over Ernest Giles and its greenstone potential. Let's hope they manage to find something this year to excite the market.

Square this circle for me then. Market cap is currently under £400mill and so Newmont could literally buy us on market for say £500mill tops. So how do you circle back to £1.5bill?

IMO only way to see full value for GGP is to follow the Lassonde Curve and get to first revenue, plus, have a clear pathway communicated to the market of future profitability and cashflow.

We need to project huge annual reliable cashflows to the market, then the share price can hang its hat on something.

Look at Aussie weather forecast online, lots of rain in WA

Next year …. Isn’t that the same as said last year, and the year before that, etc. The market is pricing GGP under 8p not 38p. Being realistic here. I’ll fantasise about what I wish the SP was but that’s becoming tedious.

Ramping is the same as de-ramping IMO and should avoided.