Considered “high risk” but you wouldn’t believe that today if you didn’t know the history and looked at the share price
https://www.fool.com.au/2015/03/05/fortescue-metals-group-limited-refinances-debt-is-it-time-to-buy/
Back in 2015 Fortescue’s share price took a big hit. Back then FMG was still relatively new in iron ore competing against RIO, Vale, BHP. They had massive debt to refinance. Iron prices were low. There were concerns FMG could not refinance the debt in the billions of dollars, hence the share price. However Andrew Forrest pulled it off and now look at their share price and market cap and how wealthy Andrew is. So from being close to bankruptcy to multi billionaire. You need to let GGPs story unfold before passing judgement. Callum has backed the company clearly as he remains a significant shareholder. We can learn a lot from these sorts of real life examples.
Another way to look at Callum, like Jerry says “long game”, is like Andrew Forrest and Jeff Bezos. Both of their companies have gone up and down, both founders held through the highs and lows. Had they sold out in the early days they’d be millionaires yes, but not the billionaires they are today. Perhaps Callum has a similar mindset with his view of GGP.
If he holds 100mill shares he gains and loses £1mill per 1pence swing in SP. If I’m the future GGP paid 1p dividend he’d receive £1mill. Big numbers involved. So similar to the other examples Callum may be taking a long term view. Hence not selling at 38p.
Callum founded GGP. Has a passion for the company that Gervaise never had. GH won the lottery with his 100+mill shares at a share price in the high 30s. I believe he sold most in the 20s as he was restricted until Shaun started. Google Gervaise Heddle and look at the expensive house he bought in Sydney last year…. Thanks to GGP. Gervaise cares for himself whereas I believe Callum genuinely cares for GGP since he created it, hence Callum not selling out like GH.
How can you say Callum has made a bad decision… until he sells his shares then it’s a moot point. We assume he sold some to buy the new boat. Good for him. If the second leg of the Lassonde Curve runs up past the all time high and Callum sells then, was he wise to hold?
It’s very easy to look back in time and say I should have done XYZ. Much harder to make the key decisions at the time though, which can be assessed in the future.
We only care about our own financial positions. I know personally I want to see GGP back in the 20s asap. 20p a share means £1bill market cap though … so buying Telfer plus Hav plus the other Paterson JVs could see it happen this year.
When Bloomberg screenshots were being shared Callum’s shares were always around the 80million mark, before the closure of Starvest. So that was during 2023. Well after the SP highs. So I don’t think he sold that many as a percentage of his holdings. Now add back new shares received via the Starvest closure and his shareholding is likely to be around 100million or above.
Https://youtu.be/iB9aMxKV-bo?si=hr7pJogsSpEgZyEz
Back to basics. From one of the largest PI shareholders of GGP shares. Compelling investment. Lassonde Curve.
I wonder how close, if at all, GGP is to buying Telfer and Havieron plus the other Paterson JVs. Given the staff employed and their resumes I’d have thought they’d be chomping at the bitt for it to happen. Their roles would change immensely and also their future wealth could be transformed into generational wealth should GGPs share price 10 bag from here on that change in business.
Second half they chat our sector https://youtu.be/e-TaU-zXp6A?si=5N6JuMVoV7AJOU6K
Share price down … manipulation. Share price up… manipulation. Hmm.
Tomorrow you’ll forget what trades happened today, same as always. We don’t control the trades and price so why let it bother you.
Hindsight is amazing in that we all wish we sold at 38p so we could buy back at 6p. That Lassonde guy seems to know a thing or two and it’s a shame the majority of us weren’t clued up. Nevertheless we know the LC now and we can profit from it second time around.
The bigger picture is in our favour. We just don’t know how long we have to wait.
That is the thing, nobody knows when a great RNS could land, seeing the SP jump up 10%/20%/30%/40% etc etc. Jump out now and buy a safer share and made 5% to 10% over the coming months and miss the potential RNS and GGP boom, or, wait until the GGP RNS and buy back in.