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Correction: The RNS was Mar-17 - not Apr-17! Ignore the timing of Amina Benkhadras presentation.
But I still believe the other points are valid re permits and deal dates etc
ATB
M
Deal June the earliest?
Post the Mar-07 Novum note detailing a flow test and 2 well campaign,
Amina Benkhadra spoke in front of the House Committee for energy etc Apr-13
1. “The Director-General of ONHYM, Amina Benkhadra, stressed in a Wednesday presentation before the House Committee on Infrastructure…… Predator Oil & Gas intends to drill 3 wells and map 200 km2 for oil procurement.” - 2022-Apr-13
2. “The MOU-NE prospective lead is being matured as a potential third well in the planned drilling programme. 2D seismic reprocessing over this feature will be completed by the end of May 2022.” – RNS 2022-Apr-17
So putting 1 & 2 together – I wouldn’t expect to see a deal for a 3 well campaign before the seismic & analysis is in for the 3rd well.
Given that the seismic for the 3rd well will be completed by the end of May, I wouldn’t expect to see a deal until June earliest.
Links for the above points:
1. https://www.chambredesrepresentants.ma/en/agenda/discussion-themes-related-energy-sector-wednesday-april-13-2022?sref=item3211-147422
2. https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/predator_oil_and_gas/news/rns/story/r75p7zw
Also, it’s interesting to note the dates – The presentation was made on the: Apr 13
The PRD RNS came 4 days later- Apr 17… stating we´d like to drill… 3 wells.
1. Amina Benkhadra knew that were planning a 3 well campaign before we (Investors) did.
2. As she´s the one who OKs the drill permits and EIA´s & If she announces publicly to the we´re drilling 3 wells –I read that as an all clear re permits etc.
Also, what’s interesting: ¨The drill rig has been secured & will be inspected shortly¨ – Does this imply we plan to drill before SDX? Would we be inspecting the rig if another company were to use it before hand?
ATB
M
In light of that reply with regards off-take financing
- To expand on my top choice below - If off-take financing is still on the table, then for myself that’s the best way forward.
1. It gives us funding to drill/ develop without field/company equity dilution.
2. If PRDs plan is still discover and sell, then profit margins on gas off take don’t matter as long as the drills are covered.
3. Upon flowing gas, we will also have reserved based lending to mitigate any further dilution.
ATB
M
For myself, in order:
1. Off-take agreement
2. Share raise: Only for Mou-4 drill and test
3. Wait for Ireland or Trinidad
*2 & 3 Could be visa versa depending on developments
If Mou-1 flows – Which I think probable given the well logs - Then use reserves-based lending – and go from there. But raise before, to mitigate non-flow risk.
Not overly keen with regards a JV at this stage for the following reasons (Unless it’s a very good deal)
1. We´ve already taken the biggest ´risk´ by drilling the basin and getting petrophysical logs – Which look very good.
2. I like PRDs potential for extraordinary upside. If we sell the ´risk´ we sell the ´reward´ potential of upside –
3. I’m happy being patient - Been here since 2019 - I’d rather wait for the Ireland - Trinidad - final scenario before giving away field equity.
IMO & ATB
M
Does anyone know what happened to the LNB-1 well?
I’ve searched high and low and can’t find its fate?
Mid case was 10.2BCF
In the upper section the porosity was 33%
Can’t find any flow test results? Was the permeability to low?
The LMS-1 well was drilled just after but the flow test wasn’t as expected - It was thought the extra drilling mud due to the high pressures pushed into the well walls.
Any info would be much appreciated.
ATB
M
-Off Topic-
Apologies Sefton,
The PM system must not work in a -Membership - Non membership format.
I just sent a thank you for your postings, over time & how fortunate we are, to have so many great people & and their input on this board - “The whole is greater than the sum of its parts “ - but didn’t want to distract/take up space from the discussion… Ce’st la vie - here it finds itself :)
Wishing you & all a pleasant evening.
Many thanks for the info Vegas!
So it looks like there’s no possibility of meeting the supply needs for all nine plants through the MOFFAT connector….
Which leaves the following options:
A) FSRU terminal
B) From local gas fields (Which also don’t have the supply at current) – Which would mean more fields to be developed.
C) Both
Sounds obvious but when you look at the time frames (2024) one of these solutions has to be chosen quite soon to allow for the corresponding infrastructure to be built…otherwise there will be nine power plants doing nothing…
PRD has solutions for all areas and have been in planning for a while now. Including the storage facility to meet the EU security of supply regs.
It will be interesting to see how this develops going forward - Especially with regards to time frames...
ATB
M
Ireland:
Not looked too closely at it (But will):
Q: Do we have a general stand-alone valuation for our Corrib South asset?
Corrib South : Best Estimate of 212.4BCF @ 30% Risk Factor
‘Ireland has been transformed in 12 months. At the beginning of the year gas was side-lined in Ireland. At the end of the year another Corrib gas field is required to supply 9 new gas-fired power stations. Our strategy of hanging in there and providing a technocrat's view of the Energy Transition has served the Company well.’ – RNS - Wed, 15th Dec 2021
‘Another Corrib gas field is required to supply 9 new gas-fired power stations’
– Corrib gas field: Recoverable gas 594BCF
That’s a lot of gas Ireland needs… one way or another now its confirmed.
‘Gas supply required for full operation of the power plants would be 300 mm cfgpd’
Q: How much spare capacity has the current UK-Ireland gas supply got? I will be looking but would appreciate if anyone knows already.
It looks like an appealing asset after the recent change in Ireland energy policy regarding its own fields, new gas fired power plants & the EU’s pivot to reclassify gas as ‘Green Energy’
Also, how the energy crisis in EU is really pressing countries with no energy optionally [FSRU] (i.e. Germany, Ireland) to look at options…
An interesting map of LNG import terminals in EU:
https://twitter.com/lseaim/status/1488033303332597760?s=27
ATB
M
P.S. Sefton – Sent you a PM
Hi Matt,
I haven’t got around to populating Reddit with the RNS/ PRD Website data links yet - I’ll put them up first when I get going on it -
ATB
M
Morning all!
I’ve been offline due to commitments/project – But finished now.
Will be updating Reddit page this week all been well - apologies for the hiatus –
Many thanks again to everyone on LSE for all the great research & contributions – will do my best to populate Reddit fully.
The 2022 CPR is replete with great data…
If you have any problems with Reddit please always feel free to contact me via Twitter or the Reddit mail function – Always happy to help.
ATB
M
https://wp-predatoroilandgas-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/01/cpr2022.pdf
An Bord sets March date for LNG decision
https://m.independent.ie/regionals/kerryman/news/an-bord-sets-march-date-for-lng-decision-40826904.html
Here’s just a handful of other people who may make the same mistake, if causally posting on a BB.
Fortunately, for some of them, THEY’RE not alive now to have a 'crass' message from yourself, with regards to THEIR intelligence…?? Despite a lot of your current world being created by them.
• Albert Einstein
• Leonardo da Vinci
• The wright brothers
• Henry Ford
• Steve Jobs
• Bill gates
• Alexander Graham Bell. ...
• Thomas Edison
• Galileo Galilei. ...
• James Clerk Maxwell. ...
• Michael Faraday. ...
• Winston Churchill
• George Washington
• Woodrow Wilson
• Steven Spielberg
• John Lennon
• Andy Warhol
• Mohammad Ali
• Pablo Picasso
• Jackie Stewart
• Michael Phelps
• Babe Ruth
• Magic Johnson
• Pierre Curie. ...
• Jacques Dubochet. ...
• John Robert Horner. ...
• Carolyn Widney “Carol” Greider
• Archer John Porter Martin
• Tommy Hilfiger
• Walt Disney
• Tom Cruise
• Jennifer Aniston
• Anthony Hopkins
• Keira Knightley
• Robin Williams
• Jim Carrey
• Keanu Reeves
• Orlando Bloom
• Vince Vaughn
? Agatha Christie
? F. Stt Fitzgerald
• WB Yeats
• Hans Christian Anderson
• Jane Austen
Wishing you all the best & I hope your investment works out well.
BR
M
P.S. Again, thanks to the many great posters on the board.
Hi PastaBelly,
Didn’t expect to see that when I checked in. Ha.
Thank you for your apology. Although,
No offence taken. As I understand, being mildly dyslexic, that when posting here, everything I write is ‘fair game’ to trolls. But I choose to share my research non the less, as I appreciate and am thankful for the fact that others have, for my benefit.
But I feel now, I must explain a little for myself and others like me. So not to cause you further disappointment…(For future reference, it’s best you green box me )
I wouldn’t be so quick to limit intelligence in such a narrow way,
Intelligence takes many forms…
You can be socially intelligent, verbally intelligent, numerically intelligent, physically intelligent…etc.
I’ve worked with my ‘Achilles heel’ through life and don’t complain. I feel blessed for the different ways in which I see the world. Not once has it held me back, in fact, it’s allowed me to excel and has served me very well in this age of information. The ability to take in and piece together large sets of data, seeing patterns and finding meaning in them, has been very beneficial for me - Serving me well in the investing world also…
I’ve been blessed to read mathematics, physics, and engineering like poetry. The language that has given us the tools to transform, in complex and elegant ways, the physical matter you see in front of you now, into a multiplicity of wonders. Then we label these complex things with simple words, such as ‘computer’ or ‘phone’. Just simple labels– That’s all.
I don’t know you, but do you find the language of math, physics and engineering easy?
It’s just that, I don’t look down on anyone who can’t navigate these languages like I can… I don’t quip at their lack of elegance in these fields either… do you?
I would find it to be very distasteful.
Just a little information on dyslexia for next time your publicly berating a person’s grammar on a casual BB after they freely share their research with you (Not the first time here)… also you’ve missed many grammatical/ spelling errors in your own and other postings. You must have a busy night ahead of you…
All dyslexics are of course different; what one person might struggle with, another will not. They do however share some unique gifts and talents, which are:
• They can utilize the brain’s ability to alter and create perceptions
• They think and perceive multi-dimensionally, using all the senses.
• They are more curious than average.
• They have vivid imaginations - good problems solvers.
• They are highly intuitive –
• They can experience thought as reality – disorientation.
• They are highly aware of the environment
• They think mainly in pictures/images, rather than using the sound of words.
• Dyslexia is just a different thinking/learning style.
Hi Footandmouth and Sefton,
I agree, I think Morocco has taken the lime light off the T&T operations - the COVID delays also didn’t help…
IMO PG has achieved a great deal… and despite the delays thankfully the laws of physics and chemistry don’t change over night like sentiment does…
I’m looking forward to updates regarding OPs -
Also agree in regards to value…
BR
M
Should of said ‘testing crew’ not ‘test rig’ sorry
Rigless testing…
SDXs LMS2 well – Flow test Q4 2021
Glanced over this in the operational report and didn’t really look into it… after reading about it thought it interesting enough- Not to sure if it had been brought up before?
With regards to SDX's LMS2 and our MOU-1 well:
- “Sands equivalent to those encountered in SDX Energy’s LMS¬2 well in the Rharb Basin (“onlap surface” PGVL nomenclature) – SDX to flow¬test in Q4 2021, after operational delays due to COVID¬19 in 2020.”
Looking into the LMS2 well drilled last year by SDX:
- From the SDX CEO: “Early analysis of the thermogenic composition indicates that the LMS-2 gas is different from any other discoveries in the area, with a new and likely deeper source rock”
- Also the SDX CEO regarding calling results: “we require this well to be perforated and tested before we can understand its potential.”
- Note the time its taken to get the test rig… Drilled in March 2020 - Testing scheduled for Q4 2021
- I wonder if we’ll be ‘piggy backing’ the test rig and crew?… and that was always the plan?
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T&T
“Opportunities have been identified to potentially realize the investment made to date in C02 EOR in Trinidad through consolidation with in-country producers expressing an interest in C02 EOR services provided by Predator Oil & Gas Trinidad Ltd”
- I wonder if this could be Massy? The new Co2 taxes and green shift would take a burden on there business. The Co2 sequestration services could take that ‘cost’ by product and turn it into a profit producing one – They have the money… Future proof T&T operations - turning Co2 taxes into credits… and since there the only major producer of Co2, it would give them a definitive monopoly in T&T…
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Also as a note: I put up a Gas in Place Estimate calculator on reddit. Its in Excel format.
https://www . reddit . com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/pcqdyd/prd_gas_in_place_calculator/
An explanation is on the reddit page,
I just put in the Stock figures from the CPR and the N:G calculated from the presentation per previous notes. Using an average sand thickness (10 + 55)/2 = 32.5m and the P90 area on enclosure 4. Km2 .. it comes to a estimate of 51BCF… So I presume for there P90 estimate they used an average sand thickness ( My own presumption) . If that is the case it’s interesting putting in the 75M from the update RNS – Even more interesting looking at the MOU-4 area of enclosure ….
All the input data can be altered. – Uses the standard formula for predicting Gas in Place.
IMO & DYOR
ATB
M
"Higher log resistivity and dry gas readings in TGB-2 unit over a gross interval of 75 metres despite significant increase in mud weight required whilst drilling."
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PERFORATING AND TESTING
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“If warranted, rigless testing will be performed and, depending on results, appraisal drilling may be approved for Q4 2021 in order to fast¬ track an early gas development in 2022 for the Compressed Natural Gas market “ – Annual report p24
1. First job on the work programme: MOU-1: Perforating and testing warranted to evaluate commercial flow potential.
2. Then: “final well location to appraise the MOU-1 drilling results.” For Q4
Define ‘appraisal well’ - An appraisal well is a used to establish an extension to an existing discovery, in the same play as that discovery.
3. Well heads have been fitted to MOU-1 and looks like they plan to keep them there… Ordering new ones for MOU-4 : “Import long-lead consumables (cement and mud chemicals, casing and WELL HEADS) in advance of drilling MOU-4 (targeted Q4 2021) to replenish MOU-1 well inventories”
4. Perforation and testing was never in the drill budget of $2.5M:
Depth, rig time & costs: “US$ 2.5 million dry hole estimated cost (without testing) “ Coprorate presentation 2020 p11
It was always a decision to be made and funded after the drill and data are in.
“MOU-1 was safely and successfully drilled within the Company's pre-drill budget estimates and completed for proposed rigless testing after presentation of results to our partner.” – RNS Mon, 19th Jul 2021
*Vids on Reddit showing completion and the testing process
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MUD WEIGHTING: WHAT CAN IT TELLS US PRACTICALLY?
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“Mud weight forms an integral and vital component part in controlling the drilling operating window and wellbore pressure management requirements. It contributes to both direct and indirect indicators and is a key metric of the magnitude and extent of pressure and operating conditions that exist. Mud primarily provides the hydrostatic density and pressure as a function of vertical depth to support the range of wellbore formation pressures that exist in each section to be drilled. It serves to assure that no kicks, lost circulation, or wellbore instability events result in both static and dynamic operating conditions during all drilling operating activities conducted.”
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Formation pressure
Formation pressure is the pressure exerted by the formation fluids, which are the liquids and gases contained in the geologic formations encountered while drilling for oil or gas. It can also be said to be the pressure contained within the pores of the formation or reservoir being drilled. Formation pressure is a result of the hydrostatic pressure of the formation fluids, above the depth of interest, together with pressure trapped in the formation. Under formation pressure, there are 3 levels: normally pressured formation, abnormal formation pressure, or subnormal formation pressure.
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Over pressure
By convention in the petroleum industry, overpressure refers to pressures higher than normal that require heavy drilling mud to keep formation fluids from entering the borehole.
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Mud weight and pore pressure:
The mud weight needed to control a well reflects pore pressure of any permeable formations drilled. To control a well, operators generally use a mud weight that will exert a pressure close to the expected pore pressure. When drilling mud kicks or blows out, the pressure from the mud is less than, but usually close to, pore pressure.
Calculating pressure from mud weight:
PORE PRESSURE = 0.052 X MUD WEIGHT X DEPTH
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Conclusion:
There are lots of equations and calcs that can be performed regarding mud weight (Please see Reddit links for a few) but I think this above equation is a clear one that tells us what we need to know.
Given a porous zone (Our sands are 19% estimated - Good) – The mud weight is directly proportional to pore pressure….
More mud = Greater pressure from the formation = Gas charge
We had a significant increase in mud weight.
“Higher log resistivity and dry gas readings in TGB-2 unit over a gross interval of 75 metres despite significant increase i