Balanced Realism11 Apr 2026 11:56
I’m seeing a lot of excitement here after the recent run, and fair enough – it’s been a strong move. But I think it’s worth stepping back and looking at where the company actually is versus where the share price is implying it should be.
First, the move itself:
The share price has risen extremely quickly – over 500% in the last year alone.
Moves like that are usually sentiment-driven rather than purely fundamentals, and history shows they often need time to consolidate.
Production vs reality:
Yes, there is a producing asset (Cobre), but that’s essentially a magnetite stockpile operation generating relatively modest revenue. The flagship asset – Redmoor – is still a development project, not a producing mine.
That distinction matters. Exploration/development assets can take many years (and significant capital) to move into production, even if the geology is strong.
Valuation disconnect:
You’re looking at roughly ~£90–100m market cap versus only a few million in annual revenue and sub-£1m profit.
That’s a big gap, and the market is clearly pricing in future success well ahead of delivery.
Funding / dilution risk:
To get something like Redmoor into production will require serious capital. That usually means placings at some stage. Even if the project is good, shareholders need to factor in dilution along the way.
Execution risk:
Mining projects are notoriously slow and complex:
* permitting
* feasibility work
* financing
* build-out
Any delays here can stretch timelines significantly.
Reliance on one meaningful cash generator:
At present, the bulk of revenue comes from the Cobre operation.
That’s not the same as having multiple producing assets underpinning the valuation.
Bottom line (for me):
I’m not saying it’s a bad company – far from it. There’s clearly potential in the assets. But the share price looks to be pricing in a successful future outcome that is still years away and not guaranteed.
Personally, I’d expect a period of consolidation or drift while the company works through the next stages, unless there’s a major catalyst.
Just my view – always worth everyone doing their own research.
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