Member Info for merloid

I would say our most reliable way to know is by awaiting news

Thing is if the post about using tech to reduce need for flaring is in anyway correct and applied to this well, then no flare is irrelevant. Also if xmas shut down suggestion is true then no flare is irrelevant. Real risk of people reading too much into the sat photos.

This 'year' is long term im talking about day/week trader's moving on.

Do you not think the sp may have fallen, as the traders are taking profits ahead of month end? Possibly some others moving, or spreading, investment to tambo also? Quite often the short term sp movement has nothing to do with longer term needs or fundamentals.

Hi everyone,

Why such anxiety over the SP? This is a long term play and the ultimate end game will be a buy out by a big oil and gas player. Simple as that. As long as the fundamentals stay and the management of fog is roughly acceptable then you do not need to fret. Treat any dip as an opportunity to top up and tuck your shares away until a day when buyout is announced.

It doesn't work like that with a small explorer. We will get bought out before the project goes commercial. So the sp is likely to be around the current level to maybe 30p and then will get a big offer and overnight go up to what ever they agree. It may well be above£1 depending on what fog will accept and what the results show between now and then. Its just a matter of timing whether you miss the boat or not. At then other end of the scale there are lot of fog ticket holders who have been waiting for cast off for years and years. Check the Cove energy story for a similar small cap set up that ended in a billion dollar buy out.

I don't really post much, but have been in Fog for years and came over from Cove Energy following John Craven. I remember with Cove the end came about quite quickly when it happened. It came after a very clearly fanastic drilling campaign.It would not surprise me to see some moves during 2024. A bit like dominoes stacked up, we seem to be getting towards the right point now. The prospect we have here is so undeniably massive and needed that I could see it being a rush when offers come and not necessarily straight after news or some other big announcement etc. Watching patiently.

Sorry Hyd, but from past experience with these small cap players, its only ever the buyout that really moves it (Cove energy great example) even with commercially etc the effect is only temporary or small compared to the ultimate value. The buyout gives them the means to realise the asset, so its only that that will shift this despite necessary good news along the way re commercially.

I really doubt this will finish much above 8p. Ultimately the only piece of news that will move this permanently up is news of a pending buyout.

With the news we have had, high gas price etc, nothing else but a buyout will make a difference.

That said, i wish it went up up and up daily!

poods - you have a similar written style to BigOnes.......

think*

err.... I don't thing we really need to watch LNG exports at all, considering FOG will be long gone and sold way before then. For me this is interesting now in that we may get an offer anytime at all. What depends is whether FOG would have ears for an offer now with what is already known about the play, or if they want to wait a year for the next drill to test the other potential zone. After that though i think FOG will get taken out quite quickly. I was really hoping Origin would be granted 2 exploration wells this year under existing regs. If so i think we would have spiked higher. If you look at the shear volumes involved with this play, you are looking at a massive TO price even if discounted for risk and time.

Origin will have one*

My understanding of this is it could be swift, as gov preparation can be made on the back of the draft report (which is another function of a draft). A moratorium is a on/off switch put in by those in power and can be turned off or 'un-paused' as soon as those in power can convene and make a decision. In the Uk, this would be when parliament next sits as far as i am aware - not sure of the equivalent process in NT/Aus. New regs for development and operation will be a way away, but as others as said in the past their is nothing to stop them (in the interim) re-allowing current regs for exploration that have previously been adhered to. Hence there would be no particular delay to restarting drilling should it be green flagged What is unknown is what has been put in place behind the scenes to trigger on a lifting of the moratorium. I know much has been made of Origin having 'no plans to drill this year', but (quite obviously) there can be no official line other than this until something shifts in the politics. Plans can be made on changing circumstances and prospective plans can be analysed with respect to specific forecast scenarios coming to fruition - this is basic business operation. There is an operation research technique called a 'decision tree', which has many decision points and uncertainty point with multiple branches coming out as a results. Origin will have on as will the politicians. We happen to be awaiting the result of an uncertainty point right now for the explorers, which also happens to be a decision point for the politicians.