Member Info for merloid

Needs to be remembered that if he buys lots cheaply, he can pay more to buy out the rest as his stack has cost so little and his average takeover price will be between the two.

It's needs an additional party to also try to bid to get fair price - such as happened with cove energy.

Jumped from around 10-20p to 70p with first offer and then more bidders appears, £1.95 Shell, £2.20, final sale was 240p ish. Remember shareholders get to vote on accepting a takeover.

That's the type of scenario to get fair value.

I would definitely be looking at well over a billion to get near fair value, but it will need more wells. Hence the recent raise really was a positive.

I think all this progress is good. Ultimately for a fair buyout price, Fog had to appear capable of getting to small scale production and being able to last as a company. This all brings that closer. Will we get a buyer? Unknown, obviously, but the pieces are being positioned now, whether we agree with the specific decisions or not.

Wow, my autocorrect chose some interesting words there instead of what I thought I was typing!

Big companies buy when the first move is made. They would be buying with risk attached, but this is always the case. How much more with the next wells derisk it? Perhaps enough to get a decent price. For me it looks like the rise is enough to cover current plans, but not much more, so I can only assume the sale will hit soon after.

What this raise and ORRI does do is protect us from being squashed out of the game financially during the upcoming wells and pilot. This is why this raise was done now. In this game when you allow your piggyback to get too low the other companies watch you die slowly and get your stuff cheap. For me this is about defending Falcon's ability to exist. For me I'm happy with this raise for giving away very little when you work out the percentages. Its quite something that they are holding out for 22.5% in the remaining area. I wonder if they are leaving that out of it for now if they a worried they Tambo won't last the full game.

Really don't understand why anyone would think this is the time to have the last straw and sell their shares unless they had External reasons. Even at 10% there is huge value in this to falcon, let alone the fact that most of the claim remains at the previous level. The aim has to be not to dilute people and to stay in the game as a company.

I think the complaint people have about CEOs salary and winding out time to get paid is too inward looking. If you successfully sell falcon for a big profit or another small OG company, then the CEO will in most cases quickly be able to establish a new company, get investment on the basis of previous sucess and continue having such a salary in the future. He will benefit from the sale in the same way as any investor. If you want a close to home example look into John Craven post Gulf oil, dana petroleum, petroceltic and then post cove energy success into falcon and the private discover exploration . No issue getting more work for a sucessful CEO.

Have to say the recent move, I can only see ot as a positive. I also still think the chance of a buyout coming during the pilot scheme is significant and so it could be a very interesting period we enter into.

Sorry, but don't see 30 cents as a realistic scenario at all or something anyone should target reasonably. The prospect is simply too big and valuable for that. It's actually more likely with these takeover games that we either get a big fully representative number, or the company gets choked for funds and ground out of play. This is why patience is needed .... Still, even after years and years.

I actually think we are closer to this than many believe. It may take more years, but equally we could approach end game at any time. Personally I would be happy for them to farm down, do a placement etc, as the extra value further wells and flows bring outweigh dilution or a reduced stake.

No way I would take 30 cents. Patience is still needed here.

This is good news if placing is coming

Er.... this is why Directors have to declare shareholding when they cross certain thresholds, so it can be plainly seen what their interest is.

Yet more patience is needed here. I sense a few of you are approaching the ragged edge.

Cove mentioned due to the John Craven link. He ultimately was behind both cove and falcon. He indicated to me that this was bigger potentially than the sucess of cove.

I was in cove energy from near the start right through to sale and the big win. They started with somewhere 30% plus and by the time of sale had farmed down to around 10%. This is fairly standard and ok. The key is to get to the point of sale. So many companies fail or get squeezed. A farm out would likely be met with an uptick. I still think we will see a steady rise from here. I said before with cove the news of a bid came unexpectedly and not straight after news. Can easily get the same here, but you'll not see the execs openly musing a sale. It would weaken their hand.

Rubbish, If they sold at a premium he would be set to get millions. It would be several years salary up front. There is an incentive. You have to remember it does not then end there for these bosses. They can set up another small cap and start with the big salary all over again and will very likely get backers, as they would see confidence in a past success.

I think we will see the usual jump and drift back down, but no one should be concerned if that happens. FOG must appear able to participate in the pilot and can't stick a for sale flag in the air too enthusiastically, as we will be taken out cheap. An offer could come at any time after big news, but this will happen of its own event. This is why I will hold and also why I think some other will and hope this will allow to SP to settle higher than we see today. Will it be 30p, 20p or even 12p, I don't know, but the ultimate sale price I think should be well well well higher than these.

Sorry, but a business does have a limit to what cards they can show. I remember back in Cove energy's case, even though they had a target to sell the asset in one go, they had to look at least capable of raising funds to slowly bring a part of the asset directly to market to protect themselves from a low bid, or being bled financially out of the game.

Have to think that this is an early nod of good news. Pointless having a q and A just before news, as they wouldn't be able to say much. So have to expect news to drop in the coming week before the Q and A. Then it seems likely the Q and A is set to help capitalise on good news. Either that or if after bad news it would be more of a 'what is plan B' type Q and A which seems hugely less likely.

Hmm.

If we consider the flare roughly like a sphere. Looking at the measuring tool the empire one was around 100m across, fog is 70m ish. This would be about 1 third the volume of empire.

Obviously it maybe the sphere is too simplistic as a flaring mapping.

It's only an estimate for commercial flows and this is just one well. Not really a pinhead at all.

Investors in the main are not going to act on seeing a flare on a low res photo. That's even if they become aware of its existence. Some Investors act on what most of you have done, which is to buy in in advance on fundamentals and over risk reward of the project. Others will wait until news, some will wait until news is closer.

There's no overall liklihood dilution would lead to an SP drop at this stage, as the money raised would mean falcon are more financially secure, hence bolstering the SP or even driving it higher.

If you zoom out on the most recent ink, you can see its quite light cloud cover and only cover part of the site. I can't see what else it could be than a flare. However as I last said, it changes nothing. We just need to await news. I doubt if anyone here would sell ahead of news if there were no flare. So for me I have to say its largely irrelevant what we see on the sat photos , as there are to many variables