Member Info for merloid

Poods, where are you?

Meant to say I would have loved it

It's not a buy out in cash, that makes the difference, its a shares offer from a company that is also basically a one big play beetaloo pony.

The farm down may still deliver $500+ to the new merged company that we will still benefit from.

As I said earlier if you wanted 3, 4, 5 times the shares ratio in this type of deal fog would have had over 50% of the resultant shares and be the ones acquiring tbn. Not realistic in the slightest.

The deal means a lot of the upside is preserved, yet its reduced a bit, however:

Overall risk of failure is reduced

Barriers to investment are far less

NYSE shares split thing no longer needed and in effect done

Oligarch out

Yes inwould haveoved it if somehow we could have stayed in the game, got a big offer before the next phase kicked off and required fog to reduce its interest to zero again. However that was a long shot with a lot of risk of it going wrong. The merits of this deal needs some balanced consideration

I also think a lot of us chose to remain invested in falcon rather than move to tbn and so the idea of suddenly being tbn doesn't sit well. However I am trying to consider what tbn becomes as a result of the merger -its quite a different beast that we are now part of with this deal. Maybe they could have renamed it Falcamboran ....

I think the issue is you collectively are treating this as a cash buy out when it is in fact a shares offer/merger. You can't apply absolute value to this as if it were a buy out, because true potential is yet to be realised by the merged company formed. I think somewhere below I indicated that had the shares ratio been 0.01 instead of 0.00687 fog would represent 40% of the merged company. There is no way that would sit at all with tbn. If you are talking 30c+ etc you would be looking at a ratio that would have seen fog representing 50-60% of the merged shareholding, I.e. fog would have been acquiring tbn effectively. Is that even vaguely realistic? At all? Yet that's the value you are demanding for fog in such a scenario.

Yes it's an arbitrage opportunity. However, as you say there are factors at play meaning it may not come off.

Out of interest I was wondering what would be acceptable to 'us' if tbn offered a similar deal with a better ratio. We're are getting a 0.00687 ratio and this means fog shareholder will own about 27% of the combined company. Would 0.01 have been ok? That would up the ownership to about 40%. I'm mindful that deals cut both ways and the higher the ratio offered the harder that would be for tbn holders to approve.

I think as well, reflecting on this, that we need to get our head around that we are not part of what tambo was, but move to be something considerably enhanced. Together we are a far simpler prospect for investment or acquisition. The extreme upside has been chopped a bit, but there is still very large upside and I don't necessarily agree that large return is years away, as things can move very fast if offers get made in this business. The big thing for me is that the risk of getting squashed out of the game is now far lower than it was with this new position.

I don't think that is correct at all. This is a shares offer deal, not a cash per share deal. The price has to track tamboran's sp from here on. Fog is still trading and the deal fixes the tambo shares per fog share to 0.00687 . If tambo goes up and fogs price does not the deal would allow you to effectively buy future tambo shares at a discount to the tambo sp.

So if tambo goes up and up, your still going to get the same number of tambo shares in this deal. Fog sp will move to match.

Nothing is sold yet - it has to be put to a shareholder approval event. That's how these things work. You can vote against it if you wish.

If a bad deal, surely the shareholders can reject it when its put to them? Unless some one has a controlling stake we don't know about.

Fog's SP surely has to now be tied to the tamboran price going forward does it not? From my understanding the deal fixes the amount of tamboran shares we receive for each fog share to the relative price of fog and tamboran yesterday.

Therefore if this deal is still in play in 6 months - I'm still not convinced a third party won't break cover and offer cash, but anyway.. then it's the price of tamboran on the day of acquisition that determines how much was get, rather than the 11p currently mentioned in the RNS.

Please correct me if I am wrong, as the RNS is not exactly precise imo.

Out of interest what were people hoping the share price maybe in the end game for tamboran? $100+ or more I would guess.

Amazed its so cheap

This is the way of a small cap explorer. None of them ever get to keep the whole asset. Take Cove energy - massive success, couple of billion dollars in the end. However this was on 10% of the asset in the end after several fund raises. They have to farm down to get the investment. I'm amazed we are this far on and falcon still have 22.5% of most of the pie. You have to expect not every footstep to be forwards and TBN have had more issues than any of us would have liked. However - the pathway is now set way better than almost any time I remember.

Likely ripple effect from Trumps threat of tariffs and then the latest position on gasa. It all increases uncertainty and that makes investments (especially speculative ones) harder to make/hold

This is rediculous, CEOs won't have core working hours, they'd be no such requirement and so (as frustrating as it may be) he'd be free to do various activities during what most people would call normal working hours.

It's getting a bit crazy on this normally fine and calm message board of late.

I would say that this is either a failure on the day the company grinds to nothing, or a success on the day of a good sale. Until that point is reached We are really just still on the journey.

Any given drill result is never the end of the story here and also only a single jigsaw piece of driving share price.

Big energy companies look to make tax, investment and income plans decades in advance and so there will naturally be those interested in falcons share of a long term development project.

The salary of execs is part of this game and was always on show. Ive seen many a company fail that paid its execs to the end. As sour as it might become, you have to suck it up if you want this type of investment opportunity to exist in the first place

Large companies makes strategic moves for years and decades in advance.

Look at take overs of the past to see this. Again pointing to cove energy - they were sold in 2012 and the LNG is only just getting to the point of being monetised I'm the near term by those that hold interest.

It's completely normal for a big gap between sale and a full income stream to flow to whomever buys or is involved at that later time.

Why would there ever be a sale??? Except for the fact that the area is being gradually proved up and eventually major players will want to buy the asset. If Sheffield waits forever the train will leave, same with any other potentially interested party.

This is how small exploration companies succeed and how large companies can often avoid early exploration and the financial and PR risk involved in duds and misses