What are the odds........?28 Oct 2020 20:32
So if you've been here longer than a few weeks, you'll have probably heard a few phrases being repeated, phrases that are all too often seen on AIM investment boards.....
"This is a once in a lifetime opportunity"
"There will never be another GGP"
etc etc
And while it can sound a little bit rampy, after doing the math (numbers are fun) there is an element of truth to it in our case.
Its said that 1 in 50 explorers will find a viable deposit, and that only 1 in 25 of those will make it to production. So a junior explorer has a 1 in 1250 chance of finding a deposit and actually mining it. So firstly, congratulations, to the LTH especially, who were banking on a 0.08% chance of success, and found it here!
but it gets better, you can calculate the odds of finding such a discovery, during a gold bull run, and that reduces the odds to 1 in 6250, or a 0.016% chance
And what are the odds on this happening twice, if Scallywag hits (and we know that it will be mined and processed in similar fashion to Havieron if its commercially viable) So what are the odds of a junior explorer, valued at £3m, finding two viable deposits, taking them all the way to production, and doing so during a gold bull run?
1 in 39,062,500, or 0.00000256% chance .
Now we humble investors, even the more active traders among us might indulge in 50-100 companies a year, and thats pushing it, so over a 20-30 year trading career we might dabble in 3000 companies, so we would perhaps have to trade for 2 lifetimes just to see another Havieron, and another 13,000 lifetimes to find a company that strikes twice.
Now doesn't that put into perspective why GGP really is "a once in a lifetime opportunity", and not one to be taken for granted.