Rant time25 Jan 2021 17:45
Ok, so ive been inundated all day on twitter from people dm’ing me “are you still confident in GGP?”
This is frustrating because a) it shows that there are a lot invested here purely because they are reading other investors comments (instead of their own research) and b) because they are getting skiddish over what is quite frankly a “normal week” on AIM.
So lets clear this up, I think its fair to say on their behalf that the LTH’s here, Me, Paddy, Spy, Hydro, Tom, Bamps, Micky, TMT and a handful of others DO NOT care about what the sp does today, this week, this month, even this quarter, because we are invested in the fundamentals, and the endgame. We have researched to the n’th degree and run over every possible way this will play out over the next 1-3yrs, and guess what, all scenarios come with a bigger price tag. This is why you’ll never see one of the above mentioned names ever posting “where do you think GGP will be next Monday” we just dont care.
If you do your own research you will see that even the worst case scenario’s lead to an sp of between 60p-80p.
What could go wrong?....
- none of the other targets come up with anything (possible but unlikely)
- gold price drops (again, poss but v unlikely)
- placing (go for it, im up for more drilling!)
Hav is only 7-10m oz (unlikely and sad, but possible)
Taking all of the above into account, you still have around 60p per share..... if it all happened.
What could go right (starting from 60p base)
- Hav is 15m oz (add 10-20p)
- AISC is extremely low (add 5-15p)
- Gold price goes to $2500-$3000 (add lots)
- Other targets come up trumps (pick a number and add)
- buyout offer (happy days, early payday)
The likelyhood is that 1-3 of the above will happen.
So us crusty LTH are quite happy to sit on our perches, knowing that statistically we are huge favourites in this battle, so long as we are patient.
The gold isn’t going anywhere, and neither are we, so stop asking.
P.s.......... topped up £160k at 26.8p today, thanks suckers!