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CAIRO, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Global oil major BP said on Sunday it had started production from the second development phase of the Raven field offshore Egypt.

BP said in a statement that the new wells are set to produce approximately 220 billion cubic feet of gas and 7 million barrels of condensate. (Reporting by Menna Alaa El-Din and Mohamed Ezz)

Sorry don’t Think Warren Buffet will be buying,it’s a “ Fool “ item.

But I just could resist for the headline

Billionaire investor and head of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett recently piled into oil shares, just as BP (LSE: BP.) has been hitting the headlines.

News emerged that Elliott Management has built up a stake in BP worth close to £3.8bn. The hedge fund is urging the company to offload some of its green energy goals and return its focus to high-profit oil and gas. Did somebody say “Drill, baby, drill“?

Warren Buffett might not be such an open activist. But he’s just put another $409m of Berkshire money into Occidental Petroleum. Berkshire now owns a whopping 28% of the $45bn oil giant. If he invested in the UK stock market, I can’t help thinking he might be eyeing up BP’s valuation today.

Falling profits

The BP share price has jumped 6.5% since the Elliott Management news broke. But a 61% fall in fourth-quarter profits reported on 11 February might not exactly make it look like a screaming oil buy.

For the 2024 full year, rival Shell posted revenue of $284bn while BP hit $189bn. That puts Shell 50% ahead on the revenue front, yet its market capitalisation is more than double BP’s. And Shell’s adjusted EBITDA for 2024 came in 73% ahead of BP’s.

That’s based on a single snapshot in a volatile market at a time of economic change. But on this, admittedly simplistic, basis it doesn’t look like BP has done as well for its shareholders as Shell.

A person claiming to be familiar with Elliott has said that analysts believe BP is currently destroying value.

Cheap oil

We’re looking at a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for BP of 10 for 2025, with analysts expecting it to dip to around 8.4 in 2026. Shell is on similar forward valuations, of nine dropping to around 8.1. With decent dividend yields, those could be tempting valuations. I think the outlook might favour Shell right now, but a bit of fresh activism could change that.

One observer, MarketScreener, even thinks Elliott might have a merger between BP and Shell in mind. It’s a sector with no competitive advantages between product offerings — oil is oil, gas is gas. It’s possibly the industry in which consolidation makes the most sense.

If we’re talking of potentially cheap oil stocks, we can’t ignore the stuff itself. And that’s a possible downside, as President Trump’s hopes of getting the oil taps gushing could send the price of a barrel down. It’s currently a bit over $70, and has been falling so far in 2025.

Investor considerations

The Elliott interest could get BP on a more profitable footing in the short term. And though it can be a politics-driven industry, a single presidency might not mean much in the decades ahead. Whatever we might think about the current US administration’s take on unfettering the oil business, it’s Trump’s final turn at the wheel.

The Warren Buffett approach has to be all about the long-term future of oil, and he’s bullish. I’m less certain and a lot less knowledgable, so I’ll sit it out and just enjoy

I’m sure Mark knows he over stepped the Mark.

Hence either a 3 month self imposed ban or the site banned him.

There is never a need for abuse.

Difference in views on BP and oil are useful in making you examine your position.

The more different views the better in my view.

My position is after about 3 months it’s time to invite him back,and expect him to

accept that any abuse in any direction is wrong.

Those who don’t want to read him can filter.

He in turn can filter anyone he wishes

But that only a personal opinion and I don’t expect all to agree.

It’s all of yours board ,not mine so you decide what kind of board you want.

It’s not up to me

Thanks Jakers.

It’s went a bit better than I thought.

Was worried there might just be me and then the odd other person.

Hopefully Mark still peeks in from time to time

This is a personal message to Markgo.

Please come back I miss your posts.

You were here for the bad times and should be here for any better times.

We all have the same right to post.( as long as it’s not abusive).

I know some had differences with Mark.

If you don’t want to see his input you can filter.

Let’s not descend into abuse again, because if you need to do that,you have already lost the argument.

It’s all our board and has been busy lately,so I’m sure we have room for Mark.

That’s 4 days since results day and no buybacks.

Think now it’s waiting to be announced in new Strategy

OSLO, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Norwegian oil exploration and production company Aker BP, built from a series of mergers and acquisitions in the last decade, has opportunities for further consolidation on Norway's continental shelf, its top shareholder said on Friday.

Aker BP produced over 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in 2024, up from just a few thousand daily barrels in 2013, and seeks to boost its output to over 500,000 boepd in 2028 by developing its current resources.

Norway's second largest oil company behind state-controlled Equinor could also continue to incorporate assets from rivals, said Oeyvind Eriksen, the CEO of Aker ASA which owns 21.16% of Aker BP's shares.

"There are a few opportunities that could be of interest for Aker BP. If and when they are for sale we would consider a possible transaction," Eriksen told Reuters, adding the group would look for quality assets, not fields with declining output.

"There are a lot of old, legacy assets for sale which are not of interest," he said.

Aker BP CEO Karl Johnny Hersvik told Reuters on Wednesday the company wanted assets that allow it to do things better, faster or with lower costs, and that opportunities appeared to be emerging for transactions at attractive prices.

WP

At the time of selling off their Russian stake and buying Rosneft.

The spare cash was split 50:50 between debt payments ( after oil spill) and buybacks ( to return money to shareholders).

Since much of the buybacks were over £5 .

That worked well ( not).

Hopefully they do better for the shareholders however they use the money

Murray basically said the only route now would be to sell.

It would not come back onto the balance sheet.

In Horizon, the net-zero scenario, global gas demand would need to begin declining this decade for net zero in 2050. This would begin to affect LNG, with demand peaking in the early 2030s. This results in existing infrastructure operating at low utilization rates as demand falls faster than the natural decline rate of the assets.

Actual global economic and political developments and demand for fossil fuels, including LNG, will certainly be somewhere between these scenarios. Currently, the world appears closest to the Archipelagos model, with energy and trade security at the top of buyers' minds.

Oil Demand

Shell’s scenarios also include estimates of peak oil demand, depending on the scenario. But in all three models, electrification of road transport is the main reason for the world reaching peak oil demand, which is after 2030 in Archipelagos and Surge and before 2030 in the net-zero Horizon model.

However, demand for oil is not going away, and it will be there in the 22nd century, Shell says, noting that in Horizon, oil is used solely for petrochemicals by 2100.

Shell also stressed in its report that global oil demand is likely to grow by 3?5 million barrels per day (bpd) into the early 2030s, with a long but slow decline after that as petroleum remains an affordable and convenient fuel, particularly in transport, and an important feedstock for the petrochemical industry.

Finally, Shell highlights that continued oil and gas investment will be needed in all three scenarios, including Horizon.

“Upstream investment is currently around $600 billion a year. This will be required for decades to come as the rate of depletion of oil and gas fields is two to three times the potential future annual declines in demand,” Shell said.

The supermajor, along with the other European oil and gas giants such as BP and Equinor, has recently announced a return to the basics, targeting to boost hydrocarbon production and scaling back investments and targets in the renewable energy sector. The pivot has not been only dictated by the heightened energy security and affordability issues since 2022, but also by Big Oil’s charm offensive to offer compelling returns to shareholders.

The world’s top LNG trader, Shell, expects global demand for liquefied natural gas to jump at least through 2030 in all scenarios it has modeled in a new energy security report.

The 2025 Energy Security Scenarios, which the supermajor says are not expressions of Shell’s strategy or business plan, show that LNG demand is set for significant growth in the near term in all three scenarios.

Most analysts expect that by 2030, LNG demand will be fueled by growing consumption of LNG in Europe to offset the loss of Russian pipeline gas supply and ensure enough gas in storage for winter heating seasons, as well as rising demand in Asian economies, to replace part of the coal-fired power generation and to use more gas in industrial production.

Supply, on the other hand, is also set to grow, especially after 2027—thanks to major new expansion projects in the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, Qatar, and to new projects launching in the world’s biggest exporter, the U.S.

Shell’s Three Scenarios of the Future of Energy

In all three of Shell’s scenarios, LNG shows significant growth in the near term, fuelled by ongoing projects in Qatar and the USA, reaching around 550 million tonnes per year (mtpa) by the end of the decade.

“Divergence between the scenarios is a function of project timelines up until about 2030, but after that, the scenarios diverge significantly as the different scenario drivers take hold,” the supermajor said in the report.

Shell has modeled its new energy security expectations with the rise of AI in mind. The three scenarios are dubbed Surge, Archipelagos, and Horizon and reflect different economic, geopolitical, and energy transition assumptions for the near future and the long term.

In Surge, Shell assumes that AI technologies take root and lead to a period of stronger economic growth and a surge in energy demand globally.

The Archipelagos scenario assumes that the security mindset that is very visible today becomes entrenched worldwide, with national self-interest prevailing. In this scenario, Shell expects global sentiment to shift away from managing emissions towards resource, border, and trade security.

Finally, the Horizon scenario assumes that the world reaches net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and delivers a global average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100

Surge is the most bullish scenario for energy and LNG demand and supply growth, with LNG supply continuing to grow, reaching 700 mtpa. Most of the additional supply would come from new projects in North America, some of which will involve new field production and new LNG facilities. LNG’s market share of overall global gas demand would reach around 25% by 2050, up from around 14% in 2024, Shell says.

Heightened focus on energy security in the Archipelagos scenario will have a net effect of a well-balanced and stable LNG market throughout the 2030s, plateauing at around 600 mpta.

WP

The FT has been firing of articles for a while looking for a take over.

I just assumed it was another disgruntled shareholder trying to get their shareholding back above water.

If only we could all do that.

Can you imagine how many Happy would have written ( no criticism intended)

BP has kicked off its next deepwater oil and gas project in the US Gulf by signing up a Singapore company to develop the floating production system.

Seatrium has secured a memorandum of understanding from BP Exploration & Production covering the Tiber floating production unit (FPU). Under this arrangement, Seatrium will provide engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) of an FPU designed to support the development of BP’s deepwater energy resources.

This FPU would be deployed over the Tiber oil field that is around 483 km southwest of New Orleans in the Keathley Canyon area.

Seatrium expects to convert this MoU into a firm contract following a final investment decision by BP for the full Tiber development, anticipated later in 2025. For now, the company can begin the initial phases of the EPCC work.

This new agreement builds on Seatrium and BP’s partnership on the Kaskida FPU, which reached final investment decision in 2024. Kaskida will be installed in deep waters about 402 km south-west of New Orleans in the Keathley Canyon area.

Seatrium said it would used the lessons learned and technological advancements achieved from the ongoing Kaskida project within the Tiber FPU, including the group’s proven topsides single-lift integration methodology.

Hi Jakers you are probably right.

I’ve never been involved in any of that side of things

Jakers

I think there is a derivative called sneakily build a share in a company before announcing yourself.

I’m sure it’s got a technical name,but I’ve seen it now in several companies

Elliott Management, which has about $70 billion in assets, is due to publish a regulatory filing in the U.S. on Friday to disclose its quarterly positions in listed companies. ($1 = 0.8004 pounds) (Reporting by Yamini Kalia and Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Jane Merriman)

One of the reports I read suggested that the stake was made up of shares and other financials ( options derivatives etc).

So maybe he is still below 3 percent.

But has effectively control of more.

This appears to be the modern way as it doesn’t move sp as much.

Time will tell ,as always

Well that’s big enough to get my interest.

And obviously more importantly I think it might just concentrate minds at board level.

It’s time to step up and show they are more than just cardboard cutouts.

Have they got it in them ???

Https://www.rigzone.com/news/bp_reveals_discovery_offshore_egypt-12-feb-2025-179609-article/