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Once again we can understand the pause in the rise of the sp, by the number on here who have cashed in.

And who can blame them.

But it gives a suggestion of the broader market sentiment.

Looking at the share price graph, it would be easy to say that this rally does appear to have much much better foundations that the last couple.

Absent any major oil price drop a great set of results and who know where we can end up.

Demand destruction in US still to be found ( no matter how hard they look).

I’m feeling very positive.

But wonder how hard £6 will be to break.

Crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 4.383 million barrels for week ending October 13, according to The American Petroleum Institute (API), countering the large 12.940-million-barrel rise in crude inventories in the week prior, API data showed

Gasoline inventories fell this week by 1.578 million barrels, partially offsetting the 3.645 million barrel build in the week prior.

Distillate inventories also fell this week, by 612,000 barrels, on top of the 3.535-barrel draw in the week prior.

Cushing inventories rounded out the inventory losses this week with a 1.005 million barrels decline, after falling by 547,000 barrels last week, leaving an estimated 20.7 million barrels in stock—the lowest point since 2014.

Https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Across-The-Board-Crude-Oil-Products-Inventory-Draws-Send-Prices-Higher.html

“ There isn’t anything to “balance”. The job of a CEO of an energy company is to maximise the earnings of the energy company, within the rules set by governments”

And I wish they would wake up every morning with that thought in mind.

And how best they can serve us the shareholders

I’m sure this will get a reaction.

Some may even think it was the comedian Dave Allen who wrote it.

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https://www.ft.com/content/7bdddcd3-a997-48b7-9170-901915328121

It is unsurprising that BP is steadying the ship with reassurances of a commitment to stay on strategy (Report, October 12) while awaiting a replacement for its former chief executive, Bernard Looney. Less predictable, and surely the question on most investors’ lips now, is how any newly appointed leader will balance the need for improved returns while helping the world to transition to a new energy model.

The temptation for any incoming chief executive may be to switch to a strategy that delivers shorter-term wins.

Abandoning the BP purpose of “reimagining energy for people and our planet” initiated by Lord Browne in the late 1990s would be a grave mistake. BP has a strong culture and the new chief executive must tune in to that.

Look no further than John Sculley (president at PepsiCo before he joined Apple) stepping into Steve Jobs’ shoes and entirely failing to understand Apple’s raison d’être.

As the eyes of the world watch the energy transition unfold over the coming decade, BP must stay true to its purpose — balancing shareholder needs with societal expectations to stand firmly on the right side of history.

Dave Allen

How do our highly paid oil analysts not remember that refinery utilisation being down is not bearish, but related to the maintenance they told us was coming only 2 weeks ago.

And less units running means less crude used.

It’s almost as if they had an agenda.

The market was also hit by bearish indicators like a massive build in U.S. crude inventories, much higher than analyst expectations, which rose to 424.2 million barrels last week. Lower refining utilization rates and higher net imports contributed to this bearish outlook. Meanwhile, U.S. crude output reached a record 13.2 million barrels per day, exacerbating the supply glut.

Clearly none of us are comfortable with the why the sp is doing so well.

But from an investing point of view.

It’s under 3 weeks till results day.

And a positive set of results with a relatively high starting sp could get really interesting

Evening Gingy

So far it’s not involving a major oil producer.

That can change at a moment unfortunately.

There is risk premium now in the oil price.

As Happy said yesterday if this doe’s escalate the US are going to look rather stupid with what they have done this year with the “Strategic Reserve”.

At the very least would expect thing to go another week or to before any attempt to calm thing down start.

So during that time escalation to include more countries is possible.

If one other Arab country gets dragging in anything is possible.

Some American Senators already want to use it as an excuse to bomb Iran.

This is clearly a dangerous development.

I hope that things can calm down a bit, but not very hopeful.

When you poke a bear with a stick expect to make it angry.

Neither side can claim to be perfect, but one side clearly in the wrong at present.

For the first week of October, the EIA reported a gasoline inventory decline, to the tune of 1.3 million barrels. It compared with a build of 6.5 million barrels for the previous week.

Gasoline production last week averaged 9.7 million barrels daily, which compared with 8.8 million bpd for the last week of September.

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Moves-Down-On-Massive-Inventory-Build.html

I think if this does go through,and I expect it to be a go.

Then consolidation will be the name of the game.

The little companies will all be swallowed up.( this deal makes it easier to value them at a time when the big companies have a lot of cash)

I also expect that Exxon will take the decision to take their foot of the production growth pedal as they have achieved their production target by acquisition.

This may lead to the beginning of the end of production growth for all,and a much more stable production plateau.

Costs will probably also drop if it’s just drilling to maintain production.

Wonder how BP will play this.( will we be part of any consolidation)

It could be a real game changer for the US

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Shale-Consolidation-Could-Put-A-Permanent-Lid-On-Oil-Output.html

Hi Pang

It’s great when you go on holiday and your shares perform well enough while you are away to pay for it.

Last time it happened to me it only took about a week after I came back to loose it all back.

But not this time.

This time it’s a keeper !

Hi Spights

Thanks for your lovely messages.

Like all good things the end is in sight, tomorrow is the last day.

But think the the poor stressed me who came on holiday is a much more relaxed fellow going home

WP

I think the 2020 message was poorly understood because of all the other announcements along side it.

If they had simply said we intend to high end all our production and sell down the worst performing so that what is left can be invested in , with an end result that what is left will actually produce more profit.

Which was actually the message they tried to give.

It might have been received better.

However the message that was really heard was we will produce 40% less crude.

The renewables are a separate issue.

Distillate numbers are good ( diesel and jet fuel)

Diesel show’s economy still ok,jet fuel also a positive for economy.

Was expecting a crude build due to maintenance,but not as big as that.

Gasoline a worry, as should be making less due to maintenance, would like to know how much was made, also imports or exports numbers.

One week should not make a panic, but it always does.

It’s only 4 weeks since it all kicked off.

It just seems longer.

BP HR were never the fastest at anything.

Even when you were desperate it still always took at least 2 months.

I imagine it might all work just a little faster at that level.

Think in an ideal world they would like some visibility on who by results day.

We watch and wait.

Yes I know it’s Barclays but some good points noted