Member Info for meoryou

Seems a bit dramatic a 3% drop.

When

“ In gasoline, the authority estimated an inventory draw of 1.2 million barrels for the week to April 12, which compared with a modest build of 700,000 barrels for the previous week”

“ In middle distillates, the authority estimated an inventory decline of 2.8 million barrels for the week to April 12. This compared with a build of 1.7 million barrels for the previous week.”

My simple arithmetic says 4 million drop in products,

Against a 2.7 million build in crude.

So total inventory went down

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Moves-Down-on-Crude-Inventory-Build.html

Https://splash247.com/woodside-energy-taps-argeo-for-calypso-survey-off-trinidad/

Worth a read

Particularly noted

“ Sustaining Production

Birrell doesn’t rule out exploring for more oil and gas, or acquiring companies for their reserves. That’s a change in tone for BP, which under former Chief Executive Officer Bernard Looney set out a plan to radically embrace decarbonization and renewable energy. ”

Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-16/bp-focuses-on-familiar-turf-in-gulf-of-mexico-as-rivals-push-new-oil-frontiers

Https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-begins-oil-production-from-major-new-platform-offshore-azerbaijan.html

Hi Spights

Promise will pack some sun and drop off over England and Wales on way back.

It’s interesting seeing how much the 2 granddaughters have changed since holiday a year ago.

Clued

My purely personal view is there will still be some value attached to BPs stake.

I assume politicians and media,will crusade against BP ,but the amount of money there is bigger than some not very small countries have,so think BP will come out one day with something..

Unless the west put Putin into a position of retaliation if west take Russian assets in the west.

It’s a big game of poker, with unfortunately many lives at stake

Morning Mark

All fine here in Spain, a little to warm so enjoying the shade.

Was having a little think.

Last week or two several on here sold, which is a decision based for each individual on a lot of variables,entry price ,need for cash etc.

However even at a reasonable sp by recent history,there were plenty of buyers to take the other side of the trade.( obviously part of that is due to the buybacks)

There are more headlines now than for a while about investing in energy.

I would suspect the message you would get if asking for advice on diversifying your shares would currently be are you in energy.

That’s a different message from the last 3 years.

Even saw someone say energy was the new hedge against inflation or recession,as people still need oil.

Interesting times.

Ps hope you also are well

Darkesh

My take was that net debt only increased due to expenses being front end loaded in the fiscal year.

Ie mainly a build in working capital which will at least partly unwind during the year.

I think they are very sure of their cash flow as they increased the distribution of excess capital to 80% from 60%.

As far as oil price is concerned a price above $100 is bad in the long run as it encourages more replacement by renewables .

I’m sure if I got it wrong someone will tell me

Https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Uncertainty-Drives-Investors-to-Oil-Stocks.html

Harmonica

I understand that.

And up till now that has been a benefit every time the sp,dropped again below £5.

However if someone does look at taking over BP a low sp, and less shares makes it much easier to do.

I think the landscape has changed, and it’s now time to defend £5

Agreed it’s a very low bar to hold him to.

But it’s just a start.

Too many times £5 has been normal for only a few weeks or months.

I believe the fundamentals support higher.

If we get a take over sp will be way higher.

If Murray is to defend against a take sp has to be a lot higher.

£5 for now.

As Cong said yesterday £7.77 sound good

It’s just when we get there.

When high £5 becomes normal again I will want £6.

At these oil prices it should not be so hard to defend sp.

Perhaps I should have said for now £5 has to be seen as a measure of success.

In previous rounds of buybacks recently they have paused buybacks at times.

I would like to see them dropping volume of buybacks daily by about 25%.

Just to have some extra volume to use if we need to defend the £5.

Think £5 has now to be a measure of our new CEOs success going forward.

As long as he can keep sp above he looks like a success.

( obviously £6 would be even better,but little steps first)

Would appear for now that the risk premium on oil due to the Middle Easr has been dropped.

Hopefully wiser heads prevail .

Bid premium looks like it’s also gone currently for BP despite some press over the weekend.

Several commentators seem to think BP may now be in play.

For now we can just focus on the fundamentals ( which are not too bad).

Only important thing

Hold £5 at any cost

Https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2024/04/15/why-europe-should-ensure-it-does-not-drive-away-oil-and-gas-companies/

Https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/possible-bp-bid-highlights-london-for-sale-scenario-53812600

Nice end to the week

It’s never wrong to take a profit

Nice to have a wee take over story to run and run.

It doesn’t matter they said no,it will inspire lots of match making,which could lead anywhere( hopefully at the very least to higher prices)

Unfortunately the Middle East looks like it will deteriorate very soon.

From a poor start point to.

Think you would have to be very brave to short oil currently.

Https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/possible-bp-bid-highlights-london-sale-scenario-2024-04-12/

Https://www.republicworld.com/business/bp-takeover-is-both-appealing-and-daunting/