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That’s the point I was trying to make Nick - I don’t know Matt but he has my full trust and confidence. I trust my intuition and he comes across as a thoroughly decent human being. I’m not particularly wealthy but have £250k on the line here and therefore a reasonable amount to lose if I’m wrong. As you will see across these boards and Telegram Matt has a huge amount of support despite the disappointing share price performance. I have full confidence he will look after us little guys and has our best interests at heart but it’s understandable that investors with a high average price are a little worried. I know this will come good in time and please tell Matt to keep up the good work. We all know the share price performance doesn’t match the tremendous numbers the business is pushing out.
MM is already overly exposed to THG - majority of his wealth, his job and reputation. It doesn’t make any sense to concentrate that risk further by buying more in a take private transaction? Unless you are suggesting he will be given free shares?
Unless you know Matt Moulding presuming he will screw shareholders to line his own pockets is a tad presumptuous. I don’t see anything in his history to suggest he is that type of bloke? If anything he has been generous and made a lot of money for his investors and made a lot of everyday employees into millionaires. He is a man from humble beginnings who has more wealth than he can spend in a lifetime and clearly has a close family with his mother and brother (Nick) fiercely protective. From my perspective he gets the benefit of the doubt and has my full support.
I thought volatility was supposed to benefit CMC? I purchased a speculative position at 230p thinking that the recent volatility might move the share price higher factoring in the share price has been decimated recently but clearly I was wrong.
I think that’s one plausible option but I’ve got my fingers crossed for a better outcome. I would rather hold than sell for 596p per share so personally speaking I would still be unhappy (even if the majority of shareholders see that as an acceptable outcome).
They can wait as long as they want but ultimately the board of directors and/or shareholders have the option to reject any deal. The views on this board are largely irrelevant so it will be down to MM and large shareholders to decide on the best route forward. The people on this board suggesting offers of <£5 a share are having a giggle. In reality £5 to £6 will be the starting point for negotiations if they are interested in selling the full company. I think the more likely outcome is a sale of one or more divisions and some kind of restructuring around THG Ingenuity (whether SB exercise the option or not).
What people aren’t factoring in is that the SoftBank option is for what like a 20% holding of the business meaning they would still be a minority shareholder in THG Ingenuity overall. In a minority deal you apply a discount for lack of control which could be somewhere in the region of 10% to 20% compared to the value for a full acquisition.
That’s absolute nonesense - MM will want the price high as he’s one of the largest shareholders in THG and has a large proportion of his net worth invested here. Unless he acquires extra shares there is no benefit to selling the business on the cheap.
That’s a very strong accusation to make given MM has no history of screwing shareholders or his employees - in fact completely the opposite. He’s made everyday employees millionaires and has a track-record of looking after shareholders/investors. Don’t believe everything you read in the Daily Mail - he’s a northern grafter with strong morals and family values. Do you think he will tarnish his reputation for a few extra dollars when he already has more wealth than most people can spend in a lifetime? Put down the crack pipe and engage the brain my friend.
The rough math would suggest £8 minimum in my view. Nothing has changed from the IPO at £5 and factoring in a 60% premium (for a full acquisition) gets you to £8. If SoftBank consider THG Ingenuity as critical infrastructure that gets you closer to £10 as the asset is strategically valuable to them whereas PE is just a combination of asset re-rating/growth + leverage to get an IRR in the teens so they can cream a performance fee.
No, I think the joker in the pack is SoftBank want THG Ingenuity bad. I think MM is just making sure there are no dirty tricks and that they don’t try to renegotiate the option in a way that is detrimental to THG shareholders. I think the private equity interest is two-fold and that the likely route forward is a sale of one or more of the business divisions ex THG Ingenuity. If they could acquire the whole business on the cheap they would definitely go for that (more plan E or F in my view), but I don’t think MM would entertain a low offer for the combined business and sell the Crown Jewels for a knockdown valuation. If you value THG Ingenuity properly you could be looking at a £10+ valuation for the combined business which sounds crazy based on the current share price.
There is some guff on this post - SHOE and Primark are awful businesses. It’s rare to see good brick and mortar retail companies and those that are usually trade at huge multiples - look at Costco. The online market will continue to grow and take market share from a dying high street, which is in terminal decline and at a competitive disadvantage in terms of cost and flexibility. I think Primark will survive a few more years as it’s popular and convenient for the great unwashed who sleep in the high street and have a spending limit of £4.50.
That might be relevant if you were paying £3+ a share on Boohoo or £40+ on ASOS. The short-term headwinds in both companies are pretty clear and have been flagged in recent updates. Does Christmas 2021 have any impact on where both companies will be in 2 or 3 years time - no impact whatsoever. Buying a stock with an investment horizon less than 2 years is called gambling unless you are running some type of quant model or algorithm. Also factoring in the borrow cost and unlimited downside to shorting it’s going to be a losing trade for the majority that choose to play that game? Look at Wirecard which was a huge fraud and the movement in the share-price for the 10 years prior to the collapse. In Boohoo you have a profitable company with no debt and a strong U.K. online proposition - if you short that kind of company in the medium and long-term you go bust nearly 100% of the time.
The lack of knowledge on this board is quite amusing and suggesting that Marshall Wace have a short position because they have inside knowledge of problems (on returns) is a criminal offence that could result in an unlimited fine or custodian sentence. Do you think some super wealthy hedge fund executive is going to risk that to make a few quid on Boohoo? It’s also libel against Marshall Wace as you are suggesting that they have no ethical standards and engage in activities that are illegal.
The investment approach of Marshall Wace also uses quantitative and systematic approaches so the reason they are short boohoo might have nothing to do with the company fundamentals. There is a possibility the short is a pairs trade or they have some other offsetting risk exposure so the exposure is not necessarily expressing a clear view on Boohoo.
They might be increasing exposure because they want to keep the same exposure in monetary terms. For example, if they have been shorting down from £4 to £5 they would need a much larger exposure in % terms at £1ish to carry the same exposure in monetary terms.
The people on this board that have position and no interest in taking a position are either very sad people with no life or they are liars. If you really don’t like the stock then take a short position and that gives you the right to talk crap about the company. Stop trying to scare retail investors with your dumb campaigns of misinformation.
I agree would love to see THG Ingenuity sign Boohoo and help with the US and European operations. I think it would be a massive positive for Boohoo share-price and further validate THG Ingenuity. Also it would be a big positive for U.K. PLC to show that our best companies can still compete on the world stage. I’m hoping that T Rowe Price who are large shareholders across THG, Boohoo and ASOS are pushing this agenda. In order to compete on the world stage scale definitely helps and I believe some kind of consolidation between 2 or even 3 all of these companies could be a smart long-term strategy. At the moment I think all 3 are really undervalued, but THG probably has the largest upside based on blue sky thinking.