Member Info for Megla

At those oil prices premier would generate about $250m of FCF in 2021, add in the sale of Zama and net debt would finally fall to a level where Premier could consider shareholder returns.

Slift, why do you want shale companies to go bankrupt? All that happens is the debt gets reset, the dead wood gets chopped and they come back as a much leaner organisation with the same assets. All that really changes is the equity ownership. Better to have shale on life support type oil prices, with the their focus being on repairing the balance sheet when oil prices do rise to reasonable level next year.

BTFATH1 you really are a moron. Just because I don’t sing the praises of a company it doesn’t mean I’m short, but to be quite frank, I couldn’t care less what you think.

Show we where next years production guidance is 71-78k and I’ll stand corrected. If you could provide it both on an entitlement and working basis that would be great.

Tullow have zero choice than to sell assets, so timing is irrelevant, debt is about $1.4bln too high for a company that’s only going to be producing 65kbpd next year. The sooner they get the balance sheet under-control the better it’ll be for all stakeholders.

Market may be starting to price in some risk with the RBL redetermination. Not sure how long it’ll be before the creditors start making more demands, but if the company continues to drag its heels with getting the balance sheet back in shape then there’s a risk of a similar sort of scenario as Premier Oil.

If the rights issue/pacing is done at 15p per share, that’s roughly 2.6bln shares so 3.5bln in total. Where do you get the extra billion shares?

ARCM will definitely be involved in the equity, anyone can see that’s part of the plan.

Debt doesn’t reduce to $1.7bln, your missing the mark to market currency swaps and debt arrangement fees.

Will be interesting to see if your market cap prediction will be correct, personally I think you’re way of the mark, but time will tell.

Happy, all I’m saying is your posts could be construed as an attempt to wind up investors. Particularly when you cherry pick elements from other companies to compare against Premier, whilst ignoring the very real problems they face with low oil prices.

I’m very bullish on PMO’s prospects following the completion of the equity raise/refinancing, but only when that’s completed for obvious reasons.

Happy “I’m negative about PMO”

Why the interest then? Are you short the equity? Surely a better use of your time would be working out why BP are resorting to hybrid bonds to hide debt from the balance sheet.

Impossible to say as we don’t know how many shares will be in issue. Realistically, I’d go for a billion pound market cap by end of next year, so maybe 33p per share, assuming 3bln shares in issue.

£1 is just a pipe dream unfortunately.

Plausible for the back end of next year, but wouldn’t have thought so following the refinancing/equity raise.

Happy, your comments are more directed at retail holders, institutional investors will get the chance to participate in all parts of the equity raise so they may have a different view.

Tend to agree though, not sure why any retail holder would invest until details of the equity raise are known.

Good post Tarth, market cap was £1bln before COVID. Current prospective market cap is £600m but with $300m of debt wiped off the balance sheet, 100kbpd and the debt maturities extended. Only question for me is when do I increase my holdings.

AK, thanks for clarifying. It still makes zero sense to me, but that’s up to you what you believe. Happy to take a friendly wager if you’re so confident a placing would be at a premium.

SK, the loss was expected. The additional equity raise was forced by the creditors. Decent outcome in my view.

Rookie, the company has been saying for some tome that they will be looking to raise new equity, not sure why this is a surprise?

Equity raise would have only been successful post refinancing. Not defending the company, they’ve put themselves into this mess, but nothing all that surprising has come out of this.

You only get diluted if you let yourself get diluted.

There are ways around this AK, but unlikely to be needed imho. Have you accepted the rights issue will be at a discount to the current price and not a premium?

Alpha, why is the number of shares the company needs to issue alarming? Surely the alarming bit is the chance of equity raise failing, not the number of shares that end up in circulation.

Also, not sure what VWAP has to do with a rights issue? Price will simply be a percentage discount from the previous closing on the day it’s announced and will be agreed with the underwriters.

Bully, the poster still wont’t listen. Apparently the underwriters will just move the price up at market open?!?! Lol

Antigua, but what other options did the company have? I think part of the problem was that people perceived all was well until Wednesday, when in reality it’s quite the opposite. Without this agreement equity would have been in serious trouble, so I will never agree that this is a disaster for shareholders.