Ramblings10 Sep 2020 09:34
The capital markets day and the January RBL redetermination are now essentially company makers or breakers. By bringing forward next years redetermination the company is laying down the gauntlet to creditors, either back the company and its plans or the debt will have the be restructured. Uncomfortable reading of course, but the right move imho.
Shareholders will not be the only people feeling a little uneasy about this, the bondholders are subordinate to the RBL and although equity will be toast in any default scenario, they also stand to take some hefty losses. Okay, they’ll have hedged the debt with some short equity exposure, which would reduce losses, but extending maturities would given them the chance of returning the full value of the bond and gives the company time to execute on its plan.
Balance of probability, a deal is done to remove the liquidity issues and Rahul gets the time and breathing space he needs to turn Tullow around.