Member Info for Megla

And yet the share price is falling?

Poor strategic decision making? Selling assets in the North Sea that would be printing cash right now to buy some fixed priced gas assets.

Minimal/neutral FCF for 2022 (post capex and after receiving the North Sea earn out consideration)?

Limited exposure to rampant energy prices?

General market malaise?

Games played ahead of the tender offer?

Unsuccessful exploration?

Answers on a postcode to PO Box……

30 Million BOE (1.7bln therms) x 150p Therm (forward curve is significantly higher)

£2.5bln Revenue
£0.5bln Capex
£0.6bln Opex & G&A
£0.5bln Tax
£0.2bln ABEX

NPV = £700m / 615 million shares (including conversion) = £1.13per share

Very simplistic, but if these gas prices stick then this will likely go a lot higher.

Feel free to tell me what I've got wrong.

Because 60%+ of production is fixed priced gas

Working interest production is about 40kboepd

Entitlement production is roughly 50% of that, so 20kboepd

35%-40% is liquids, but doesn’t split out between NGL’s and Oil

Anyone got the actual oil production number?

I’d be absolutely delighted with an extra 5%. But that does suggest the current share price isn’t outrageously cheap, as some posters believe.

I think they have it about right @227p a share, which is just 5% more than yesterday’s close. I think I’ll get that in the tender.

You too :-)

Waving solid numbers lol, yes it is horrible when people use fundamentals to value a company.

Current price a little too cheap, tender offer should be better. But it isn’t outrageously cheap in my view, success with the drill bit or a decent acquisition might change that.

So no comment about Egypt’s numbers? Just a ‘why are you still here’ so you can avoid the debate on why you think this is outrageously cheap. How very unsurprising.

And for the second time, I believe the tender, or the run up to tender, will be the best time to sell.

All imho etc etc

And yet the market agrees with me, not you. Funny how people continue to get it so wrong.

You also might want to do some sums on Egypt if you think the cash is flying in.

Thinking the tender, or the run up to tender, will be the best time to cash in. Aside from the cash, it appears the market has little interest in the rest of the assets.

Squuuuzzzzzeeeeeee those shorts.

I'm sure the CEO will be desperate for the Indian payment to be made before 8th March. Especially after giving expectations of just a few weeks at the half year results. Having to explain to investors why the company is still waiting 6 months later might prove a little tricky when the company has given up hundreds of millions for a speedy resolution.

Zero update on India either.

I’ll guess we’ll just wait for payment in early 2022, whether that means.

Buying back stock below NAV adds nothing to shareholders?! You probably need to rethink that one.

I don't disagree with the sentiment of your post though, the remaining £12m is a drop in the ocean in comparison to the $700m that's coming. But at the same time, if a company has said its going to do something, then it has a duty to do it at the best possible price. Basically, it should either be completed whilst the stock is still cheap(?), or it should be pulled. Either way, the comms need to improve.

It’s pointless to buy stock when it’s cheaper? Don’t follow your logic there Ant.

Totally agree that payment will come for the same reasons you’ve outlined. But if payment is due, say sometime next week, why not utilise the remaining £12m whilst the price is still considerably under the theoretical TNAV?

We got a considerably bigger buyback to come, so holding back doesn’t make sense to me.

One theory with the buyback, which I hope is wrong….

A delay to the GOI payment is imminent, hence holding some firepower back to support the share price when the market throws it usual wobbler. Other than that, I can’t see any reason why we’re not utilising the full $20m when the company can still buy stock under the theoretical NAV/TNAV (following GOI payment).

The payment date is the 1060 million dollar question.

Investor relations guidance as of yesterday is still ‘early 2022’. I did say that wasn’t really a timeframe and that it was deliberately opaque, but that’s all us retail investors are going to get. Call me a cynic, but I would bet a fair few quid that if I was a major shareholder I would have got a little more colour on what was happening behind the scenes.

Asked about the £20m buyback and why the company wasn’t buying stock with it due to end it just over a weeks time. Was told they would ask the question and get back to me.

So in short, I got absolutely nothing of interest. The wait continues.

It is all becoming a real frustration.

The early 2022 guidance for payment is frustrating, given it isn’t really a timeframe. I know it’s deliberately opaque, but surely once we’d submitted the required information/forms, the guidance should have been updated to whatever its says in the GOI’s legislation?

Maybe the company needs to be more vocal about a drop dead date, a point at which if it isn’t paid, then the company agains pursues the full award?! After all, it was September when Mr Thompson said he hoped it would all be concluded within a matter of weeks.

Another couple of weeks isn’t a problem, but I feel very much in the dark with the lack any firm dates.

As a side note, does anyone know what’s happening with the £20m buyback? It’s due to end in 9 trading days time, yet the company isn’t buying any stock? I wouldn’t imagine the share price will get any cheaper when GOI pay their dues, so don’t get what’s happening. They might extend it again, but don’t understand the logic behind it.